mtx

you need to spend two years to really know. i was like you until i spent years there. particularly on point 3, where the Chinese prefer to debate in one on one or small group settings, vehemently, than in public. Get to know some of the 985 211 kids. I guarantee you will be blown away

just spent 2 weeks in china. went into it thinking we're cooked. came back more bullish on america than ever. here's why: 1. chinese citizens are way more chronically online. on the subway, train, anywhere, literally everyone is glued to their phone. gaming, short form, wechat. "don't walk and look at your phone, it's dangerous!" announcements flood crowded areas. their tiktok isn't any better, its still garbage, soft-core porn, etc. 2. everyone's using AI — deepseek, kimi, doubao. but nobody's afraid of losing their job to it. here it feels like there's an existential crisis every week. in china, nothing. i think the CCP won't let companies mass-layoff workers. great for short-term stability. terrible for long-term competitiveness on a global scale. 3. china doesn't produce weirdos. i sat in on a class at tsinghua (china's MIT). not one student spoke unless the professor read their name out loud. no questions. no debate. chinese education produces world-class executors, not contrarians. it does make it a safer place to live though. 4. china doesn't have christianity but it has something america doesn't have: a shared story everyone believes in. every person age 25-70 watched their country go from abject poverty to skyscrapers in one lifetime. that kind of collective proof has a deep unifying effect. compare that to how divided we are right now. america has a huge meaning vacuum that needs to be filled. nevertheless, i return back to my home in america reinvigorated. because everything i saw confirms one thing: china optimizes. america innovates. and the innovators always win.

@The_AI_Investor except last year at $100 the market would not be forecasting $60 / $100 EPS for FY26 / FY27

A year ago $MU was trading at ~$100 a share. This year EPS is about $58 (FY 2026), next year EPS is about $98 (estimate). Based on 'worst time to buy memory stock is when forward PE is low', at this time last year forward PE of the stock was less than 2 (based on current year estimate). Yes worst time to buy was last year, forward PE was so low, then what happened ? Such a dump rule.

@ShanuMathew93 TG + Vercel + Neon DB is gold

Finally got my OpenClaw to work and the periodic texts on meaningful headlines from sources I care about are useful. Using Deepseek as the model which has good value relative to cost. Sandboxed to a VPS so it’s 24/7. Tried to build in Claude Code / Codex but need persistent Cowork or CLI to have it run off hooks periodically so need to set up a separate VPS or keep a computer on 24/7. Could set up nicely formatted and better sourced / validated headlines in an html format delivered over Telegram. Pumped to keep experimenting. Anyone got good tips or resources for what they found works well? Not in the camp of people spending hundreds to thousands of dollars per day

@boazbaraktcs like it or not, that’s gary’s biz model

In a world that is ever changing, it’s good we can rely on some things to stay the same.

@PawelDSM you have the choice to watch Chinese movies with this vibe 💀

To był ostatni film jaki widziałem, w którym młody chłopiec nauczył się czegoś od mężczyzny. W którym kobieta musiała stać się silną postacią, a swoich mocy nie uzyskała za fakt bycia kobietą. W którym "dobro" musi ZABIĆ zło, zamiast je rozumieć i wykazać się empatią. W którym bohater nie odpuścił ani na chwilę, cel był jasny, a koszt nie grał roli. W którym przemoc jest związana nierozerwalnie z instynktem przetrwania. Nie ma już takiego kina, które inspiruje, skłania do refleksji, daje wzorce i kształtuje mężczyzn. Jest tylko nijakość, ideologiczna breja i spłycanie wszystkiego.

@wydanshu @ArthurMacwaters just not comparable when life expectancy was less than half of today’s average

@ArthurMacwaters We have better technology and medicine, but do modern levels of stress, isolation, and mental health crises mean we are actually happier than people in the past?

population has grown ~9x in 200yrs, while poverty trends to 0 people act as though capitalism is a zero sum game, but it’s actually the only system that creates positive sum outcomes the average person today is far richer than most kings in days past

@RichardWedekin1 how about valuation including sbc?

"SaaSpocalypse" I think this analysis makes it pretty clear! 1. $ADBE is the clear winner! The stock is absolutely mispriced! 2. $FICO is the most expensive stock, but we see why! We talk about an exceptional business. PEG < 1 3. $NOW is still more expensive than the others, but they are a beneficiary of agentic AI. Margins and ROIC will probably increase in the future 4. $WDAY, $HUBS and $TEAM are cheap! But they cheat through SBC! If you subtract these, the stocks are significantly more expensive, even after Drawdowns of 63% to 87% Mediocre businesses - They are out! Note: Calculations by @fiscal_ai Visualisation by draw.io

@a16z what’s the Y axis for the left chart?

Inference (not training) is projected to drive data center buildout. More charts: a16z.news/p/charts-of-th…

@aakashgupta at least check your AI written work that Phoenix and SF are not in the same state...

California has the best weather on the planet and the science behind it is absurd. The cold California Current runs south from Alaska at 50°F. When warm air crosses it, moisture becomes fog instead of rain. San Francisco's average July high is 67°F. Phoenix, same latitude, hits 106°F. A 39-degree gap between two cities in the same state. That's the cold current doing all the work. The Pacific High, a semi-permanent pressure system, blocks storms from reaching the coast six to eight months straight. LA regularly goes 200+ consecutive days without a single drop of rain. Most places at this latitude get summer thunderstorms. California gets zero. Then the Sierra Nevada blocks every arctic air mass that freezes the rest of the continent. When a polar vortex drops Chicago to -20°F, LA sits at 65°F. Three systems running simultaneously: cold current for cooling, high pressure for drought, mountains for insulation. There are exactly five places on Earth where all three converge. California is one. The others are coastal Chile, the Western Cape of South Africa, southwestern Australia, and the actual Mediterranean. That's the entire list. Jensen Huang just told everyone to move to California and eat the highest taxes in the world because "the weather is great." He watched Larry Page, Sergey Brin, Thiel, and Zuckerberg flee the state to dodge an $8 billion tax bill. His response: "I haven't thought about it even once." He's not being glib. He's being geological.

