Hamish

@carrascalcaro1 @johnennis And those businesses will fail.

@hamishgryan @johnennis Next year, businesses will realize that the best way to implement AI is by completely redesigning the entire process. Agency is key: you let the AI system control everything except the inputs. And agency is advancing at lightning speed this year.

If you have a health problem and you talk to surgeons, they will tell you that you need surgery If you talk to nutritionists, they will tell you there’s something wrong with your diet And if you talk to chiropractors, they will tell you that your back is out of alignment None of these group groups is being dishonest, it’s just how they see the world That’s why it is not surprising that people at the top AI labs think that AI can solve all problems, and hence think it will take all the jobs But this is just a myopic world view - the fact that they are at these labs in the first place makes their opinion less likely to be true, not more likely

@Kevin70064749 @johnennis What’s your role? What are you living though? Can you point to any evidence whatsoever for your view?

I’m not assuming anything, I’m living it! It’s literally my role. The frontier models providers assessment are right, even their time lines are right. Because you can’t see what they really have! They are slow rolling it. What’s your point? You think these guys are wrong? How?

@carrascalcaro1 @johnennis Where’s the evidence for that? I don’t see displacement anywhere. This is the same level of delusion as the “expert systems” era before the last AI winter

@johnennis Everything that consists of information processing is going to be replaced by AI. And many jobs can be reduced to nothing more than information processing.

@HundredCarWar @gfodor Did I miss some revolution in robotics. What are you people on about?

@gfodor Everyone comparing this to the Industrial Revolution confuses a phase vs gradient change. If we can just print dudes with arbitrarily high IQ and endless stamina, we are not going to just be taking "different jobs." Brother, you are nicheless.

Imagine the prices of all goods and services were slashed by 1000x, but if you tried to find a job, raise money for a startup, or sell anything yourself you’d find no counterparty whatsoever. Now imagine that’s true for most people. What’s the logical solution to this?

@TychosElk12 @dmesg @StatisticUrban We’ll be similarly embarrassed by the naivety of the hype. Both NFTs and LLMs we be useful in some form, in the future, once we’ve crossed the troughs of despair in their respective hype cycles

@dmesg @StatisticUrban Do you actually bel8eve this? How much would you be willing to bet and at what odds? Or is this just tribal signalling?

Reminder: there is a good chance this is the least AI will ever matter again.

@drewcoffman Well then there’s 4 years left on the clock, and he hasn’t publicly revised this prediction.

why is no one talking about the fact that this clip that won’t get off my timeline is from 2025 what is going on here exactly

@TXMCtrades @iamterryhi @Dmitry_210 Like what? Just give one example

@iamterryhi @Dmitry_210 Intelligence does not negate physics, my friend. There are real world constraints that no amount of smart robots can negate.

"Everyone can have a penthouse if they want" ...

@TXMCtrades @autist458 @Dmitry_210 Is a bit naive, but do you have an argument against it? Saying it’s complex, and citing “burden of proof” is just a complete cop out. Default cynicism, with zero justification, doesn’t make you look smart

@autist458 @Dmitry_210 It is in fact extremely complex and none of his explanations do it justice

@DickLeaky2 @Dmitry_210 @TXMCtrades You’re missing the point. Are you abjectly autistic?

@Dmitry_210 @TXMCtrades If everyone lived in a penthouse then either the rest of the hotel/building is empty, or that person lives in the entire building. It’s abjectly retarded

@davidalisk @simonsarris @benclarkson Even when you consider exported emissions, it’s roughly the same raw numbers, and definitely directionally the same.

@simonsarris @benclarkson They’re manufacturing a lot more stuff. It’s not a fair comparison

It's very funny. When I was an active climate activist people would always respond to our arguments with "what about China?" - now China has lapped us environmentally.

@Scobleizer @VitalikButerin That’s no evidence of any of this. I actually want it to be true, but we’re so far from humanoid robots, and language models aren’t well rounded enough to replace 95% of jobs. It’s all cope

