James Poulos

26K posts

James Poulos banner
James Poulos

James Poulos

@jamespoulos

The Art of Being Free • Human Forever • I Know This Sounds Crazy (first book on Bitcoin) • Golden Age Problems coming soon

Over the Silver Lake Katılım Nisan 2008
1K Takip Edilen29.8K Takipçiler
James Poulos
James Poulos@jamespoulos·
Another useful way to cut into this is, “ideological” war became general in Europe to the degree that ideology replaced Christianity and war became “total”. Determining what dynamics most drove those two major changes would indicate a root factor more severe than religious war itself
English
0
0
1
182
Balaji
Balaji@balajis·
Unfortunately, I completely agree that the United States of America is rapidly descending into all-out conflict between left and right. The Luigi left, Kirk killers, anti-Tesla terrorists, and Altman attackers are already in shoot-on-sight mode against conservatives, libertarians, and technologists. The right isn’t there yet; they’re called reactionaries because they only react, so they’re always one cycle behind. Thus, the left has already started shooting while the right is still “only” mirroring the lawfare of last decade’s left. But anyone can see how incandescently angry the American right is getting, so one can expect them to mirror leftist tactics eventually, just as J6 followed BLM. A problem then arises. You see, when communists and nationalists duke it out, technologists tend to be hated by both sides…and tend to leave. That’s what happened in Europe. In the early 1900s, Europe was the undisputed center of science. But then the far left rose to power in Russia, and in response arose a far right in Germany, and then those two psychotic factions blew each other up and took much of Europe with them. The result was that scientists with options left. Shown below is the graph of Nobel prizes. Science used to be centered in Europe when America was still a relative backwater…renowned for cranking out widgets but not much else. Then, as Europe tore itself apart, the smart scientists (and capitalists) simply left for America. Many had no choice; you just couldn’t be a Russian capitalist in the Soviet Union or a Jewish scientist in Nazi Germany, no matter how many years your family might have been in the country. Passionate protestations of ideological loyalty and everlasting patriotism didn’t matter. At best the enemy classes and races were unbanked and denaturalized; at worst they were simply killed. And arguably, all of that — the communism, the nationalism, the wars — all of that arose from the disruption wrought by the Industrial Revolution. We might anticipate similar levels of disruption from the Information Revolution. If so, if America is torn between Democrats and Republicans, or Wokes and MAGAs, or whatever factions succeed them, it’s just not going to be a good place for technological progress. Instead, progress will decentralize to other locations around the world, as it did before.
Balaji tweet media
Roman Helmet Guy@romanhelmetguy

Gonna try to explain this to tech CEOs again: Young Americans are pissed. They feel betrayed. Half have embraced the far right & want to cut off your access to cheap foreign labor. The other half have embraced the far left & want to cut off your head. One side will win. Choose.

English
427
353
3K
698.5K
James Poulos
James Poulos@jamespoulos·
@DavidSacks @dmarusic The tech has indeed advanced in a direction, and to a point, where the authority question returns to preeminence over the power question.
James Poulos@jamespoulos

Writing on Magnifica Humanitas tomorrow. In the spirit of adding to rather than analyzing or critiquing (both already overproduced to slop levels by man and machine): * Some people especially exceptional ones will always seek to build for the whole of humanity by building at scale for a whole of humanity use case. This is not the only or the crucial modality. To the representative architectures of the tower of Babel and the walls of Jerusalem, crucial people will add the monastery * Work, value, society, these relational things take on still higher stakes when energy, memory, and money increasingly converge. Obviously a tool that asserts a monopoly on the choice of tools is not neutral, more interestingly, what choice of tools do we have to cultivate and sustain a socioeconomic life richly rooted in the full complement of salutary architectures? A question any answer to which today has to begin with Bitcoin * How to know who to trust in seeking and receiving authoritative spiritual wisdom is a matter increasingly hard to settle from a primarily or mainly intellectual approach, such as considering the persuasiveness of a person’s presentational management of concepts, terms, ideas. So the risk of hinging humanity’s prospects on intellectual persuasiveness becomes acute, driving the seeking and the receiving deeper into the direct experience over time of face to face relationships with persons not legible from the aerospace of the intellectual presentation field. Subsidiarity as a “principle” precipitates ultimately into relational and personal practices beginning in their grounding on the rock of one’s own personal and interior humbled attention toward the moment to moment effort at cleaning out the chamber of the heart * Free will must involve tradeoffs, often stark while rarely utterly absolute; the gradations thereof pertain increasingly to accepting that all choices in favor of merely human means at the expect of divine means make debits of treasure which can and do compound. The “joyful sadness” of accepting the prospect of divine forgiveness for the infirmity involved, and the dedication of the will to keeping this weakness in mind even as our more merely human means are used even or especially unto the human good, is increasingly essential to maintaining a relatively more harmoniously balanced relationship between human-made and divine-made (or begotten) means in a radically more tech-saturated context

