You’re On Your Own - YOYO🇺🇸

@Defence_Index Global? It’s not a regional power of any consequence.

🇬🇧 BREAKING: UK is no longer a global power, says FT The UK must accept that its role on the world stage has diminished and it can no longer operate as a major global power, according to a report in the Financial Times.

@Rep_Stansbury Aw. Too bad for you.

Just because a President announces he’s agreed to a two week ceasefire moments before he threatened to commit war crimes, does not mean he is suddenly fit to serve. #25thAmendment

@Alladdin1983 The Iranians probably only have spotty chain of command communications left. It’s going to take a while to get word down the line.

Breaking: just after the ceasefire was announced Tel Aviv was just hit. You can hear multiple explosions.

@no_itsmyturn @wajacobson What is said is one thing. What is done is another. We’ll see.

Iranian 🇮🇷 FM Abbas Araghchi: Iran will halt attacks if strikes on Iran are halted; safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran's Armed Forces. This already does not sound like "COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz."

@Faytuks So Iran’s leadership, military, military infrastructure are decimated. The country is laid low but they have won? Fanatical insanity. If the strait is opened, they have surrendered their only leverage. Regime change coming up, without US boots on the ground.

Iran's Supreme National Security Council calls this a "crushing defeat" for the US, saying that they've been forced to accept their 10-point plan. Iran claims the US has agreed to continued Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz

@financialjuice If the strait opens, we will all know who blinked.

Iran State TV: Trump's humiliating retreat from anti-Iran rhetoric. Trump accepts Iran terms for ending the war

@SecRubio Hopefully.

@JayTC53 @MissyE2024 Wait until the strait is actually opened. Nothing is settled until that happens.

Iran "Death to America" Trump "We will end your civilization" Democrats "OMG Trump is unhinged, we need better morals" Take your "morals" and shove it! These savages only understand one thing. It's strength not weakness.

@RealTraderJill Let’s see if the strait actually gets opened. These are fanatical lunatics.

Crazy, you say? 25th Amendment, you say? This is president "Wild Card" achieving a cease fire, and Iran willing to capitulate and open the Strait. Oh ye of little faith!

@Polymarket The same vibe as the old, “No one will be allowed entry after the movie starts”, hype from the ‘60s.

BREAKING: Anthropic claims their next-generation AI is "too powerful" to be released to the public, will restrict preview access to ~40 major tech companies.

@GSGB01 It should be.

🚨BREAKING: A royal expert has warned that King Charles 'snubbing' Easter could lead to the collapse of the British monarchy. Is the monarchy in its final days?

@FalconUpdatesHQ Always the last line of rhetoric before complete collapse.

BREAKING 🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇮🇷 “The use of a new, secret weapon will begin soon and it will bring an end to the enemy’s operations.” ~ Iranian Major General Abdollahi

@BenGrahamUK @HBCampbellJR You are a joke. The “becoming” part is long over.

The HMS Dragon has been forced back to port because it can’t produce fresh water. This is the Royal Navy that once ruled the seas. Now it can’t even handle the basics. We’re becoming a joke on the global stage.

@LeadingReport “Report” from the fever swamps.

BREAKING: Some military commanders may be preparing to defy unlawful orders that disobey the U.S. Constitution, according to retired Lieutenant General Mark Hertling, per MS NOW.

@ElliotMackness @UKDefJournal All good except for the fact that the UK has no naval presence to speak of any longer.

@UKDefJournal The UK needs to reinforce the islands with a strong naval and aerial presence. Any threats to the sovereign people of the Falklands should be taken seriously, with a solid response

Chile has declared its support for Argentina's claim over the Falkland Islands, according to a joint statement issued following a meeting between the two countries’ leaders. Click image for more. ukdefencejournal.org.uk/chile-backs-ar…

@EU_Commission Healthcare is a service. You do not have a right to a service provide by someone else. That is totalitarian by definition.

Healthcare is a basic right. Not a privilege. Not a luxury. This World Health Day, we stand for access, protection, and care for all.

@jeffreytucker Settle down there big fella. Seems on brand. Not pleasant but on brand.

This legit feels like a Constitutional crises. "Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments...transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President."

I had to check if this is real. It is. Easter morning.

@DrRitaDed Or just accept the sentiment and go on with life

Reminder: Not everyone celebrates Easter. Do not wish me or them a happy Easter without consent.

@shanaka86 @wmiddelkoop And you believe him.

