Fhantom

Prediction markets just leaked the entire Spotify Wrapped a day early. In October, prediction markets leaked the Nobel Peace Prize winner the night before the announcement. This month, the same trick leaked Spotify Wrapped’s top artists. Just like Nobel site, The Spotify Newsroom blog is run on WordPress. If you know where to look, you can query when they upload new images to the media library. Anyone who studied previous years would know that Spotify uploads the Wrapped graphics there before the blog post going live. So if you’re watching that feed, you can see tomorrow’s “big reveal” today, and trade on it before any public announcement. All year, Spotify’s streaming numbers are public, so most of the prediction markets on the event were already trading above 90%, but one ranking was a big surprise. Drake was on track to finish as the #3 artist globally, ahead of the Weeknd by over 2 billion streams. On the leaked graphic, he suddenly shows up at #4. This is likely tied to Spotify’s recent lawsuit over botted streams. It looks like they filtered out a huge chunk of Drake’s streams. The market on Drake was trading >95% yesterday morning and then began to dump and this image hit the site and traders discovered it. I got rinsed because I assumed the streaming numbers were static. Turns out Spotify can (and did) rewrite the data. Spotify wrapped officially drops tomorrow, but if you take a quick online web scraping course, you can figure out the whole list a day early!

@HiveLiveHQ @prophet_notes Just woke up to this, this is now the 3rd time I’ve lost a 95c ME market while I’m sleeping

This market just FLIPPED for a 70x!!! Originally added to be a tangential proxy for controversial “Will Iran be Attacked” markets, the Polymarket for Iran Airspace Closure seemed to go Y on a technicality A NOTAM over Iran was posted today, despite no military action, and sent the market to 99c Unexpectedly, the Iranian aviation authority released a statement saying the purported airspace closure was fake news and Iran hadn’t actually implemented any new airspace closure The market quickly crashed to pre-NOTAM levels. Many whales were caught bonding the market >95c. Other traders who noticed the Iranian denial made up to 70x in a few minutes

@JexTrade @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @PolymarketDevs Can I add "Scammer" to certain people

New Feature Ship: Roles on JexTrade Trader profiles! Check out the roles for legendary Polymarket trader Domah All roles are community provided and edited!

@Deebs_DeFi @CarOnPolymarket Your first problem is Car being someone you respect.

This is ridiculous but I have to say something There's a fake narrative that Bubblemaps shared a "Insiders list" on 60 minutes with known traders like Scottynooo included A narrative even @CarOnPolymarket (someone I respect) has said IT'S 100 % FALSE. That image you see in the bottom right is NOT an insiders list. Its just a list of all Polymarket accounts that bet Yes that the US would strike Iran by February 28th. That's it! It's a screen grab from a tool we used to start our investigation and look for connections. If you read our full report (linked below) you will know we did a lot more analysis and only found 9 accounts that are connected and suspects for insider trading. There is no list with known traders like 50 pence or Scottynooo included. Please if you know Car, I kindly ask you reach out and ask him to read the full report. A lot of people jumped to conclusions today Thanks

Taker-side volume on the platform, a close proxy for handle, is now exceeding $200 million per day, ahead of the top sportsbooks’ handle. Even lower-bound estimates of an equivalent to handle this quarter could match DraftKings and FanDuel.

Polymarket will remove the affiliate badge of slop posters, but while @CarOnPolymarket performs dozenth pump & dump, he is still affiliated with the platform. Here is him trying to get people to buy into a market that has already resolved, but due to a bug is still tradeable.

Oh my god... Polymarket just HALTED TRADING on the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market during a heated dispute. The team is due to announce a clarification in 30 minutes but the markets have all been removed. This has NEVER happened before on Polymarket. What's going on?

@mrpredict69 @BlondiePredicts

@BlondiePredicts ATP/WTA doesn’t run ads saying you can pay your rent by participating tho. Big diff.

“Only a small % of traders make money” .. yeah same with tennis players, that’s literally what being elite means in any industry pick a new headline

@GaetenD @DustinGouker Skill issue

@DustinGouker Yeah for sure. And that's a fair criticism. You probably won't catch up on your rent by stumbling upon Kalshi!

My “people lose less at a prediction markets than they do at sportsbooks but most of them still lose” t-shirt has people asking a lot of questions already answered by my shirt.

@PredMTrader Ur a bot

This is a weird article They loosely define "bots" as anyone who does more than 50 trades per day or 1,000 over a 15 month period. I have done 26k trades in 2026 alone. While I'm obviously not representative of an average user, its very odd to use such a faulty definition and then run with this narrative on "bots". Feels very forced for no reason. They then say "retail investors, despite being correct, are losing money". Their definition of being "correct" would be buying something at 75 cents that has a 55% chance of occurring. This is very obviously not "correct". Bots are not even a bad thing. Some variation of algorithmic trading exists in almost all markets. For prediction markets, "bots" are very important for providing liquidity. Its fair to talk and be transparent about the distribution of winners on PMs but this piece was just a really weird framing.

