Greenlan Aspan

@RazorOil Thanks for your service 🫡

Good morning to all friends that love Canadian innovation and realize that 80% of the 🇨🇦 oil sands are buried too deep for open pit mining and can only be accessed through in-situ methods such as Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD). Only now…looking back, I realize I was part of something so important optimizing these extraction technologies, current production >1.7 million bbl/d 🇨🇦🫡🪒

@AcresOunces @calvinfroedge Who needs rabbits when you have Ai chips

@calvinfroedge My 80s friend won’t shut up about how there’s no rabbit meat for sale at the butcher. I tell him times change, even the butcher is gone, forget about the damn rabbits. Still night and day on and on about rabbits. You’d think he was Elmer fucking fudd, from that cartoon

Today I heard from my 65 year old friend that our 85 year old mutual bought 100 shares of micron Not kidding $mu

@qftnoise @ThHappyHawaiian Interesting theory, is the goal to drain us reserves? Or they just need cheaper oil for their economy?

@ThHappyHawaiian China is using it's much larger SPR to keep these prices low. Has the interesting side-effect of prolonging this conflict and the low prices mean the market will continue to suck the US & Japanese SPRs dry

If anything the war is escalating but oil is cliff diving? I guess we found too much oil between SPR releases and a couple ships making it through? 🤷‍♂️

@AlexanderKim120 I see. Thanks for sharing your knowledge with us. I agree with your strategy, good to see uranium being picked up by more people!

From a conservative perspective, my view is that between 2026 and 2030, the supply-demand balance is unlikely to break down immediately unless there is a massive supply shock. However, considering well-known factors such as supply inelasticity, utilities' uncontracted long-term volumes, and the timing of hyperscalers' secondary supply depletion, I have concluded that purchasing options in the 1Y-2Y segment is the most rational strategy at present. If I proceed with the actual trade, it is highly likely that I will execute a diversified investment spread across the 1Y, 2Y, and 3Y tenors. I am currently waiting on standby, as the 3Y option requires desk approval.

I'm planning to trade CMX U3O8 Futures Options OTC. We will be targeting the 1-to-2-year maturity range, as I believe there is an upside potential for the price to reach around $150. This is a move I've carefully considered for quite some time. I am confident that no other FICC desk in South Korea is attempting anything like this. We are constantly striving to upgrade our business, pushing it in a more advanced and progressive direction. Recently, we've also been developing our own electricity hedging products for the Korean market. I work on a sell-side FICC desk, and our true expertise lies in 'product development.' For nearly 20 years, most FICC desks have been stuck doing little more than interest rate or credit structuring. To widen the gap between us and the rest of the market, we have taken on numerous new initiatives throughout 2025 and 2026. We are actively seeking out blue oceans in this space and allocating lot of resources to them. I have drawn a great deal of inspiration from the many highly respected traders on X. I always have the utmost respect for them.

@calvinfroedge Worthless, AI will power everything obviously.

Month end targets for WTI

@TheWealthMiner The power of AI! This is why we are spending billions on data centres

@DonMiami3 @Whitelavender92 That's exactly the purpose of work nowadays...

@Whitelavender92 I’d think so but 70-80% of the population is sedated or kept too busy *working* to actually do anything

Whatever is on the other side of this will make 1929 look tame

@toy59496 @iwearahoodie Not Australian, but am invested in aussie mining companies. I hope you guys get a better govt soon, this looks terrible for locals.

@iwearahoodie Local investors will just be replaced by foreign investors that have zero CGT drag. It's a replacement policy to accelerate transfer of assets from Australians to foreigners. Singapore would never do this...

