Richard Brooks

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Richard Brooks

Richard Brooks

@imRichardBrooks

Risk, resilience and innovation in emerging technologies.

Oxford Katılım Kasım 2011
621 Takip Edilen250 Takipçiler
Richard Brooks
Richard Brooks@imRichardBrooks·
@BRyvkin This is as old as Rousseau surely? And undergirded a lot of dangerous assumptions for the French Revolution, Communist Revolution and Year Zero.
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Richard Brooks
Richard Brooks@imRichardBrooks·
@Karavali_Guy @policytensor @ImperiumHindu Yes, it feels to me like being led by events. No-one saw Russia as a peer power, until it attacked Syria/Ukraine, no-one saw Iran as a major power until it close the Straits. If N. Korea suddenly attacks S. Korea, does it become a major power?
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Karavali Guy
Karavali Guy@Karavali_Guy·
@policytensor @ImperiumHindu Will Iran still be a major power without control of Horumuz ? Will Iran have the same leverage in 10 years time, when countries will diversify away from Hormuz..?
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Policy Tensor
Policy Tensor@policytensor·
Nonsense. Europe is not a power. It is a playing field of the other powers. There are now four great powers. Russia, Iran, China, and the US. Think back to my conversation with Gopal.
Biju Damodaran@BijuSDamodaran

India is not in the same category as Russia or Europe. Russia is a military power while Europe still retains a lot of industrial technology and capacity. India is neither a military power nor an industrial power. In the future, maybe. But not now. @policytensor @dbessner

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Richard Brooks
Richard Brooks@imRichardBrooks·
@policytensor How? Russia is straining every sinew to take Ukraine and Europe is subsidising its defence with around 2% defence spending. EU intervention has dramatically changed its neighbourhood since 1991, whereas US interventions have been pretty terrible.
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Richard Brooks
Richard Brooks@imRichardBrooks·
@epkaufm Ever thus? As Benard Shaw said: "If at age 20 you are not a Communist then you have no heart. If at age 30 you are not a Capitalist then you have no brains."
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Eric Kaufmann
Eric Kaufmann@epkaufm·
Mind virus grips elite UK students
Thea Sewell@theasewell05

This is a poll on Cambridge student voter intention, ran by the head of the Cam Uni Labour Club. I cannot overstate how much this worries me. Cambridge students are painfully out of touch with national feeling. Green is leading by a total landslide: the party that has single-handedly the worst policies on trans and immigration imaginable. When I was cancelled (for owning 3 gender-critical books!), I was astounded at the number of people who said things along the lines of: “Why are you choosing to die on this hill when the majority of people disagree with you!?” and, even more annoyingly, “Look at all the intelligent people around you who disagree! “. It is very rare for an academic here to speak their mind of this subject, so many students automatically assume their beliefs. This isn’t helped by the pride progress flag adorned on every hall. Or the ‘gender expression’ funds, offered by many a JCR, providing money for Stand to Pee devices, breast forms and binders. It is propaganda. They have no idea that the vast majority of the British public do indeed know what a woman is. But I don’t blame them! School taught my cohort gender ideology as fact- a few boys in my class were chastised for saying they didn’t buy it. And public institutions keep up the falsehood - have you been to an NHS waiting room in the last ten years? It is no wonder. But a huge worry. Very soon these students will graduate. they will take up positions in law, in science; as teachers, politicians etc. Some will change their minds on things, i’m sure. But it is naive to assume this is the typical leftist fad young people go through, and even more naive to think we won’t feel the lash.