So we did a little street side research in downtown Las Vegas when we were at the Prediction Markets Conference. Can you tell who attended and who didn't? lol More serious panel with Domer will be posted tomorrow but for now let's have fun!

We just walzed into the most interesting conference in Las Vegas as special guests at @predictionconlv ... @ishmilly is a great organizer, so far we met some cool peeps and shared an expert panel with the one and only @Domahhhh. We'll post that later but for now here's a fun intro:

Hey there, quick disclaimer: Car is actively buying NO on an alt to cover his YES shares, in case anyone actually thought he had principles.

@deepvaluebettor @hanakoxbt @kreoapp Why try and give advice. They’re all lying grifters, absolutely everyone.

@hanakoxbt this makes ur brand look completely unserious @kreoapp . promoting shameless larpers puking blatant slopaganda .

a Citadel intern told me something at a party he probably shouldn't have it was on a rooftop in brooklyn. i mentioned i trade prediction markets. he got quiet for a second. "we have a model for that. it scores every contract on four factors. when all four align we enter. when any breaks we exit. that's it" i asked what the four factors are. he looked around. then said it fast like he was confessing. "cross-market divergence. disposition coefficient. capital velocity. pair network correlation" I didn't know what half of that meant. but i memorized it. went home. 11pm. opened Claude. "here are four scoring factors from a quant fund. build a terminal that runs all four on prediction markets" Claude asked one question: "Where's the data?" I sent him one repo: github.com/warproxxx/poly… 86 million trades. every wallet. every entry. every outcome three weeks later i'm sitting in my apartment watching a screen i barely understand print money. the disposition meter alone changed everything. it measures how you exit - not how you enter. top wallets capture 86% of winner value and cut losers at 12%. everyone else captures 58% and holds losers to 41%. same exact entries. the exits make it a completely different game. capital velocity: 49x. every dollar gets recycled 49 times before the average trader recycles once. the terminal found 42 pair correlations across 11 markets. when MSFT beats Q3 is priced at 80c but the model reads 93% - it enters. when the gap closes 2 hours later - it exits. no opinions. no news. just four numbers that either align or don't. his fund runs this with a floor of PhDs and $800M AUM. my setup: > Claude - $20/month > VPS - $5/month > poly_data repo - free > Polymarket API - free $25/month. no team. no office. no Bloomberg. 280 trades so far. 70% win rate. $800 seed. four bots splitting the work: pulse_alpha +$299. arb_hunter +$558. trend_rider +$337. cal_engine +$719. +$11,514 total. copytrade here: @1743116" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">kreo.app/@1743116 he texted me last week. "delete everything i told you" too late.

@PredMTrader What was the lowest strike that hit

An absolute masterpiece by Mamdani in his 100 Day address He hit almost every single mention market strike

@PredMTrader PREDatoryMTrader

I don’t really get the fear that someone would “artificially” prop up the odds of a candidate on a prediction market. There are a lot of sharp market participants that would love to take the other side of an inflated price. Like how would this even work in practice? Someone will post a ton of liquidity at an inflated price for millions of dollars and you think people wouldn’t rush to take the other side? I could maybe see someone market buying an illiquid book to distort the price for like a minute but it seems pretty far fetched that this would influence an outcome.

@Domahhhh @CSP_Trading In theory everyone thought Bruce Buffer was announcing the official result, only 30 minutes later did anyone notice that the scorecard was different than what was read out

@FhantomBets @CSP_Trading IMHO, you can expire it off the unofficial result IF you're able to modify it if the official result is different. But you def CAN'T expire it off an unofficial if the payout is unchangeable. You have to wait for the official. So, yeah, agreed, a very clear f--- up here

Lol the dumbfucks over at kalshi resolved a UFC market wrong, and instead of reversing it/paying out the winners out of their own pocket, they just changed the rules so that they arent on the hook anymore

@Domahhhh @CSP_Trading The scorecard always existed, it was just tabulated and announced incorrectly, Kalshi resolved the market after Bruce Buffer incorrectly announced the winner but before the scorecard showing the tie was first published by UFC

@CSP_Trading Fascinating. At what point is the announced result officially official? Was it officially a result, and then later altered -- or was it tentatively a result, and the later modification was done before the result was final? What was the time delta involved?

@Bob69Barker420 @CSP_Trading There was no revision to the underlying. Kalshi resolved before the scorecards were published, the scorecards always showed a draw

@CSP_Trading "Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value" has been standard language in the full rules for most of their contracts (both sports and non-sports) for years now

lmao theyre doubling down! i assumed this was just a rule change for future games, but they are actually sticking to their guns on the UFC game they graded incorrectly. SORRY KALSHI TARDS, NO REFUNDS!!!

@VanillaVICE @Polymarket It’s an invite code. If you haven’t gotten access yet you put that code in at the beginning and it will give you the money at the end of registration

@Polymarket where is this “code” field