Small Cap Investing is Dead with a 77% spike in Tax Collection I have run 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations of portfolios of 20 Small Cap Stocks with the New Inflation Corrected CGT model versus the existing 50% CGT discount model. The results are devastating. The bottom line is that small caps are highly asymmetric bets where your small number of winners are meant to compensate you for your many losers. Mining companies are a good example of this situation and are a fundamental pillar of our national wealth. However if you tax those few winners at 47% with the trivial relative inflation correction you effectively wipe out the ability to offset your losses. This is because the tax drag on your few multi baggers is so high that it changes the entire logic of the investment process. It's become a loser's game. 1. ​The Moonshot Tax Penalty: Because Australian small caps rely heavily on a right-skewed distribution (a few massive winners offsetting many losers), the Indexation framework introduces a devastating tax penalty. For a stock that goes from $50,000 to $400,000, a 3% inflation adjustment on the original $50,000 cost basis is completely negligible. Under Indexation, you forfeit the 50% discount and pay a flat 47% on nearly the entire gain. 2. ​The Turnover Trap: With a 15% annual turnover, small-cap portfolios realize taxes continuously. Under the current system, every partial sale triggers a flat 23.5% effective tax rate, leaving more money inside the portfolio to compound. Under indexation, those early wins are hit at a full 47% clip, severely dampening the portfolio's forward compounding engine. 3. The Asymmetric Loss Failure: in small-cap investing, a stock can only ever lose 100% of its value, but explosive winners have unlimited compounding upside. The government’s asymmetric tax system completely devastates this dynamic: by replacing the flat 50% CGT discount with inflation-indexing for winners only, it leaves your nominal losses capped and completely unable to counteract the massive tax hike on your multi-baggers. Because a 3% inflation buffer barely dents a 400% moonshot gain, you end up paying a brutal, un-discounted 47% tax rate on the very winners that drive a small-cap portfolio's success, causing a 77% spike in total government tax take overall. Even in investing we see the socialist government wants us all to be the same. Communists. (Technical notes: Model executed using Gemini Pro with 1,000 portfolios of 20 stocks each with the volatility and median return typical of this class of small cap stocks over the last 10 years, using a geometric mean process to step forward each portfolio each year).

@calvinfroedge Golden age is often followed by inequality and nepotism

God, we used to be a country It's crazy how far we've fallen We had cities that were unique You could raise families There was hope, there was opportunity What happened?

@DonMiami3 Absolutely hilarious how people still believe this bs lol. More loading up chances for oil producers, I'm not complaining

Admiral General Aladeen expected to visit with Iranian officials to discuss incredible and beautiful peace in the region - made up source from a group text platform Never mind there’s no deal including Hormuz or uranium

@DonMiami3 Wti Export ban doesn't even help lower gas prices though

Export bans will come into the equation if the Strait remains closed thru mid-June

@RockBtmEntries tbh 150 inflation adjusted isnt even that high, comparing to previous supply disruptions. but of course everyone will talk about 'demand destruction' blah blah blah... who knows

~$150 Crude Oil is becoming a frightening possibility.

@nocodeonlyvibes @tleilax___ If you're going to short these, why not cvna? They're a subprime auto loan company disguised as a used car dealer

@tleilax___ I have puts on $ALLY, $BKLN and $BXMT. I think we're about to get another 2008.

It is and auto loan deliquency is one of the canary in the credit coalmine.

@DarioCpx Fake news incoming!!

👀 🚨

@GavMcCracken You like joy too? Good to see I've been validated

It's days like today I get reminded how easy it is to buy dips that the efficient market hypothesis would guarantee never exist.

@1Leg2Cents @calvinfroedge Cool. Do you need to be a US citizen?

@greenlanaspan @calvinfroedge Monetary Metals

Buy bonds they told me 60/40 reduces risk they said

@DarioCpx How much leverage does China have on Iran though. I'd assume Iran isn't exactly taking orders from them...

Is everyone thinking what I am thinking? 🤔

@Kacper_PK_CH Do you believe the cplie?

I'm truly surprised that inflation is not in double digits, well, not yet at least. Not American, so I hope this is objective, maybe not. Over half of the entire US debt was voted in or signed under Trump, over $20 trillion, not even 6 years of rule. Remarkable. Biden was equally bad with debt, did $8 trillion in 4 years, these are insane numbers.

@calvinfroedge Not when currency is being debased at this rate