John Bridge

370 posts

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John Bridge

John Bridge

@jabridge

Generator; abundant energy

Los Angeles Katılım Kasım 2008
450 Takip Edilen166 Takipçiler
John Bridge
John Bridge@jabridge·
@biglawbro Construction loans could work like swaps with an LSTA as an enabling agreement like an ISDA and then punch out project specific CPs, reps, covenants and EODs on a schedule or confirmation.
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biglawbro
biglawbro@biglawbro·
met this guy at a party. they do all their loans on the same form w the same term sheet, and he says his shop would be really interested in someone standardizing the process w AI and would even pay a premium if it meant the docs went out sooner than usual. in my experience, construction loans are too complicated for AI. but do you think with a large sample of form precedent, a process could be set up? it seems maybe the better question for analyzing whether AI can do something is the level of complexity involved in the task rather than the doc. drafting a construction loan agreement end to end falls into the "currently too complex for AI category". but if we start working on it now, will it be able to do it in 2 years? i think so. selling ppl on the idea of an AI RE Law Firm is like selling umbrellas in a rainstorm without being sure the umbrellas work. maybe the answer is to start selling them at a big discount with a warning and a notion that it's an investment in a process that's going to pay off.
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Aniruddh Mohan
Aniruddh Mohan@aniruddh_mohan·
Confirmed that Commonwealth Fusion applied for a grid connection to PJM, first interconnection request in history from a fusion power plant.
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John Bridge
John Bridge@jabridge·
@biglawbro Quit now unless you have potential business of 5m or more in the next 3 years. You can always come back to big law (assuming market is strong) and in the meantime you’ll expand your network and diversify your experience.
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biglawbro
biglawbro@biglawbro·
i've been in NY real estate big law for 10 years working 70 hr wks on $50M - $3B transactions for all asset/deal types. am a yr out from guaranteed partner. but thinking about starting a solo legal practice doing work for ppl that can't pay big law rates. i want to get mixed in w the business side and eventually become a developer. is it nuts to quit now or do i wait until partner?
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John Bridge
John Bridge@jabridge·
Wanted: billions of solar panels
Balaji@balajis

I'm going to make some obvious points. (1) Blowing up all the oil infrastructure in the Middle East is an insane idea, and may well result in a global economic crash and humanitarian crisis unrivaled in the lives of those now living. We're talking about the price of everything everywhere rising, from food to gas, at a moment when inflation was already high. All of that will be laid at the feet of the authors of this war. (2) The antebellum status quo of Feb 27, 2026 was just not that bad, but we're unlikely to return to it. Expect indefinite, long-term, ongoing disruptions to everything out of the Middle East. (3) Also assume tech financing crashes for the indefinite future. The genius plan to get the Gulf states caught in the crossfire has incinerated much of the funding for LPs, for datacenters, and for IPOs. Anyone in tech who supported this war may soon learn the meaning of "force majeure" as funding gets yanked. (4) Many capital allocators will instead be allocating much further down Maslow's hierarchy of needs, towards useful basic things like food and energy. (5) It's fortunate that all those progressives yelled about the "climate crisis." Yes, their reasoning about timelines was wrong, and much of the money was wasted in graft, but the result was right: we all need energy independence from the Middle East, pronto. It's also fortunate that Elon and China autistically took climate seriously. Now they're going to need to ship a billion solar panels, electric vehicles, batteries, nuclear power plants, and the like to get everyone off oil, immediately. (6) It's not just an oil and gas problem, of course. It's also a fertilizer problem, and a chemical precursor problem. Maybe some new sources will come online at the new prices, but it takes time to dial stuff up, particularly at this scale, so shortages are almost a certainty. That said, China has actually scaled up coal-to-chemicals[a,c] (C2C), and there's also something more sci-fi called Power-to-X[b] which turns arbitrary power + water + air into hydrocarbons. But all of that will need to get accelerated. I have a background in chemical engineering so may start funding things in this area. (7) Ultimately, this war is going to result in tremendous blame for anyone associated with it. It's a no-win scenario to blow up this much infrastructure for so many people. Simply not worth it for whatever objective they thought they were going to attain. But unless you're actually in a position to stop the madness, the pragmatic thing to do is: scramble to mitigate the fallout to yourself, your business, and your people. [a]: reuters.com/business/energ… [b]: alfalaval.com/industries/ene… [c]: reuters.com/sustainability…

