grit2019
150 posts
grit2019
@grit2019
just a minnow in the polymarket ocean
Katılım Mart 2022
258 Takip Edilen2 Takipçiler
Final on this ends up being a lot, but getting the main thrust wrong (Miami) is painful despite planting the flag.
I think a lot of the analysis in my thread holds up and explains LeBron's decision though. The core of all of this is his psychological profile and the longer variance pushes him towards options that are more basketball-centric rather than emotional-centric.
The way Philly wins is him selecting contention and the highest ceiling option for his skill as an organizer on the court. To take the frame of the younger athlete one last time, to "have fun" by stomping in deep playoff runs. They offer enough depth to allow him to take time off to go West and only really need him for playoffs.
Golden State I think got too wrapped up in the mystique of this theoretical AD trade. It's easy to write post-hoc, but much reporting indicated Warriors just weren't that into it.
Lance Uppercut@LanceupperPI
Also LeBron if you deny me I will feel psychic pain.
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grit2019 retweetledi
My World Cup + Bernie mentions setup w/Kalshi Pro
Huge mentions weekend with World Cup finals, 3rd place game, and FOUR bernie rallies!
I've been using Kalshi Pro for some of these bigger multi-market events, and ran through in this video how I used it.
I may have also unintentionally shared some of my positions for this weekend in here too... oops :)
Quote tweet or reply with a screenshot or short video of how you use Kalshi Pro for a chance at access to God Mode. Video has more info!
youtu.be/ecQS_QaLVJo
YouTube
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@catboyautist Maybe I’m misssing something, but doesn’t quick fills/bid walls mean you’re up against a sharp
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Cool tool, been doing it manually
radarmentions@radarmentions
My World Cup + Bernie mentions setup w/Kalshi Pro Huge mentions weekend with World Cup finals, 3rd place game, and FOUR bernie rallies! I've been using Kalshi Pro for some of these bigger multi-market events, and ran through in this video how I used it. I may have also unintentionally shared some of my positions for this weekend in here too... oops :) Quote tweet or reply with a screenshot or short video of how you use Kalshi Pro for a chance at access to God Mode. Video has more info! youtu.be/ecQS_QaLVJo
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Challenge Question:
You can maker fill NO on a goal scorer prop at 52c when your fair value is somewhere around 54-55c. BUT, you know that shits HITTIN today.
Is it still +EV to take NO?
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Completely wild, even leaning towards the scam outcome they manage to scam the scam and reverse an entire market
50 Pence@polyint
Real crisis of confidence @Polymarket . Firing head of markets and flipping a .96c market on the same day is something only they could pull off. I would not recommend anyone bet on any contestable markets for several months.
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Lack of understanding on my end but why would they target polymarket and not UMA? Isn’t the whole point to have an ‘independent’ third party resolving issues
Burwick Law@BurwickLaw
Polymarket lawsuit:
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They’ve engagement farmed their users for the past 6 months… @shayne_coplan reel your team in
Mustafa Aljadery@mustafap0ly
who's the best in the world at building tokenomic models? DM me
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Scam aside, I’m disappointed companies are willing to pay 5k to Car, a notorious fraudster in the Polymarket space. Every paid advertisement he posts goes on my “do not use” list anyways.
Choice.markets@choice_markets
‼️Choice.Markets Official Statement: We were scammed by the KOL @CarOnPolymarket Here‘s the proof：
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@itschucksauce I remember him very clearly saying it, and yet the market didn’t bond. I thought it was crazy
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Kalshi's tagline is "trade on what you know."
I'm a very casual UFC fan. In last night's wild main event, Gaethje put Topuria in a darce (a type of BJJ choke) sometime in the 3rd round. DC shouted "DARCE CHOKE, DARCE CHOKE!" But it was a little hard to hear in the commotion.
My buddy was listening with me and he probably thought I was crazy for farming the Y on "Choke" for the rest of the fight.
