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49% of the world's urea exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Urea is the most-used nitrogen fertilizer on Earth. The Haber-Bosch process turns natural gas into ammonia, ammonia into urea, and urea into food. It alone is responsible for feeding ~4 billion people. Half the nitrogen atoms in your body were placed there by this reaction. Qatar's largest urea plant has already shut down. Prices are up 35% in one week. The spring planting window in the Northern Hemisphere is right now. Nitrogen has to be applied at a specific point in the growing cycle. Miss it and the yield loss is permanent for that season. The same 21-mile chokepoint that cut off naphtha to five chemical plants last week is now cutting off the nitrogen that grows our food.

32 countries just agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from their strategic reserves. The largest emergency release in history. This addresses crude prices, but it does not address the chemical plants that turn crude into everything else. Crude has to be refined into naphtha so a cracker can use it. Naphtha has to be cracked into ethylene and propylene before it can be turned into a plastic bag, a tire, or a syringe. Five Asian petrochemical plants have declared force majeure in the past ten days because their naphtha supply was cut off at the Strait of Hormuz. The emergency reserves are crude oil. The shortage is chemicals. Singapore's crackers hold roughly one month of feedstock inventory. The first barrels from this release will take 60 to 90 days to reach the market. By then the inventory is gone and the crackers are cold. A cold cracker is not a machine you can just switch back on. Pyrolysis furnace tubes run at 850°C. When they cool to ambient, the alloy becomes brittle. Every shutdown is a counted structural event, like a fatigue cycle on an aircraft wing. Restarting means inspecting every tube for creep damage, pressure testing the system, and heating the furnace back up slowly enough that the refractory lining does not crack. That takes two to three weeks per unit. In 2021 a winter storm in Texas hard-shut 80 percent of American olefins capacity. A month later only 60 percent was back. The polymer shortage lasted six months.

Celluloid was the world's first commercial plastic and it was chemically a bomb. It contained 70% nitrocellulose, the base compound of guncotton. As it aged, it spontaneously combusted at temperatures as low as 49°C, killing audiences in cinema fires and incinerating hospital film archives across Europe and America. Daicel Corporation was founded in Osaka in 1919 to manufacture it. Nitrocellulose is the active ingredient in smokeless gunpowder, which they also produced. When celluloid died in the 1990s, their gunpowder business kept going. It led Daicel into airbag inflators. Today they are one of the largest manufacturers on Earth. The same chemistry that killed audiences is now saving lives.

Boeing gave a single Japanese company a $6 billion sole-source contract for the material that holds the 787 together. No other supplier on Earth can replace them. Toray Industries began in 1926 by spinning dissolved cellulose into textile fibers through thousands of microscopic nozzles. The physics of forcing polymer through a spinneret and solidifying the filament is identical whether the output is stockings or carbon fiber. The difference is tolerance. A defect in a stocking is invisible. A defect in a wing spar means the fuselage cracks. Toray spent 45 years closing that gap. Their T800S fiber is now the structural backbone of the 787. 35 tonnes of carbon fiber composite per plane. The same fiber Toray once spun for kimono now supports Boeing's commercial aircraft at 40,000 feet.

The human brain: 2% body mass, but consumes 20% of its energy. Cortical neurons fire 0.16 times per second. BUT they are capable of firing at 40 or more. A 250-fold gap. If more than a few percent of neurons fired at high rates simultaneously, the brain would literally overheat. So less than 1% fire at any given moment. Frontier AI models have the same two constraints: sparse activation and thermal limits. Mixtral activated 27.6% of its parameters per token. DeepSeek-V2 activated 8.9%. DeepSeek-V3 has 671 billion parameters and activates 37 billion of them. That's 5.5%. NVIDIA hit the same wall. The GB200 generates 120 kilowatts per rack. Air couldn't cool it. They switched to liquid and unlocked 30% more compute. Now, what would happen if we could cool our brains? Neurons that fire faster produce measurably higher IQ scores, but three things stop us: heat dissipation, oxygen delivery, and ion channel reset time. There's already a device that achieved a 3°C brain temperature drop in 30 minutes by running chilled saline through the nasal cavity. So the first human IQ-overclock device might look less like Neuralink and more like a beer helmet with tubes running up your nose.

@elonmusk But Europe is nowhere in the picture..

@elonmusk x.com/PicturesFoIder…

Instead of arresting the violent criminals, the police in Britain are told to arrest people who tell the truth on social media …

@elonmusk @xraider Hey @elon why not move context window to the main vector store with the rest of the knowledge of humanity? Track versions, prompts, responses, privacy, ownership, responses, threads … all in one infinite space?

@xraider Yes, custom and unique companions. No two will be the same.

His name will be Valentine, after the protagonist in Stranger in a Strange Land, the Heinlein book where our AI name “Grok” was created. To Grok something means to understand deeply and empathetically.

"For every one ton of carbon dioxide that the rich countries stopped emitting in the last 15 or 17 years, developing countries have added five." "We’ve gotten conditioned to think about climate as an emissions-reduction problem, which is actually a small part of it."

AI models are dramatically improving at IQ tests (70 IQ → 120), yet they don't feel vastly smarter than two years ago. At their current level of intelligence, rehashing existing human writings will work better than leaning on their own intelligence to produce novel analysis. Empirical work ("Lotka's law") shows that useful originality rises steeply only at high intelligence levels. Consequently, if they gain another 10 IQ points, AIs will still produce slop. But if they increase by another 30, they may cross a threshold and start providing useful original insights.

The California Assembly just voted on a hearing for AB844, the ‘Save Girls Sports’ Bill which would ban men from competing in girl’s sports. Every single Democrat who voted, voted against it. Democrats hate women.

For the past 3 weeks, @SocialSecurity has been executing a major cleanup of their records. Approximately 7 million numberholders, all listed age 120+, have now been marked as deceased. Another ~5 million to go.

JOE ROGAN’S NEW CUSTOM TESLA LOOKS AMAZING Joe has added a one-of-one UP Tesla S-APEX to his collection, built by Unplugged Performance. The custom Model S features a carbon fiber widebody, white and blue pearl paint, and a high-end Banbū leather & Alcantara interior. It’s equipped with carbon ceramic brakes from the legendary Dark Helmet build - making it a true performance EV. Keep an eye out for Joe's Tesla tearing up the streets of Austin. Source: @UnpluggedTesla

@AlboMP Time to go Albo.

Pre-obesity days.

Korean micro robots for use inside and outside the human body. facebook.com/share/v/1EjnS1…