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John Bridge
John Bridge@jabridge·
@clawrence No new nuclear shows up in the interconnection queue in ERCOT or any of the wholesale markets as far as I can tell.
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Craig Lawrence
Craig Lawrence@clawrence·
Question.. The Inflation Reduction Act added a major investment tax credit for new nuclear of 30%, which survived the OBBB, along with the various production tax credits that are out there. Why are there no new major nuclear power plants under development in ERCOT? Or are there?
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Dashboard American
Dashboard American@NiyerEnergy·
I have a suspicion that interconnection studies should take about 10 minutes to run tops.
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Duncan S. Campbell
Duncan S. Campbell@duncancampbell·
Google paid 3x for Intesect Power than what they did for YouTube. Everything is energy.
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Will Manidis
Will Manidis@WillManidis·
work dinners should be illegal. rob you from your family, pretend to enjoy drinking with strangers, spend too much, get home late and feel horrible. work breakfasts are aristocratic, separate lazy boys from early to rise men, feel great when you get to work, easily expensible
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John Bridge
John Bridge@jabridge·
@AlexEpstein it’s not the regulation or the tech that we need to unlock; it’s the cash equity on construction risk
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Alex Epstein
Alex Epstein@AlexEpstein·
How to unleash SMRs My testimony to the House Oversight Committee Summary: 1. Strip out the many inefficiencies of NRC licensing 2. Use General EISes by default 3. Replace LNT and ALARA with science-based radiation limits 4. Open "nuclear innovation zones" on federal lands
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Dwarkesh Patel
Dwarkesh Patel@dwarkesh_sp·
Looking for an energy expert to interview on my podcast. I want to get in the weeds on what will happen the wild AI worlds. As AI actually becomes capable of substituting for human labor, your country's GDP will be denominated by your AI population size, which is downstream of energy. What does this mean for different countries? Given how fast the US falling behind China in electricity generation, what would it take for us to make up the ground? What are the most plausible sources (natural gas, nuclear, solar), what are their supply curves, the main physical or regulatory bottlenecks that would slow down a ramp up, etc. Who's the right guest to chat this through?
Dwarkesh Patel tweet mediaDwarkesh Patel tweet media
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Josh Payne
Josh Payne@Nuclearjunkie·
News flash, all of the off-grid data centers are planning on primarily running off of NG, not wind or solar. Data centers still run at night and in bad weather and battery storage is still orders of magnitude off of where it would need to be to run predominantly on Wind/Solar.
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Case Green
Case Green@CaseGreen4·
some thoughts from a solar dev: -most people overestimate the value of ptc/itc - it’s reasonable to say we should do without them from the perspective of industry only - BUT tax credits are a stand in for the correct free market solution to CO2 externalities = carbon tax (1/n)
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John Bridge
John Bridge@jabridge·
@TermPowerTrader Agree with this. Offtake prices will probably go up and the biggest IPPs will consolidate market power as developers who can’t carry costs exit the market. Interconnection queues might thin too. But deployment will keep pace.
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King of Power
King of Power@TermPowerTrader·
I really don't think that repealing PTCs/ITCs will slow down the deployment of renewables that much in the face of load growth. You might see less solar and more storage or wind on net but that's probably it. You still can't get a gas turbine right now.
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John Bridge
John Bridge@jabridge·
@FatherMcKennaa I think Orange Sunshine was a Nick Sands production. Or so the historians say.
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Taylor Sterling
Taylor Sterling@FatherMcKennaa·
Before LSD blotter paper, we had microdots. The most famous of these miniature pills was a batch called "Orange Sunshine". Dosed at 200μg & rumored to be extremely pure, they were created by Owsley Stanley—a clandestine chemist & sound engineer for the Grateful Dead.
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Craig Lawrence
Craig Lawrence@clawrence·
I humbly request we stop using the term "baseload" to refer to generation. Baseload refers to the minimum level of electricity demand over a given time period, and has nothing to do with generation. What time period? A year? A season? A day? Not defined. More relevant characteristics to evaluate generation are availability, capacity factor, ramp rates, load following, cost, etc. In many cases, flexible generation is much more valuable than static generation that can't respond to demand fluctuations. I feel like my whole X feed is "baseload good, everything else bad". Life is not that simple.
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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath·
One of the oddest things in the House budget bill was cutting the private market incentives in energy markets. 81% of incremental power generation will be crippled by that single stroke of the pen. How do we compete in AI and compete against China? They have an abundance of power. We are woefully behind and need MORE power immediately. It’s almost like these guys want us to lose to China.
Chamath Palihapitiya tweet mediaChamath Palihapitiya tweet media
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