rayh
4K posts

rayh
@harrinrayj
Catholic libertarian. Happily married.

Man, I'll be one of the first to say things aren't perfect...but worse than the GFC?? Worse than 9/11?? Folks, GDP is growing at 4% this quarter and the stock market is at all-time highs I realize that this prosperity isn't equally distributed, but trust me -- take today's conditions and then plunge in country into a recession plus a prolonged bear market & things can get MUCH worse










Let’s be honest. Warsh at the Fed. Kevin Warsh’s arrival at the Federal Reserve is not a personnel change. It is a regime change attempt inside an institution built to prevent one. A supply-sider now runs a central bank hard-wired for Keynesian demand management, and the machine is already resisting the new code. The next mistake is visible in plain sight. Keynesians on Wall Street and inside the Fed are treating a supply shock as if it were a demand boom and calling for tighter money. This is dogma masquerading as seriousness. A chokepoint in the Strait of Hormuz, a jump in energy prices, and a cost shock rolling through transport, food, and manufacturing are not evidence of overheated demand. They are evidence of a damaged supply side. Monetary policy cannot reopen a shipping lane. It cannot pump more oil. It cannot repeal geopolitics. It can only crush demand somewhere else, usually with a lag, and usually in the most interest-rate-sensitive corners of the economy first, housing, commercial real estate, capital spending, and durables. Those sectors did not close the Strait. They are simply first in line to pay for the Fed’s intellectual mistakes. That is the Keynesian reflex in its purest form. Every price spike becomes “inflation.” Every inflation scare requires a rate move. Every rate move is advertised as proof of resolve. It is nonsense. A change in relative prices caused by a supply shock is not the same thing as an inflationary spiral. Pretending otherwise is how central banks turn an external shock into a domestic recession. Machiavelli explained why change is so hard. The innovator makes enemies of everyone who did well under the old order and wins only lukewarm defenders among those who might benefit from the new. Christensen gave the same warning in corporate language. Incumbent institutions kill disruptive change because their processes, incentives, and prestige are built around the existing model. That is the real problem Warsh faces. The resistance is not incidental. It is structural. The test for Warsh is not whether he can sound tough on television. It is whether he can resist the Wall Street catechism that every supply shock must be met with tighter money. If he hikes rates into a supply-driven price spike to prove his anti-inflation credentials, he will not have broken with the Keynesian regime. He will have submitted to it. This is not the 1970s. Expectations are not unanchored, and the productive economy is already scarred by years of policy excess, fiscal decadence, and institutional bias. The hope is that Warsh understands the difference between inflation and a supply shock, ignores the Keynesian pundits, and refuses to compound one policy error with another.


Passive S&P 500 funds could have to buy roughly 19% of public SpaceX shares within 6mo under fast-tracking framework (it would enter the index at the est 6th spot), Russell 1000 and Nasdaq 100 may buy another 5.5% within weeks of the IPO. Thrown in active MFs benchmarked to those indices and you get to HALF of SpaceX shares. Nice study from my colleague @rduboff


Shout out to the guy on the porch who watched this entire scenario unfold and just sat there.



The latest IQ test involves data centers and water.

“@elonmusk is probably doing more for America than any other American.” “He's single-handedly bringing manufacturing back to America.” “He's revived defense tech.” “SpaceX is in some ways the most important defense contractor in America.” “What he's doing with Starlink is amazing for the world.” “He's creating all these blue collar manufacturing jobs. “He's done more than any living human to de-carbonize the world.” “And if you’re upset about data centers on Earth—here you go!” @GavinSBaker with @patrick_oshag on @InvestLikeBest



People completely miss the most important thing about Tesla FSD It’s not just about convenience. It’s not a "cool self-parking trick." It’s about the fact that car crashes are the #1 killer of healthy people aged 5-29 globally and one company has gathered over 10 billion miles of real-world data to actually solve it Look at the recent data: Tesla just became the FIRST vehicle to pass NHTSA's new ADAS safety tests. Not the first EV. The first vehicle. Period. The reality is harsh but simple. Countries that approve FSD get safer roads overnight. Countries that delay will literally watch their citizens die in preventable crashes while bureaucrats sit in meeting rooms debating "safety." The "safety" argument against FSD is officially dead






What’s the greatest opening riff in rock history?