I'm a slow learner. And a minor in economics. I interviewed @VitalikButerin back when he was just starting. He developed Ethereum. If I was fast I would have bought some. When I interviewed him an Ethereum cost $2. Today it costs a LOT more. Same with understanding the new economic model that's coming. People in San Francisco say "don't worry about jobs, we are headed toward an age of abundance." Hard to get on that train as I see family and friends struggling economically after getting laid off. But this message from @elonmusk made it all click for me. We are, indeed, headed into a world where AI and robots do most of our current jobs. Anthropic's own engineers believe that AI will be able to do half of all jobs within two years, I heard from an investor who recently gave a speech there and asked them. We all feel it and know it. AI is taking away our jobs. Been seeing many messages along these lines on X's AI community. And normies are hating AI for it. We all hate change, even me. The only real answer is not to slow down, but accelerate through this moment of pain. I recently had dinner with a woman who is running a new construction robot company. Her robot can tie rebar 6x faster than a human. And the humans who do that job? They have the highest injury rate in construction, she told me. Robots don't get hurt. If we accelerate we get to the world where AI agents and robots do all of our shitty jobs. Which, let's be honest, almost all jobs suck. I've had jobs all my life and had some of the best ones that humans can ever have (I got paid to walk around Microsoft with a video camera, remember). Even that job sucked. A robot could do that even better. Here is proof of that. Asked Grok to simulate a conversation on this topic between a simulated Robert Scoble and a simulated Elon Musk: grok.com/share/bGVnYWN5… In 10 years when there are millions of Optimus, or other humanoids, walking around, they will be able to do even our most "fun" jobs. Which will leave us to do new jobs. Like setting up shop in a Holodeck that most people don't yet see. Or building new things for robots to do. Like entertainment most people can't yet see either. Grok lays it out. Acceleration is the right answer. Get us through this period of maximum pain fast so we can get on the other side where there is a lot of fun to be had.

@itsrickyszn @ylecun @Ph_Aghion @erikbryn

@ylecun @Ph_Aghion @erikbryn > listen to an economist

Dario is wrong. He knows absolutely nothing about the effects of technological revolutions on the labor market. Don't listen to him, Sam, Yoshua, Geoff, or me on this topic. Listen to economists who have spent their career studying this, like @Ph_Aghion , @erikbryn , @DAcemogluMIT , @amcafee , @davidautor

@0bservationism @Gnu352 @ChrisEconomist @peter_tulip Egypt is an underdeveloped shithole. Try Tokyo, Shanghai, Mexico City or New York. I doubt you’ll find that people are any less happy than their rural peers. You’re talking utopian lefty drivel

@hamishgryan @Gnu352 @ChrisEconomist @peter_tulip Modern megacities are amongst the worlds least happy places tf are you getting ur information from? The densest cities in the world are also amongst the most unlivable, such as Cairo, the most livable city on earth is Melbourne, which is much lower density comparatively.

Most of us choose to live and work in proximity to many other people. Because dense cities create jobs and high wages. Agglomeration economies outweigh congestion. On balance, the externalities of density are positive, not negative; but our policies mistakenly assume the opposite

@BFD19002956 @RazeBannon @TFTC21 No, that’s cope. There’s no evidence they’re directionally advancing that way. The current generation of models aren’t any better than the last ones for the kind of reasoning I’m talking about. The underlying technology is just fundamentally unsuited for it.

@hamishgryan @RazeBannon @TFTC21 Within years as the original post is talking about

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei: “50% of all tech jobs, entry-level lawyers, consultants, and finance professionals will be completely wiped out within 1–5 years.”

@RestoreAussies @dolphinsands Australia is a trash country full of lucky bogans. “Multicultural slop” watering that down, is a good thing.

@dolphinsands Sadly mass migration is slowly turning it into a nowhere city full of anywheres. A multicultural slop if you will.

Sydney is one of the great cities. People seem at ease, free, healthy, attractive, confident, open. There’s a freshness & energy which has gone missing in Europe & the US. It’s what America thinks it is but isn’t any longer.

@AlanDillon26041 @Strange_G

@Strange_G They got to confident, had the end game all planned. Didn't realise so many were awoken.

I’m old enough to remember The Matrix. That moment when he starts dodging bullets, that shift, when everything slows and the illusion breaks. That’s exactly where we are now. Those who can see clearly aren’t guessing, we’re reading through it in real time, the narratives don’t land anymore. The propaganda has nowhere to stick. At some point, it comes down to a choice really 🤷🏻‍♀️ keep echoing IRGC-aligned talking points and recycled globalist scripts, or step out of it entirely. Once you see it, you don’t go back.

@AlanDillon26041 @Strange_G

@Strange_G @axe_nz Grow up. How old are you?

@axe_nz But we were awake My sadness is about some of us who saw what was happening, have gone and fallen to the Islamist irgc narrative. Anti Jew, anti Trump. Right now, literally batting for the globalist. wtf

@BFD19002956 @RazeBannon @TFTC21 I don’t know, it just doesn’t. Claude Opus produces very flawed legal analysis. It hallucinates sources and misses logical connections. It’s just really bad. Maybe okay for simple stuff like property transactions

@hamishgryan @RazeBannon @TFTC21 why couldnt AI compose an argument based on knowledge of the law. it would recall the law and be up to date far better and quicker than any human.

@Freedtrader @RazeBannon @TFTC21 And also an expert in cases that never happened. AI is appalling at legal arguments

@RazeBannon @TFTC21 You can have an AI agent who is an expert in every legal case ever argued by your lawyer for next to nothing.