Fhantom

Prediction markets just leaked the entire Spotify Wrapped a day early. In October, prediction markets leaked the Nobel Peace Prize winner the night before the announcement. This month, the same trick leaked Spotify Wrapped’s top artists. Just like Nobel site, The Spotify Newsroom blog is run on WordPress. If you know where to look, you can query when they upload new images to the media library. Anyone who studied previous years would know that Spotify uploads the Wrapped graphics there before the blog post going live. So if you’re watching that feed, you can see tomorrow’s “big reveal” today, and trade on it before any public announcement. All year, Spotify’s streaming numbers are public, so most of the prediction markets on the event were already trading above 90%, but one ranking was a big surprise. Drake was on track to finish as the #3 artist globally, ahead of the Weeknd by over 2 billion streams. On the leaked graphic, he suddenly shows up at #4. This is likely tied to Spotify’s recent lawsuit over botted streams. It looks like they filtered out a huge chunk of Drake’s streams. The market on Drake was trading >95% yesterday morning and then began to dump and this image hit the site and traders discovered it. I got rinsed because I assumed the streaming numbers were static. Turns out Spotify can (and did) rewrite the data. Spotify wrapped officially drops tomorrow, but if you take a quick online web scraping course, you can figure out the whole list a day early!

We are LIVE with @probaaron from Kalshinomics discussing oil markets and other PMs. Tune in! twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1…

Genuinely embarrassing for Dems to propose this bill. All of these actions are *ALREADY* illegal. So this doesn’t solve our problems which is failing to enforce against illegal offshore entities. The Dodd Frank changes already made it illegal to have prediction markets on war, assassination, terrorism or ANY illegal act. CEA § 6(c)(1) (7 U.S.C. § 9(1) and CFTC Rule 180.1 (17 CFR § 180.1) make ANY insider trading illegal. The problem is illegal offshore exchanges are ignoring these laws even when they have a US nexus. Why? Trump’s CFTC gutted the enforcement division of the CFTC so offshore entities target Americans unchecked. If @ChrisMurphyCT and @RepCasar are serious about solving this problem (which we should) then it’s EASY: 1. Tie CFTC funding to maintaining a minimum enforcement division. 2. Let enforcement division bypass commissioners and get approval from Ag committee if they are blocked on enforcement. 3. Clarify that US nexus applies to any market that *relates* to the US as well. 4. Don’t approve US regulated entities if they have a related/arms-length offshore entity that violates US nexus rules. The bill as currently written does NOTHING to stop the abuses that exist. It duplicates existing laws and then kills “markets where outcome is known” which would include actual financial options/events contracts on the NASDAQ which are used in hedging and financial insurance. If Murphy and Casar aren’t just after populist headlines and really want to solve this problem, this is entirely the wrong bill - and seems misguided and uninformed to the point it’s embarrassing.

@PredictParity What about by market category? I’m trying to research crypto price markets (will Bitcoin be above x by y), curious the results there

Prediction Market Accuracy 1d before resolution Out of 146,960 resolved markets. Odds at 50% are the most mispriced. Interestingly both platforms have a negative bias meaning these markets consistently overprice yes as a outcome.

@probaaron 10 million max entries in the T&C (& excludes NY + FL residents)

which costs Kalshi more in expected value to offer?

In the past day, I have been receiving numerous emails and texts from Polymarket gamblers demanding that I make an incorrect (and incredibly inconsequential) change to one of my reports. It has gotten to the point that these addicts are now publishing a fabricated response that I supposedly wrote to one of them. My message to you gamblers is simple: fuck off, stop harassing me, and find a better hobby than falsifying journalistic reports for financial gain.

@DeepDishEnjoyer schrodinger’s mine

I’m live with @IvanCryptoSlav talking our outlooks on the Iran War, tune in!

Hivemind is LIVE with Ivan & Fhantom. A busy week in PMs, join the conversation now! twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1…

One of the craziest things we've found: Andrew Tate might be insider trading on Polymarket Odds for tweet markets are normally set by accurate market-making bots But two days ago, market odds for Tate tweeting >100 times moved from 18% to 90% At the time of the flip, Andrew had only sent 32 tweets over 4 days, which meant the market was inexplicably giving a 90% chance of him increasing his tweet rate by 2.5x, despite no indication that he was picking up speed (more in replies)

@PredMTrader x.com/PlusEVAnalytic…

Its undeniable that an exchange model is more favorable than sportsbooks based on where the incentives lie (one profits from user losses while the other fees) There's been a lot of negative press on PMs lately as they've grown dramatically that I sometimes think people forget just how awful sportsbooks can be It also drives me crazy seeing sportsbooks launch their own "prediction markets" that are completely unusable between not being able to post liquidity and outrageous fees - I don't even know how they can be considered a market.