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Richard Brooks
Richard Brooks@imRichardBrooks·
@TrentTelenko Such a deeply silly question. Russia is Europe's domestic energy supply. Could the US swap out its own energy production overnight for someone else ... come on, be serious. As it is, Europe has dropped Russia oil consumption by 80%, that is an INCREDIBLE achievement.
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Richard Brooks
Richard Brooks@imRichardBrooks·
@sanchezcastejon Spain is not the EU, and still less not Europe. That much is obvious. A cautious relationship will predominate whilst Germany worries about its manufacturing, if nothing else.
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Pedro Sánchez
Pedro Sánchez@sanchezcastejon·
Hoy, con el presidente Xi Jinping he constatado que el vínculo entre España y China sale reforzado tras este viaje oficial. En un mundo cada vez más incierto, España apuesta por una relación UE-China basada en la confianza, el diálogo y la estabilidad. Debemos seguir avanzando hacia un orden multipolar construido desde el respeto y el pragmatismo.
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Richard Brooks
Richard Brooks@imRichardBrooks·
@EVKontorovich @ratlpolicy Of course you can. Talk to us Brits. Leaving is no problem at all. Leaving with a good deal - now you're going alone against the global powers - is a different story, but that's your choice. Tbh if Orban's Hungary ever asked to leave, the EU would have been thrilled.
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Richard Brooks
Richard Brooks@imRichardBrooks·
@ratlpolicy More importantly. Orban is only liked by America's crazy right-wing bcs he talks big about anti- (non-white) immigration and using state power to suppress liberal sentiment. In all other ways, he's corrupt, self-serving and 100% compromised by Russia.
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Richard Brooks
Richard Brooks@imRichardBrooks·
@ratlpolicy Exactly. Orban loved the EU. They gave him money, he had outsized influence and he had zero intention of leaving. Indeed, Hungarians like all EU countries have solid majorities in favour of the EU - 79% in Hungary despite the propaganda.
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Richard Brooks
Richard Brooks@imRichardBrooks·
@AndyM1928 @BRyvkin Absolutely, the War of Independence is very much a continuation of the same issues that mobilised the English Civil War.
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Andy Malone
Andy Malone@AndyM1928·
@BRyvkin You've gotta start with the English Civil War and our system and entirely allergic to teaching "English History".
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Boris Ryvkin
Boris Ryvkin@BRyvkin·
The knowledge gap in the U.S. when it comes to pre-independence American history stretching from 1607 to 1775 is pretty extraordinary. It’s treated more or less like a black hole with the occasional mention of Jamestown, the Mayflower, the Salem Witch Trials, and maybe a passing reference to the French and Indian War (almost always tying it to the American Revolution). 168 years of American history which is almost entirely absent from our popular culture outside of professional historians and enthusiasts. I’ve always been troubled by that. This period is worth rediscovering.
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Richard Brooks
Richard Brooks@imRichardBrooks·
@admcollingwood What's you view on whether the JCPOA would have worked. To me, it seemed incomplete, but the foundation for a broader rapprochement. I don't think Iran would have changed it's Israel or proxy policy, but it might have made it more performative and risk adverse.
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Collingwood 🇬🇧
Collingwood 🇬🇧@admcollingwood·
The key mistake was not the recent US blunder in attempting regime change by air in Iran. It was the failure to draw Iran into the international system as a full player. In broad terms, this failure was caused by Tehran's position on the seemingly unsolvable Palestine Question butting against Washington's apparently unimpeachable and unmitigated support for Israel's position on the matter. In form, this centred on Iran's support for anti-Israel proxy forces, such as Hezbollah, and Iran's apparent pursuit of nuclear weapons (itself, it seems fair to say, a result of the American invasion of Iraq in 2003). In concrete terms, it involved an effort to diplomatically and economically isolate Iran, and the Iranian response to this. Ultimately, it appears that this failure to draw in Iran has resulted in a total victory for Iran and its emergence as a Great Power, per @policytensor, @ProfessorPape et al. Wizzbang ideas to putt the toothpaste of Iranian control over 20% of the world's oil flow back into the tube are simply too late.
Niall Ferguson@nfergus

There is no going back to the status quo ante. There will need to be a new international agreement to manage the Strait of Hormuz. Here's the plan proposed yesterday by me, @RichardHaass, and Philip Zelikow.