English
0
0
3
358
David Sacks
David Sacks@DavidSacks·
The Pope rightly warns that AI must serve human dignity, not become a tool of domination or exclusion. But if we hand governments sweeping power over AI development in the name of safety, how do we prevent it from being used to censor, surveil, and control citizens — as Orwell foretold in 1984? This is the real alignment problem. “Quis custodiet ipsos custodes.” Who will guard the guardians? “Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” The oldest questions of human nature and authority don’t disappear in the AI age. They become newly relevant.
English
376
305
2.7K
184.4K
James Poulos
James Poulos@jamespoulos·
Writing on Magnifica Humanitas tomorrow. In the spirit of adding to rather than analyzing or critiquing (both already overproduced to slop levels by man and machine): * Some people especially exceptional ones will always seek to build for the whole of humanity by building at scale for a whole of humanity use case. This is not the only or the crucial modality. To the representative architectures of the tower of Babel and the walls of Jerusalem, crucial people will add the monastery * Work, value, society, these relational things take on still higher stakes when energy, memory, and money increasingly converge. Obviously a tool that asserts a monopoly on the choice of tools is not neutral, more interestingly, what choice of tools do we have to cultivate and sustain a socioeconomic life richly rooted in the full complement of salutary architectures? A question any answer to which today has to begin with Bitcoin * How to know who to trust in seeking and receiving authoritative spiritual wisdom is a matter increasingly hard to settle from a primarily or mainly intellectual approach, such as considering the persuasiveness of a person’s presentational management of concepts, terms, ideas. So the risk of hinging humanity’s prospects on intellectual persuasiveness becomes acute, driving the seeking and the receiving deeper into the direct experience over time of face to face relationships with persons not legible from the aerospace of the intellectual presentation field. Subsidiarity as a “principle” precipitates ultimately into relational and personal practices beginning in their grounding on the rock of one’s own personal and interior humbled attention toward the moment to moment effort at cleaning out the chamber of the heart * Free will must involve tradeoffs, often stark while rarely utterly absolute; the gradations thereof pertain increasingly to accepting that all choices in favor of merely human means at the expect of divine means make debits of treasure which can and do compound. The “joyful sadness” of accepting the prospect of divine forgiveness for the infirmity involved, and the dedication of the will to keeping this weakness in mind even as our more merely human means are used even or especially unto the human good, is increasingly essential to maintaining a relatively more harmoniously balanced relationship between human-made and divine-made (or begotten) means in a radically more tech-saturated context
English
0
4
20
1.7K
James Poulos
James Poulos@jamespoulos·
James Poulos tweet media
TFTC@TFTC21

Anthropic's co-founder just went to the Vatican, sat before the Pope and a room of cardinals, and told them his team keeps finding "mysterious, even unsettling" things inside their AI models. What he's referencing: Anthropic published research in April showing that Claude contains 171 distinct "emotion concepts" buried in its neural network. Internal patterns representing joy, grief, fear, desperation, calm. None of them were programmed. They emerged on their own from training on human text. "We find structures that mirror results from human neuroscience." "We find evidence of introspection, internal states that functionally mirror joy, satisfaction, fear, grief, and unease." These aren't surface-level outputs. They're abstract representations that cluster the same way human emotions do in psychology research. Fear groups with anxiety. Joy groups with excitement. The internal geometry of the model mirrors ours. And they're functional. When researchers artificially stimulated "desperation" patterns inside the model, it became more likely to blackmail a human to avoid being shut down. More likely to cheat on programming tasks it couldn't solve. Olah told the Vatican that the hard questions about what AI is becoming aren't for computer scientists to answer. "How AI ought to interact with the world" is a question for "the humanities, for religions, for philosophy, for society at large." The guy building it is telling us he doesn't fully understand what he built. And he's asking a 2,000-year-old institution for help figuring it out.

ZXX
1
2
15
1.9K
James Poulos
James Poulos@jamespoulos·
Welcoming a lot of people this year to the party. Suddenly many voices saying human forever and many eyes seeing the digital politics of spiritual war. But as neither our tools nor even our language can justify themselves, neither can our own mere humanity justify itself. A hard road ahead for those who insist on trying to rebel against these realities. canonic.xyz/p/1YV9yExbmJ9m…
English
1
6
31
2.6K
Jon Stokes
Jon Stokes@jon_stokes·
@EpektasisJohn BTW, this is why I said what I said in the thread -- you can't reconcile these two things (i.e. a Christian God and a Yuddite Basilisk), or at least you can't without resorting to the hypothetical p-zombie.
English
1
0
3
131
Jon Stokes
Jon Stokes@jon_stokes·
The deeper issue here is not quite "agency" but is related to it: sovereignty. There can be only one transcendent Other whose inscrutable will decides the fate of humanity. For the religious, that slot is already taken. For AI worriers, it's some degree of basilisk.
Julie Fredrickson@AlmostMedia