@saxena_puru Agreed. But how will SaaS avoid budget squeeze and margin hit from AI adoption?

Claude Cowork and software vendors The latest agentic AI tools like Claude Cowork are powerful desktop assistants that can handle multi-step knowledge work i.e. researching, synthesising data, creating documents, managing files and running workflows autonomously on your machine. But here's the key reality most investors seem to be missing during the ongoing panic: these agents cannot operate effectively in isolation at enterprise scale. For real business use (especially in regulated environments with sensitive, large-scale data), they need deep integration with existing systems of record and governed platforms. Standalone agents on a laptop lack the secure data access, compliance controls, audit trails, permissions and team-scale reliability that enterprises demand. That's why the smart move from AI labs has been to build plugins, connectors and enterprise features that embed these agents into current software workflows rather than replacing them. The result? AI becomes a productivity layer that makes established data, observability, backup and integration platforms even more valuable and sticky. The initial stock sell-off in software names was classic fear-driven overreaction. In practice, widespread agent adoption is likely to increase demand for clean, governed enterprise infrastructure - not destroy it. Had an interesting discussion with a good friend who used to work alongside ex-CEO - Andy Grove at Intel and is currently responsible for building out AI systems within a rapidly growing global scale-up company. He is very knowledgeable and regularly invited as an expert speaker at Jefferies' conferences to talk about AI and software. Earlier today he told me that agents need the underlying enterprise-grade software platforms to truly shine. This isn't disruption through replacement; it's augmentation that strengthens the moat of serious enterprise software vendors which are integrating AI into their platforms. Long-term, the winners will be those building the intelligent layer on top of robust data foundations. alphatarget.com

@pronounced_kyle don’t you think this is in large part due to USD being the global reserve currency that affords us the waste without consequences?

@aakashgupta Anthropic having a rocky relationship with NVDA didn’t help

The real story here is why Anthropic agreed to train on a chip that's objectively slower than Nvidia's best. Trainium2 loses to GB200 on raw TFLOPS. Sounds disqualifying until you understand what matters for training modern reasoning models: memory bandwidth per dollar. Reinforcement learning is memory-bound, not compute-bound. Amazon wins that comparison. Anthropic's engineers didn't just accept the chip. They co-designed it. Wrote low-level kernels interfacing directly with the silicon. Helped shape the Neuron software stack. In exchange, Amazon built 1.3 gigawatts of dedicated capacity and committed $8 billion. Then Anthropic went to Google and got 1 million TPUs. Then kept running Nvidia GPUs too. Three chip ecosystems. Three hyperscalers competing for the same workloads. Each one spending billions to be one of three training partners. Anthropic's run-rate revenue just crossed $30 billion, up from $9 billion six months ago. Over 1,000 enterprise customers spending $1M+ annually. The company that chose the "slower" chip is now the fastest-growing AI lab on the planet. Garman wants this to be a Trainium victory lap. It is one. But the deeper read is that Anthropic turned three competing silicon roadmaps into leverage against each other, and each hyperscaler is spending billions for the privilege of being one of three options.

@odysseus0z you know China well (Fujian part) 🤣

OH: some dude in Fujian (scam capital of China) uses hacked credit cards to subscribe to Claude Code Max, resell them as API at 20% cost, and then sell user traces to Chinese labs for distillation. Bruh.

@elonmusk that must be cash incineration!

SpaceXAI Colossus 2 now has 7 models in training: - Imagine V2 - 2 variants of 1T - 2 variants of 1.5T - 6T - 10T Some catching up to do.

@Camp4 so true

Take it from me, a recent empty nester: The Good Old Days don’t feel like it at the time. It feels more like hard work and struggle. The days are long but the years fly by. Then, one day you wake up and the house is quiet. One of my most cherished memories is coming home from work each day and opening the creaky back door to our 1947 craftsman home. My 3-year-old daughter (now 21) would drop her toys and run down the hall—her footsteps booming on the old wood floor—to greet me. I love my life and don’t want to go back, but I do wish I could pass one message across time to 35-year-old me: You’re living the Good Old Days right now. Savor every moment.

@ShaykhSulaiman @psuvafan007 the backgrounds of the two videos are literally different. they cannot be 7 mins apart. stop the nonsense

TWO STATEMENTS BY TRUMP 7 MINUTES APART: Trump at 9:00: "Regime change was not our goal. We don't want that" Trump at 9:07: "Regime change is what we want. It is needed" These statements were made 7 minutes apart in the same speech

@zerohedge in the past, net profit = FCF but now net profit > FCF. perhaps that’s what the market is sniffing out. on top of that, HALO takes over

Remarkable disconnect: EPS projections soaring (mostly on Mag7 hopes) while S&P is dumping (multiples collapsing). One twitch in Mag 7 capex/revenue and the last pillar cracks

@paulg i had a buddy who works at a biotech company. one day he brought in a durian for lunch and the smell made his colleagues call in the fire fighters thinking there was a chemical leak. true story…

Tried a ripe durian today. I have such a bad sense of smell that it didn't bother me at all. The rest of the family was revolted though. None of them would try it, but Jessica let me kiss her afterward. She said it was "like kissing a rubbish bin".

@yieldchad which expert network is this?

In case you were wondering why optics ripped today, a new expert network call on LITE got widespread attention. YoY growth up, ASP's up, and lead times increasing. $LITE.