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Richard Brooks
Richard Brooks@imRichardBrooks·
@odp1964 @ulrichspeck France is a serious military power, no doubt with great domestic capabilities but it's not been as seriously committed to defend Ukraine as it could be.
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Ulrich Speck
Ulrich Speck@ulrichspeck·
If NATO falls apart (unlikely), its successor might be BSTO (Baltic Sea Treaty Organization). Just like NATO is organized around the Atlantic, BSTO would be organized around the Baltic Sea: Poland, Baltics, Nordics, UK, Netherlands, Germany. Only goal: to defend against Russia.
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Richard Brooks
Richard Brooks@imRichardBrooks·
@Martels_Hammer @ulrichspeck Betrayal? We in the UK sent 290,000 troops over 20 years to support you, taking 600 casualties (we got nothing for the Falklands). 3 years later you completely forget it because you expect people to charge to your side the moment you do something stupid.
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MartelsHammer
MartelsHammer@Martels_Hammer·
Unlikely? Dude we hate you now with a white hot passion. There is strong sentiment in the US to turn our forces from Iran to Europe. We should team up with Russia and just plunder you for ever you have. Let’s call it services rendered. Betrayal is going to cost you everything.
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Erik Westre
Erik Westre@ErikWestre·
@ulrichspeck Hell no. There’s no reason for a defense against Russia. They’re no threat, as long as Europe doesn’t force them to be a threat. Ukraine is a good example. It was never an attack on Europe, but to stop American expansionism eastwards, through NATO. Russia is not an enemy.
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Richard Brooks
Richard Brooks@imRichardBrooks·
@kosh_1 @admcollingwood Nope, nonsense. The US has some leverage over Israel given how much of its weapons come from the US, but very very little over Europe or Ukraine. Ukraine practically receives nothing from the US. Europe has stopped listening to it.
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kosh_
kosh_@kosh_1·
@admcollingwood "But the US, for whatever reason, is unable to force the issue, meaning Ukraine, Europe, and in this case, Israel, maintain agency." Ukraine, European & Israeli 'agency' are licenced by the US, not 'for whatever reason' but to 'step-up' their aggression while the US negotiates.
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Collingwood 🇬🇧
Collingwood 🇬🇧@admcollingwood·
I cannot help but draw analogies between what is happening here, between Iran and the US, and in Ukraine, between Russia and the US. Moscow and Tehran seem to assume that the US can dictate to Europe and Ukraine or Israel, respectively, because they know that without US support (especially ISR and C2), Israel and Ukraine would be snookered, and likely unable to remain in the fight. But the US, for whatever reason, is unable to force the issue, meaning Ukraine, Europe, and in this case, Israel, maintain agency. Whatever one thinks about Trump's behaviour regarding US allies, he seems unwilling to finally put his foot down and back it up with a credible in the same way Eisenhower did with Britain and France in 1956. Multipolarity indeed.
Collingwood 🇬🇧@admcollingwood

The main mediator, Pakistan, thought it did. The other two, Egypt and Turkey, also thought it did. Iran thought it did. Somehow, they all got completely the wrong impression. This shows just how difficult it will be to get anything across the line. The US will try to ring-fence Israel from having to take the strategic hit from this, but can they? Iran will attempt, from here, to isolate Israel themselves, lumping all the blame for the failure of the ceasefire on Tel-Aviv. They will hope that the global court of diplomatic opinion takes their side as the oil continues not to flow so that Israel is able to continue clobbering Lebanon (I make no judgement on whether Israel is justified in doing so: I simply say that this is what's going to happen.)

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Richard Brooks
Richard Brooks@imRichardBrooks·
@admcollingwood That vast majority of Ukrainian support comes from Europe. US only provides intelligence support. The US have limited leverage over Europe and Ukraine will fight on regardless - besides not giving even intelligence support wld play badly with Republics and a sympathetic country.
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Richard Brooks
Richard Brooks@imRichardBrooks·
@DavidVidecette So, what is the actual issue? What's gone wrong. I hear no end of declinist posts on X that neither mention the actual issue, not the proposed solution.
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David Videcette
David Videcette@DavidVidecette·
Honestly, I’ve seen my country in bad times, and lived through them. But I have never experienced decline, surrender and stupidity presided over by a government of the United Kingdom on the scale we currently see. It’s truly unprecedented in my lifetime
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