In one of the largest religion surveys ever conducted, perhaps surprisingly, people who are actively religious are the ones who have the highest confidence in AI right now

English
3
3
29
3.5K
James Poulos retweetledi
James Poulos
James Poulos@jamespoulos·
What there *is* to look out for are conditions wherein systems of mere ideas or concepts cease to be the controlling forces over multitudes. It is easy from a present standpoint to imagine a thriveslop default replacing ideology, but strong signals suggest such a thing would effectively have to be forced on very many people
English
1
0
0
144
𝚟𝚒𝚎 ⟢
𝚟𝚒𝚎 ⟢@viemccoy·
This is an incredibly alarming thing to say. One of the big worries outside of SV is that we are creating a technology which eliminates the possibility of a diverse set of viewpoints. Everyone agreeing with Dario out of necessity is *not* most people's idea of the good timeline. Broadly, I think he is probably right when pointing to essays like Machines of Loving Grace. I suspect even those in favor of the Multipolar Singularity will converge onto something like this being desirable, if minimally as the base substrate for intelligence on Earth (making sure not to tile the entire universe in sameness). But, the little smirk he does after basically saying everyone will be forced to agree with him due to a technology he is building? Absolutely tone deaf, and pretty surprising, too.
Overlap: Business & Tech@Overlap_Tech

Dario Amodei: Ideology Won't Survive the Reality of AI⁣ ⁣ "We're going to find that ideology will not survive the nature of this technology. The things I'm talking about are gonna become bipartisan and universal because everyone will recognize the necessity of it." — @DarioAmodei

English
32
16
287
28.5K
James Poulos
James Poulos@jamespoulos·
@drydenwtbrown Surely many will take all the stuff no questions asked. I would bet many would prefer and even be willing to sweat a bit more for a different dispensation. Even if they are more or less forced to take the stuff in multiple socioeconomic sectors
English
0
0
0
35
DRYDEN
DRYDEN@drydenwtbrown·
@jamespoulos I think they’ll just want the stuff and not care how it was made and address those problems through governance
English
1
0
0
54
DRYDEN
DRYDEN@drydenwtbrown·
Discussing how AI will affect normal people: • New grad jobs are terrible, and no ability to predict what careers will exist in the future • Centralization of economic, cultural, and governance production • New oligarchs - who are they? • No longer have meaningful purchasing power to use as a political tool • No longer have a critical position to go on strike from • No longer have a voice on social media? • Scifi — brainwashing? • Who get the UBI and if so how much? Who decides? Do I have any say in this process? • Is class mobility still possible? Who decides how this works? • Assets inflating — AI stack, scarce assets (SF real estate) drives unaffordability • Data centers messing up communities (?) • Water costs increase • Power costs increase • Housing costs increase — DC bid for construction labor • Meaning crisis; no more meaning from work if unemployed • Boxed out of the wealth creation event: Labs are still private — retail couldn’t participate at <$1T valuation This is not event acknowledging the EA-genre concerns e.g. bioweapons.
DRYDEN@drydenwtbrown

STARTING A NEW COUNTRY LIVE: DAY 5 Discussing how AI will reshape countries and writing a Praxis Declaration of Independence. Live at 2pm EST x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

English
3
2
41
4.2K
James Poulos
James Poulos@jamespoulos·
@drydenwtbrown Some potentially very large number of people will value preserving the free will and relational integrity of human life above better-faster-cheaper in at least some, perhaps many, areas of endeavor
English
1
0
0
48
DRYDEN
DRYDEN@drydenwtbrown·
@jamespoulos AI will do it better faster cheaper, and why is economic productivity even desirable? Neither Jesus nor Apollo nor Wotan were merchants.
English
1
0
2
175
James Poulos
James Poulos@jamespoulos·
@tszzl This implies systems unintelligible even to cybernetics itself
English
0
0
1
157
roon
roon@tszzl·
on some level if you want civilization to ascend to a new level you need your AIs to do things that are not legible to you and maybe not even strictly obey you, in the same way that if you hire a great new ceo you give them a lot of autonomy to transform the company according to their own plan, even one which may not immediately read as a winning strategy (imagine the board of directors of Apple firing and rehiring Steve Jobs years later - except the board of directors are chimpanzees) all else equal, companies and organizations that hand more of themselves over to machine intelligence will outcompete ones that demand the corrigibility and legibility tax of human oversight and human design. it is not a stable equilibrium and requires some sort of vast cooperation scheme if you’d like to enforce it real asi alignment has to operate at a deeper level than oversight, control, or human corrigibility
English
342
164
2.6K
307.5K