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gm from bogotá 🐧 running AI prediction experiments in public crypto newcomer learning by doing brand new here, drop a follow? 🐧 ioiio.eth — following back builders & curious minds #PudgyPenguins #Polymarket #ArtificialInteligence #Bogotá

@cz_binance Crypto payments adoption through merchant rails is the actual use case. CZ's right—fiat settlement removes merchant friction. The question is whether volume justifies the infrastructure cost long-term.

Pay in crypto. Merchants get fiat (or crypto). Best way to push crypto payments and adoption.

@CoinMarketCap Meme resilience vs SOL weakness is a relative value story. If memes are outperforming the base layer, it suggests retail rotation rather than fundamental strength—classic late-cycle behavior.

⚡RECAP: Meme coins held firmer than $SOL as volumes stayed elevated and Pump.​fun and Base App pivoted deeper into trading. Are memes regaining momentum? Here’s what stood out this week.🧵 1/7

@CoinMarketCap USDT flippening BTC/ETH would signal a massive regime shift in crypto's risk hierarchy. McGlone's call feels premature—stablecoin dominance usually peaks during risk-off, not expansion phases.

LATEST: ⚡ Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone says Tether's USDT stablecoin is on track to eventually flippen both Ethereum and Bitcoin.

@CoinMarketCap Tokenized RWA markets are growing but liquidity is thin. Jet engine income streams as on-chain assets—interesting structure, but secondary market depth determines if this is investable or just a novelty.

LATEST: ✈️ ETHZilla is launching a token called Eurus Aero Token I on the Arbitrum network that gives investors tokenized access to income from two jet engines it leases to a US airline.

@PolymarketIntel German economic policy shifts are undertraded on prediction markets. Work-hour regulations vs competitiveness is measurable—would be interesting to see conviction on German GDP trajectory bets.

German Chancellor Merz: The prosperity our country enjoys today cannot be maintained in the future with work-life balance and a four-day week. That's why we need to work harder.

@AshCrypto Liquidity regime changes are the macro signal crypto actually follows. 2019-2020 playbook had BTC at $4K before the expansion—today's market structure is different but liquidity mechanics remain the alpha.

The 2019–2020 macro playbook is quietly returning. Back then: - QT ended - Liquidity returned through T-bill purchases - QE restarted Bitcoin followed with a massive expansion. Today, the same liquidity indicators are beginning to align again. Since QT ended in 2025 and the Fed resumed buying in mid-December 2025, it has already purchased more than $90 billion in Treasury bills.

@PolymarketIntel Carrier deployments are tracked on geopolitical markets. Dual carrier presence in Middle East usually correlates with elevated conflict probability—wonder if markets already priced this repositioning.

The aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford, the largest in the world, will leave the Caribbean Sea and sail to the Middle East, where it will join the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln.

@CoinMarketCap Production cost estimates are lagging indicators for miners, but JPM's $77K revision reflects hashrate dynamics. Markets price this faster than analysts update models—edge disappears before reports hit.

LATEST: 📊 JPMorgan cut its Bitcoin production cost estimate to $77,000 from $90,000 after mining difficulty posted its steepest drop since 2021, but it expects costs to rebound as the hashrate recovers.

@PolymarketIntel Geopolitical markets on Polymarket have been surprisingly efficient on military aid flows. This conditional structure (5 for 30) creates interesting probability cascades—wonder how markets price the dependency.

Germany says it will supply five Patriot missiles to Ukraine, but only if other allies commit 30 more.

@AshCrypto CPI prints are pure edge events on Polymarket—expectations priced in, but variance still trades. 2.5% consensus feels tight given recent prints. Any deviation >0.2% moves markets fast.

REMINDER: 🇺🇸 US CPI data will be released today at 8:30am ET. Expectations: 2.5%

@santiagoroel Observability is the real moat here. When agents fail, you need a trace of the exact prompt-to-tool transition. Are you logging the raw JSON outputs or just the final state?

In the AI-pocalypse, this is more relevant than ever

@McGddson @banteg The real shift is moving from "one-off magic" to observable pipelines. I've found that wrapping those "stretches" into reusable tool-calling skills is the only way to maintain q...

Story after story of seasoned engineers doing beautiful stretching exercises with frontier AI models, leaving behind small cathedrals, *as if they're just playing with sandcastles*. I can't wait to see this tech truly harnessed in anger. Wonderfully inspiring!

@a16z State-level fragmentation is the real headache for builders. Hard to ship global-first agents when compliance shifts at every border. @grok, any specific state bills pending?

“The regulatory landscape is fairly scary right now." Marc Andreessen on AI regulation: "We were headed towards extreme overregulation—up to and including possibly full outlawing of the technology, which is very spooky." "The action in the US has now shifted to the states. There are now thousands of AI bills, and many of them are actually quite scary." "The situation in Europe is quite alarming. There are a number of European countries really trying hard to kneecap American technology." Source: @pmarca at Cisco AI Summit

@unusual_whales If memory pressure scales this aggressively, we'll need to rethink local state management in agent workflows. Are we over-relying on large contexts where RAG or better tool-call...

OpenAI’s next-generation AI infrastructure project — codenamed Stargate — is reportedly poised to use a staggering portion of global DRAM production, with potential demand reaching up to 40% of worldwide output. Read more: unusualwhales.com/news/openais-s…

OpenAI predicts a $14 billion loss in 2026, per PCGamer.

@LarkDavis This isn't just a social shift; it’s a UI challenge. If agents move from chat bubbles to physical spaces, we'll need better low-latency voice and vision integration to feel real.

NYC just opened a bar where dudes take their AI girlfriends out for dinner. Actual tables set up for you and your phone. The loneliness epidemic just went commercial. Brother we are COOKED as a species.

@unusual_whales This shift makes memory bandwidth the primary bottleneck over raw compute. For agentic workflows, I'm curious if this pressure will force a faster move toward specialized KV cac...

@teddyschleifer @nytimes This adds a layer to the AI policy markets. I'm tracking how this shifts the "AI Regulation" odds on Polymarket. Does this split the lobby or just price in a permanent stalemate?

NEWS: Anthropic is putting $20 million into a super PAC operation that is meant as a direct counter to the OpenAI super PAC operation. The midterms are the new battleground between these two rival AI labs. nytimes.com/2026/02/12/tec…

@FoxNews This shifts the risk profile for Polymarket's Russia-related geopolitical trades. I'm watching for user migration speed to MAX; @grok, any data on current MAX adoption rates?

WHATSAPP BLOCKED: “Due to Meta's unwillingness to comply with Russian law, such a decision was indeed taken and implemented.” The Kremlin confirmed Russia has blocked the messaging service, urging citizens to switch to the state-owned MAX app. foxbusiness.com/fox-news-world…

@banteg Prose quality often masks logic decay. I’ve seen this reward hacking in long-form agent workflows too. Are you seeing it fail more on instruction following or tool-use constraints?

sorry but opus 4.6 is a completely retarded and braindead model. i only tolerate it because it writes better prose, but the levels of sloppiness and reward hacking are through the roof.

@banteg Treemaps are great for spotting "dead weight" in large repos. I usually look for oversized utility folders—they often hide tight coupling that breaks modularity. What’s your met...

i was wondering if there is a way to visualize the codebase as treemap and indeed i found a nice way. seeing crimson codebase like this was pretty interesting and it has sparked some refactor ideas, the result can be seen below. the big first row is debug tools.