DC said it again - clearly - during the fight recap, so we'll never know if Kalshi would've counted his wild screaming, but I believe they would've resolved it Y either way.
Some mild knowledge of the sport helped me here. The lesson: trade on what you know, folks! There's a market for everything.
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@radarmentions I don’t think kalshi has it figured out either. You have a few people who decide the outcome, and just yesterday they changed the rules MID market (just on a smaller scale)
That said, you’re pretty spot on with the first point
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How can anyone who works at Polymarket, uses the badge as an influencer, or invests in Polymarket see the past few months of the same old “UMA/Polymarket scams a market” and feel that this ecosystem will survive in next few years?
I used to think that Polymarket and Kalshi were real competitors, with different approaches to the market. On-chain, transparent, and nimble vs slow, steady, and regulated.
Now I see that Kalshi realized early on that there was only one path to actual viability long term.
Ecosystems like this rely entirely on network and trust. Polymarket’s brand, culture, and actions consistently lose trust. This can only cause their network to bleed.
Founders and UMA whales will profit short term, but everyone loses long term.
Kalshi users lose too. It’s better to have a market with actual competition. But it’s becoming clear that Polymarket won’t be that competitor in a few years time.
tism@errolcart
After today and watching events past few days, I've lost absolutely all trust in @Polymarket. Will be moving my weather bot and money out of the platform and my trading as well. "Microstrategy sells any bitcoin by May 31st" has just resolved to "NO". What I saw today is amongst a handful of the most blatant alleged frauds I've seen from a platform this big to its users in this space. Would be genuinely surprised if somehow this doesn't end up with much worse consequences for them. As things are standing, I have no option but to conclude this is the start of their downfall and that another platform will take it's place. I'll /c this later. Put simply but accurately: they changed the contract (buying shares with a set of conditions/rules) AFTER the agreement (purchase) and AFTER the date chosen had already passed (changed on june 1st, date was may 31st). Imagine buying a lottery ticket, winning, and when you go to claim they tell you they've decided to change the numbers. Disgusting and shameless are soft words for this. Some, as myself, would also say illegal, but that's still to be proven in front of a judge. It simply makes 0 sense to attempt any type of predictions in Polymarket, as the results of these prediction markets are not grounded in real events nor reliable sources, no matter how much they SAY they are (@arkham had recorded the sale on may 27th I believe), but on what the UMA holders find the most convenient at the time. Just reading that paragraph makes me even more disgusted. I can attempt to predict real life events, but I can't predict on what side of the bed the biggest UMA whale wakes up today. Might as well change every question to "Will UMA holders resolve/decide to...." After almost a decade of legal training, it's simply impossible for me to think this doesn't end in 1 or more lawsuits, and/or a class action. There's simply too much evidence and too much money lost. Of course it's not the first time something similar happens, but it is hands down the biggest and worst one. Many lost it all. A platform with a system that can't reflect the truth of events is unfit to be a prediction market. If a blockchain like Solana wasn't capable of reflecting the truth of its transactions, it wouldn't exist. Polymarket, in its current state, CAN NOT provide the service they claim they can provide. The fact $UMA holders (-98% in price btw) coincide with truth is just a matter of intersection of incentives. When they're misaligned (as it happened today), the truth changes, and real life events don't matter anymore. This is true I believe for any and all prediction markets in polymarket. What was the most alarming was the changing of the rule on june 1st. Changed from "occurred" (sale) to "announced". Becuase it leads me to believe there's a high chance it's not only UMA whales in this fiasco, but polymarket changing the frame (mid bet!!!) to cater them as well. I'm not leaving my money in the hands of a handful of UMA whales 1 minute more. I really wish it wasn't this way. I didn't really lose anything, unlike others. I'm just mostly disappointed, and I must embarrasingly admit a little heartbroken. Seems like just another rigged game. It would seem as if reality didn't matter in polymarket, only how much a handful of big players stand to gain.
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