Itamar Drechsler

426 posts

Itamar Drechsler

Itamar Drechsler

@idrechs

Professor of Finance, I study financial intermediation, asset pricing, monetary policy. I like to cycle, weightlift, run.

Katılım Temmuz 2021
50 Takip Edilen1K Takipçiler
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Jamie Bonkiewicz
Jamie Bonkiewicz@JamieBonkiewicz·
So basically now Iran has 24 hours to surrender or they’ll have 14 days to surrender.
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Brandon Beylo
Brandon Beylo@marketplunger1·
lol who did this.
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NBER
NBER@nberpubs·
Tracing 1970s stagflation to credit crunches from Regulation Q deposit caps. Fed tightening drove deposit outflows, raising firms' costs pushing prices up and output down, from @idrechs, @AlexiSavov, and @schnabl_econ nber.org/papers/w35057
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Josh Kale
Josh Kale@JoshKale·
This Allbirds story is so insane: → $BIRD IPO'd in 2021 at a $4 billion valuation → Silicon Valley's favorite shoe → Lost 99.5% of its value in 4 years → Closed every US store → Sold the entire brand for $39 million → Renamed itself "NewBird AI" → Using $50M to buy GPUs and compete with AWS → Stock up 450% today on 875x normal volume This is the most unhinged corporate pivot of the decade and the newest meme stock entrant
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Tracy Alloway@tracyalloway

Allbirds, the shoe brand, now says it's an AI compute company.

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Greg Ip
Greg Ip@greg_ip·
That 40% job cut at Block? “The vast majority ... were probably not due to AI,” said Dan Dolev of Mizuho Americas. “This isn’t an AI story. It’s a workforce correction wearing an AI costume,” wrote Jason Karsh, a former Block employee, on X. via Angel Au-Yeung wsj.com/business/jack-…
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The_Real_Fly
The_Real_Fly@The_Real_Fly·
$XYZ's headcount will revert back to pre-COVID levels at 6,000 employees. Here is Jack's stupidity in headcount over the years. 2019: 3,835 2020: 5,477 2021: 8,521 2022: 12,428 2023: 12,985 2024: 11,372 2025: 10-12,000 He's using AI as a excuse to mask his failure
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Ben Carlson
Ben Carlson@awealthofcs·
Maybe Block laying off a ton of employees is a sign that AI is gonna destroy everything Or maybe the stock is down 80% from the highs and they overhired and AI is a convenient excuse
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MHendi
MHendi@MHendi35·
@idrechs @TheStalwart They renamed the company because they thought crypto was the future of their business, I’m sure that is working out great.
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Matt Darling 🌐🏗️
Matt Darling 🌐🏗️@besttrousers·
One of the reasons I think *announced* layoffs and *actual* layoff data have diverged recently is "AI is a convenient (and maybe compelling) excuse for layoffs that are not driven by AI.".
Itamar Drechsler@idrechs

@TheStalwart Dorsey claims "we're not making this decision because we're in trouble. our business is strong. gross profit continues to grow, .... and profitability is improving." Their growth had slowed down a lot, and market soured on them. I'm guessing that, more than AI, drove this.

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saltynostrils
saltynostrils@saltynostrils·
@idrechs @TheStalwart British Telecom offered the same message about AI efficiency when they laid off half the company in 2023. COGS dropped a bit, but sales and operating income is about flat. Its just signals no growth.
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Joe Weisenthal
Joe Weisenthal@TheStalwart·
Shares of Block are surging after announcing gigantic layoffs, cutting 40% of its staff
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Itamar Drechsler
Itamar Drechsler@idrechs·
@matthew_pines this is bs. payments and bnpl firms are down hugely over the past 6 months and 75% since their peak. That's why he's slashing headcount. The AI was the cover.
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Matthew Pines
Matthew Pines@matthew_pines·
If this generalizes (a CEO making the decision to rip the AGI band-aid and cut 40% of the workforce overnight rather than have the org endure extended RIFs), then we could see a highly non-linear cliff in employment this year. Once a second CEO does it, it could cascade. Woosh.
jack@jack

we're making @blocks smaller today. here's my note to the company. #### today we're making one of the hardest decisions in the history of our company: we're reducing our organization by nearly half, from over 10,000 people to just under 6,000. that means over 4,000 of you are being asked to leave or entering into consultation. i'll be straight about what's happening, why, and what it means for everyone. first off, if you're one of the people affected, you'll receive your salary for 20 weeks + 1 week per year of tenure, equity vested through the end of may, 6 months of health care, your corporate devices, and $5,000 to put toward whatever you need to help you in this transition (if you’re outside the U.S. you’ll receive similar support but exact details are going to vary based on local requirements). i want you to know that before anything else. everyone will be notified today, whether you're being asked to leave, entering consultation, or asked to stay. we're not making this decision because we're in trouble. our business is strong. gross profit continues to grow, we continue to serve more and more customers, and profitability is improving. but something has changed. we're already seeing that the intelligence tools we’re creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter teams, are enabling a new way of working which fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company. and that's accelerating rapidly. i had two options: cut gradually over months or years as this shift plays out, or be honest about where we are and act on it now. i chose the latter. repeated rounds of cuts are destructive to morale, to focus, and to the trust that customers and shareholders place in our ability to lead. i'd rather take a hard, clear action now and build from a position we believe in than manage a slow reduction of people toward the same outcome. a smaller company also gives us the space to grow our business the right way, on our own terms, instead of constantly reacting to market pressures. a decision at this scale carries risk. but so does standing still. we've done a full review to determine the roles and people we require to reliably grow the business from here, and we've pressure-tested those decisions from multiple angles. i accept that we may have gotten some of them wrong, and we've built in flexibility to account for that, and do the right thing for our customers. we're not going to just disappear people from slack and email and pretend they were never here. communication channels will stay open through thursday evening (pacific) so everyone can say goodbye properly, and share whatever you wish. i'll also be hosting a live video session to thank everyone at 3:35pm pacific. i know doing it this way might feel awkward. i'd rather it feel awkward and human than efficient and cold. to those of you leaving…i’m grateful for you, and i’m sorry to put you through this. you built what this company is today. that's a fact that i'll honor forever. this decision is not a reflection of what you contributed. you will be a great contributor to any organization going forward. to those staying…i made this decision, and i'll own it. what i'm asking of you is to build with me. we're going to build this company with intelligence at the core of everything we do. how we work, how we create, how we serve our customers. our customers will feel this shift too, and we're going to help them navigate it: towards a future where they can build their own features directly, composed of our capabilities and served through our interfaces. that's what i'm focused on now. expect a note from me tomorrow. jack

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Itamar Drechsler
Itamar Drechsler@idrechs·
@TheStalwart Which other of the payments or BNPL firms that are down a lot will claim AI as reason for layoffs?
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Itamar Drechsler
Itamar Drechsler@idrechs·
@TheStalwart Dorsey claims "we're not making this decision because we're in trouble. our business is strong. gross profit continues to grow, .... and profitability is improving." Their growth had slowed down a lot, and market soured on them. I'm guessing that, more than AI, drove this.
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Itamar Drechsler
Itamar Drechsler@idrechs·
@tracyalloway @TheStalwart Since someone asked: here's the average credit card rate on cards assessed interest according to the G.19 release vs. the Fed funds rate.
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