Gloom

@stufflistings Perfect for studying languages with lexirise

Reading comic books on the Galaxy Z Fold8 cover display is such fun. It's like it's made for this 🤩

@jukan05 Try Lexirise to learn reading with comics :)

今天是我学中文的第一天。有什么学习建议吗？

@joedab12 Thanks, great recap

$VICR if you missed VICR at 50 60 100 150 200, I guess I didnt pound the table hard enough. Trying to do better now...this is your chance to get in while fear/panic are everywhere. They just updated their long term revenue/gm goal to 2.5b at 70% gross margin. They just signed an "all inclusive license" with an AI chip OEM(Hint, there are only two OEMS outside of CBRS who they already have, they're $NVDA and $AMD so lets assume $AMD to not sound pumpy) They just increased fab capacity at fab 1 to $1.5b about 2 months ago, was previously only $1b. They just had talks with a "very large" company about 2nd sourcing their products for them as they have too much demand for fab1(1.5b annual capacity is already spoken for). These companies aren't talking to them for fun, they KNOW VICR has the demand and are interested for very good reason. Fab 2 is being shopped for. Will have an update on progress there on this call I'm sure, said to have been making offers in June. The CEO still owns over 25% of the company-can you find any profitable/public semiconductor/AI related company with a CEO/Founder with that much skin in the game? Please let me know if you do-I've tried and failed. The ITC (international trade commission) ruled in their favor last year against Delta Electronics, Foxconn and Quanta, all huge in the power module business. Delta is 4x the size of $MPWR for reference and one of Jensens favorite suppliers. CEO has 1 large hyperscaler (almost surely $GOOG for multiple reasons, feel free to ask why i think this) and 1 OEM($AMD cuz def not enough capacity for NVDA yet) planning to ramp VPD at the end of 2027 in their 1.5b annual revenue fab. And this fab alone is only enough to get these 2 customers started. Advanced Packaging complexity(CoPos) will make VPD almost a necessity. Thats why the CEO said this to me recently:

If someone's only rebuttal to a bearish macro setup is "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent," you are not speaking to someone who actually understands risk.

@ren_stocks watching these dates like a hawk

Every passing day, the bottom for the AI buildout feels closer, and everything I keep reading is heading that way. It smells like a change of tides. Goldman's prime book just clocked the biggest week of hedge fund buying in US semis in at least three and a half years, and it landed right after the two largest back-to-back weeks of selling since June 2024. So the same funds dumping chips into the rally turned around and reloaded the moment the group pulled back. Semis are now about 10% of total hedge fund exposure, twice where they sat a year ago, though still under the 14% peak they hit in May. The selling in May and June wasn't a thesis breaking, it was profit-taking, funds trimming winners that had outrun their position limits after the AI semi basket ran more than 50% ahead of the S&P. Goldman called it rebalancing at the time. Then the pullback handed them a cheaper entry and they took it in size. That is what "the selloff is already over" looks like on a flow chart, the fast money deciding the discount won't last. I don't trade off hedge fund flows and neither should you. The flows are just Wall Street arriving at a conclusion the fundamentals reached first. Ten percent is still below the May peak, so this can keep running or it can roll right back over if earnings disappoint, and positioning this heavy is a crowded trade that cuts both ways. If TSMC and the Mag 7 miss into this, the same funds that just piled in can pile right back out. But this setup points to a bullish run if we're right about Mag 7 earnings season. Dates to watch: July 16: TSMC July 22: Google July 29: Microsoft, Meta July 30: Amazon, Apple Aug 4: AMD And the biggest of them all, Aug 26: Nvidia Overall, bullish for the AI buildout. Happy fishing this week.

@joedab12 That's fair, though I would argue semi sentiment generally derives from s&p sentiment (not sure we can see a reversal of semi stmt while broad sentiment downtrends)

@gloom_sh Fear & Greed tracks S&P, S&P is near all time high. Less than 3% away lol. Meaningless.

Sentiment getting rinsed. Almost there. Should be below 20 tomorrow.

@OdiseaInvest @ParadisLabs @askgloom compare nvda and apple cash flow

@ParadisLabs Turns out the market still likes boring cash flows more than GPU hype, who knew

Wow, that was quick. $AAPL overtakes $NVDA as the largest company globally.