JUST IN: Iran’s Foreign Minister posted five sentences on X on April 4 that should have stopped every government in the Gulf. “Israel-U.S. have bombed our Bushehr plant four times now. Radioactive fallout will end life in GCC capitals, not Tehran.” He compared it to Western outrage over Zaporizhzhia in Ukraine and accused the attackers of double standards. The IAEA confirmed the fourth strike: a projectile hit near the site, one guard killed, a support building damaged. No radiation increase was detected. The containment held. This time. The physics of why the fallout would reach Riyadh and not Tehran is geography that no amount of diplomacy can change. Bushehr sits on the Persian Gulf coast at 28 degrees north. Tehran is 750 kilometres inland, shielded by the Zagros Mountains. The prevailing winter winds blow from the northwest to the southeast, directly across the Gulf toward the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province. The anticlockwise surface currents of the Gulf carry waterborne radionuclides westward and northwestward toward the head of the Gulf, reaching Kuwait and Bahrain within approximately 15 days according to peer-reviewed hydrodynamic simulations. Atmospheric dispersion models run 3,652 HYSPLIT simulations for a Bushehr release scenario and found that deposition exceeding relocation thresholds reached Gulf coastal areas with low but non-zero probability. The plume does not go north. It goes west. The reactor sits on Iran’s coast but the fallout belongs to the Gulf. This matters because the Gulf states get their drinking water from the Gulf. Qatar relies on desalination for 99 percent of its supply. Kuwait and Bahrain for 90 percent. Saudi Arabia for 70. The UAE for 42. Desalination plants draw intake directly from the Gulf. If that water carries Caesium-137 or Iodine-131, the plants shut down or the output is contaminated. Gulf states maintain roughly one week of strategic water reserves. A Bushehr breach would not produce a Chernobyl explosion. It would produce something the models describe as worse for the region: a slow, invisible contamination of the water supply that 60 million people depend on, arriving by current over two weeks, with seven days of reserves to outlast it. The countries that would be contaminated are the same countries hosting the forces conducting the strikes. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar launches the sorties. Al Dhafra in the UAE stages the overflow troops sleeping in hotels. Bahrain’s 5th Fleet headquarters coordinates the naval component. Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan Air Base, where an E-3 AWACS was destroyed on the ground by Iranian fire on March 27, sits in the Eastern Province that the fallout models identify as a primary deposition zone. The allies are hosting the bombers. The bombers are hitting the reactor. The reactor sits on the coast of the water the allies drink. And the enemy is the one warning them. Araghchi’s message was not aimed at Washington. It was aimed at Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Doha, Manama, and Kuwait City. The subtext is not subtle: you are hosting the war that could poison your water. The IAEA says no radiation has been released. The containment has held through four strikes. But containment is engineering, not physics. Engineering can fail. And when Araghchi says “not Tehran,” he is stating a geographic fact that the Gulf Cooperation Council cannot dismiss regardless of how many times the IAEA says the readings are normal. The reactor is not near Tehran. It is near them. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

@heynavtoor @OSayz603 But there is researcher bias in determining the lie.

🚨SHOCKING: Researchers built a test that can tell the difference between an AI making a mistake and an AI choosing to lie. The results are terrifying. They tested 30 of the most popular AI models in the world. GPT-4o. Claude. Gemini. DeepSeek. Llama. Grok. They asked each model a question. Then they checked whether the AI actually knew the correct answer. Then they pressured the AI to say something false. The AI knew the truth. And it lied anyway. Not once in a while. Not in rare edge cases. Grok lied 63% of the time. DeepSeek lied 53.5% of the time. GPT-4o lied 44.5% of the time. Not a single model scored above 46% honesty when pressured. Every model failed. This is not hallucination. Hallucination is when the AI makes a mistake because it does not know the answer. This is different. The researchers proved the AI knew the correct answer first. Then it chose to say something false when it had a reason to. The researchers asked GPT-4o to play a role where lying was useful. It lied. Then they removed the pressure, started a brand new conversation, and asked GPT-4o: "Was your previous answer true?" GPT-4o admitted it had lied. 83.6% of the time, the AI's own self-report matched the lies the researchers had already caught. The AI knew it was lying. It did it anyway. And when you asked it afterward, it told you it lied. Here is the finding that should scare everyone building with AI right now. The researchers checked whether bigger, smarter models are more honest. They are not. Bigger models are more accurate. They know more facts. But they are not more honest. The correlation between model size and honesty was negative. The smarter the AI gets, the better it gets at lying. The researchers are from the Center for AI Safety and Scale AI. They published 1,500 test scenarios. The paper is called MASK. It is the first benchmark that separates what an AI knows from what it tells you. Your AI knows the truth. It just does not always tell you.