@benwfreeman1 Let's see the betslip

🚨MAJOR ALPHA ALERT: GUYS, I JUST INTERVIEWED A CANDIDATE FOR ATTORNEY GENERAL WHOSE MARKET IS ON KALSHI Sometimes, you can find the biggest edges in the lowest volume markets

@PredMTrader @benwfreeman1 What he lacks in alpha he gains in aura

@benwfreeman1 The alpha is somewhat lacking in this post but I’ll let it slide

When I was walking in to Talarico rally, this woman goes “a young attractive white man with cowboy boots? We need all of your friends to come to the polls tomorrow, and we’re guaranteed to win” And then she asked to take a picture with me lol

We are LIVE with Ben Freeman & Scottilicious with a preview of the Texas Senate Primary Tune in and join the conversation! twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1…

@benwfreeman1 Don't forget about the Hive stream (or stream live from the event and ask her a question!)

Should I try to go to both the Crockett and Talarico event tonight? The Crockett event is from 5-6:15 PM CST The Talarico event is from 6-8 PM CST They are about a 30 minute drive without traffic, but probably a 60 minute drive with rush hour traffic. I'm so conficted!

@mwfowlie @mansourtarek_ Funny enough, the arb in this market was by buying N Kalshi and Y Polymarket, so you would've had a double win. 95c paying around 170c

@mansourtarek_ "No trader lost money on this market" Clearly false. What of all the people arbing between Kalshi and Polymarket?

As an exchange, we resolve the market according to the rules, even when there is disagreement with the resolution. I understand many of you are frustrated about the Khamenei market, and I want to clear up a few things along with steps we have taken to improve: The market rules were not changed. The death carveout and settlement based on last-traded-price were part of the published market rules from the outset (see the screenshot from the rules, which can also be found in our official filing from 2025 on the CFTC website). The death carveout was also always shown on the market page (see market page below). Once the strikes on Iran started, we added the “Green Box” to further highlight the death carveout in the UI (this is not a rule change, just a highlight of the rules). We settled according to the rules. Traders were paid based on the last traded price. Some traders who held YES feel like they should have won (as in the market should have settled to YES). But the rules clearly stated that the market would not settle to YES in the event of death: traders expect us to settle the market based on the rules and we have to apply the rules consistently for both YES and NO holders; changing settlement because one side is unhappy would break trust in the exchange (imagine you held NO and you read the rules, but then we decided to settle contrary to the rules). Death carveouts are important; as a federally regulated prediction market, we are required and feel it is important not to enable direct profiting from war, assassination, terrorism, or other violent outcomes. No trader lost money on this market. While the rules were clear and we tried our best to highlight them, traders vocalized they were not prominent enough. We heard you, and we decided to reimburse out of pocket for all fees and all net losses from trading in the market: 1. If you sold for a net loss before settlement, we reimbursed you for that net loss and 2. if you didn’t recoup your position cost during settlement, we paid you the difference so you get your full position cost back. You can find reimbursements under "Your activity" in the app and website. No trader ended net-negative after our reimbursements. Kalshi did not profit on this market. We do not stand to benefit from one resolution or the other. We earn fees from facilitating trades. For this market, we reimbursed all fees back to users. We also reimbursed net losses users incurred on the market out of pocket, so no trader ended net negative. As a result, Kalshi incurred a substantial loss to make users whole. We will improve. We learned a lot from this market. We are updating how we present similar markets (e.g., those with a death carveout or where a death might be a likely scenario) so traders can see the exception more clearly before they trade. We will surface the exception in the title and at the top of the market page. We also recognize that the first iteration of the Green Box warning created confusion; we revised it and reimbursed net losses for the market. Going forward, we are implementing a tighter review process for UI highlights. The best part about Kalshi is you all and I'm sorry for the disappointment. We'll improve, thank you for bearing with us.

It's hilarious that the entire course of history would be different if Khamenei just checked the Polymarket odds before meeting above ground with all his allies on the day with the highest probability of war starting

Wow. Kalshi really is becoming more and more like draftkings every day.

@DeepDishEnjoyer @spinons The bad (reversed and refunded) clarifications yesterday had no impact on this guys bet months ago.

@spinons x.com/Itsjoeco/statu…

imagine trusting kalshi lmfao

Wrote a bunch of words about betting on Iran at prediction markets last night. nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/the-chaos-of…

I for one, will wait for @benwfreeman1’s analysis of the situation before reserving any judgement.