@nasdaily Chinese UI is shit though

I'm sorry but Chinese software is miles ahead from what everyone realizes. ByteDance has a tiny subsidiary called Lark that beats Slack, Google Docs, Jira, and Zoom combined. We've been using it for 6 years with almost 0 bugs. It's the only all-in-one software that actually works. Yet no one knows about it.

what's interesting with the recent sell-off is the $VIX has yet to make a dramatical move

@ronny_coco @waynexonline @aleabitoreddit Only 2 more weeks

@waynexonline @aleabitoreddit Wish I saw this chart a lot earlier on!

Today, $MU announced it signed memory LTAs with $QCOM. Interesting reaction to see Micron proceeded to drop 5.37% right after. Doesn’t quite feel like there’s anything individually wrong with memory or AI names with all these structural agreements signed? More like the tail end of deleveraging / margin cascades.

@pequityresearch @edzitron Try Gloomberb instead ;)

@edzitron Cool stuff. wish i had the terminal

Entering the world of finance

@mirsblog @1ChartMaster we are gloom

Until 4 days ago Ariel was gloom and doom. He is a good trader no doubt but if you listen to him for what market will do a 24 hrs from now you will lose. He is not good at predicting, but great at reacting. Only @1ChartMaster for life as he is not in the business for predicting like Ariel constantly does and is often wrong.

@Vaelis_X Cool! You'll discover the hard part will be getting high quality data. we're working on that at gloomberb

Bloomberg Terminal costs around $30,000 a year. I asked Claude Fable 5 to build me a Bloomberg-style market terminal with real data, no fake charts and no fake numbers. It built a working version in minutes. This is what i got:

@babyfolio -20%

My usual question, how much cash are you all holding? I hold 0 cash rn.

@jukan05 try holding $HNX3 ...

Ssibal My 2x leveraged SK hynix position is getting destroyed.

@babyfolio $3HNX

Memory looks good here. I've been adding a little. What are you guys buying?

@CKCapitalxx it's a sign of the times

Can someone explain to me what’s happening?

@pequityresearch which names do you expect to capture most of the value?

Mizuho Securities: 800V DC Value Chain Power-infrastructure integrators & SST system OEMs SolarEdge $SEDG Eaton $ETN Delta Electronics $2308.TW Enphase $ENPH Schneider Electric $SU.PA ABB $ABBN.SW Vertiv $VRT Siemens $GEV Siemens Energy $ENR.DE GE Vernova $GEV Hitachi (Hitachi Energy) $6501.T Resilient Power (Eaton) $ETN Protection, connectors, switchgear, sensors Amphenol $APH TE Connectivity $TEL VizLink $3655.TW Sensata $ST LEM Holding $LEHN.SW Allegro Microsystems $ALGM Littelfuse $LLFUS Eaton $ETN Schneider Electric $SU.PA SiC crystal, substrates, wafers, epi-wafers Wolfspeed $WOLF Coherent $OHR SICC/Tianyu Advanced $688234.SH + $02631.HK Resonac $4004.T ROHM $6963.T Specialty foundry/contract wafer processing X-FAB Silicon Foundries $XFAB.PA Tower Semiconductor $TSEM GlobalFoundries $GFS Branded power semiconductors (SiC, GaN, Si MOSFETs, drivers, controllers, PMICs) Infineon $IFX.DE onsemi $ON STMicroelectronics $STM ROHM $6963.T Mitsubishi Electric $6503.T Wolfspeed $WOLF Navitas Semiconductor $NVTS Monolithic Power Systems $MPS Texas Instruments $TXN Analog Devies $ADI Renesas $6723.T Power Integrations $POWI Innosccience $2577.HK Richtek (MediaTek) $2454.TW Alpha & Omega Semi $ASOL Power modules & subassemblies Infineon $IFX.DE Mitsubishi Electric $6503.T Fuji Electric $6504.T Wolfspeed $6963.T onsemi $ON ROHM $6963.T Magnetics, capacitors, insulation, busbars, thermals TDK $6762.T Vishay Intertechnology $VSH Murata $6981.T Yageo $2327.TW Nichicon $6996.T Rogers $ROG Boyd Thermal (Eaton) $ETN EMS/contract manufacturing & rack integration Hon Hai Precision (Foxconn) $2317.TW Flex $FLEX Jabil $JBL Celestica $CLS Sanmina $SANM Lite-On Technology $2301.TW Megmeet $002851.SZ

@boring_invest Yes, two of my biggest positions.

$QCOM and $VICR have given me a real headache today. In every positive way. They almost feel too good to be true.