Jordan Danzansky

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Jordan Danzansky

Jordan Danzansky

@jdanz3394

#HTTR part time meteorologist. almost scratch golfer. poppy and dylans dad. i also build things

South Florida Katılım Mart 2009
528 Takip Edilen179 Takipçiler
Jordan Danzansky
Jordan Danzansky@jdanz3394·
@operationdanish “Leadership is harder than appeasement” amen. Microcosm of our entire society right there. Starts with the parents.
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Dr Danish
Dr Danish@operationdanish·
We now have evidence that gentle parenting doesn’t work. Here’s an uncomfortable truth about parenting no one wants to say out loud: The data is not kind to gentle parenting. According to teenagers, strict curfews. strict bedtimes, screen limits, device drop off times, dedicated homework blocks, and sleepover restrictions IMPROVE higher relationship quality. And yes, parenting difficulty goes up. Of course it does. Leadership is harder than appeasement. For the past decade we have been sold a watered down, Instagram friendly version of “gentle parenting” that often collapses into boundary avoidance, endless negotiation and emotional processing without enforcement. Parents terrified of saying no because they do not want to rupture connection. But connection without authority is not connection. It is dependency. When parents impose structure, the relationship improves. Teenagers report better parent child relationship quality in homes with curfews and rules. Younger kids report better relationships in homes with screen limits and bedtimes. Even device drop off times correlate positively. Why? Because structure is not cruelty. Structure is love made visible. A bedtime says: your brain matters more than your entertainment. A screen limit says: your dopamine system is not fully developed and I will guard it until it is. A curfew says: your safety matters more than your social standing. That is not authoritarianism. That is caring. Boundaries create friction. Friction creates growth. The parent absorbs the short term discomfort so the child does not pay the long term cost. Children do not experience well calibrated limits as rejection. They experience them as stability. The human brain craves predictability. Predictability reduces anxiety. Reduced anxiety strengthens attachment. That is why relationship quality goes up. Notice something else in the data. The strongest effects are around time structure. Bedtime. Homework. Devices. Outside play. These are environmental constraints. They scaffold executive function. The winning formula is not tyranny. It is high warmth plus high structure. The modern failure mode is high warmth plus low structure. That is just abdication of responsibility wrapped in empathy. Children need leadership, not negotiation. They need adults who can tolerate their anger. They need boundaries that do not move every time emotions spike. They need someone whose prefrontal cortex is fully myelinated. The harder path produces the stronger bond. Because when a child feels that someone is strong enough to hold the line, they relax. And relaxed nervous systems build durable relationships.
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Barrett Linburg
Barrett Linburg@DallasAptGP·
You’re fighting over real estate deals in a major metro. Meanwhile, a city 30 minutes away will pay you to take their problem properties. Stop refreshing CoStar. Start calling Economic Development offices. Can work for multifamily, office, retail…
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Jordan Danzansky
Jordan Danzansky@jdanz3394·
@blakeaburge Mentor told me “if you think back on something 3x, take action or kick it down the road again and revisit if you think about it 3x again”
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Blake Burge
Blake Burge@blakeaburge·
A rule that will lower your anxiety: Don’t replay conversations you can’t change, and don’t pre-live ones that haven’t happened. Focus on the next right action. Most stress comes from living everywhere except the present.
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Austen Allred
Austen Allred@Austen·
I don’t think everyone realizes how polarizing it is to watch someone steal an amount of money they’ve worked 30 years for by throwing up a sign in a vacant building and sending the government an invoice
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Jordan Danzansky
Jordan Danzansky@jdanz3394·
@DallasAptGP Literally thought of a similar product for my coconut trees in Florida. They spew thousands of little pedals before coconuts start to grow! Would buy!
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Barrett Linburg
Barrett Linburg@DallasAptGP·
My 10-year-old daughter is entering her Shark Tank era. She wants your feedback. She binge-watched the show. Like any good entrepreneur, she found a problem in her own backyard (literally) and built a solution. She wants a market check. Be honest. But remember... she's 10. If you own an oak tree, you know. Her Grandmother's 100-year-old oak drops thousands of acorns every fall. They roll under your feet like tiny wheels. Twisted ankles waiting to happen. They turn into oily, gritty sludge when cars drive over them. They're toxic to dogs. They're a nightmare to rake. Her Solution She wants to build a product to solve this "Acorn Anarchy." Here's the concept: Material: Industrial-grade stainless steel mesh. Not a cheap tarp. Design: Custom-fit to your tree's canopy. Up to 80 feet of coverage. Suspended off the ground. Function: A drawstring funnel at the bottom. Pull it, and the acorns dump out. No raking. Look: Clean and architectural. Not an eyesore. The Price Because she insists on quality materials, the price is steep. Around $430 for a large custom unit. The Pitch I told her $430 was too expensive for a net. She told me I didn't understand the "Acorn Economy." She researched it. Acorns aren't trash. They're a product people buy. Hunters use them for deer bait. Collectors buy them for replanting. They sell for up to $6 per pound. Her pitch: "Dad, it's not a net. It pays you back. It covers its cost in two seasons. And you never have to rake again." I fact-checked her. She's right. The Ask: Homeowners, we need to know if this market exists before we start welding in the garage. Would you buy this? YES - Take my money. The acorns are ruining my yard. YES - But only if it's cheaper. I don't care about steel vs. nylon. NO - I'll stick to raking. NO - But I'm impressed she did the math on acorn resale. Let her know. We'll read the comments at dinner tonight.
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Tom Schad
Tom Schad@Tom_Schad·
The #Commanders will now be without six defensive starters vs. the Dolphins. Two have torn ACLs, two have fractured fibulas, one has a torn quad and one is suspended for throwing a punch. Also without their star QB, starting RB and top two WRs.
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Eyal Yakoby
Eyal Yakoby@EYakoby·
Why is the Muslim Brotherhood reposting Tucker Carlson?
Eyal Yakoby tweet media
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Bonchie
Bonchie@bonchieredstate·
Influencers have turned into giant wusses who cry cancellation the moment anyone criticizes them, even in response to their own criticism. No one is trying to cancel Matt Walsh.
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Josh Morgerman
Josh Morgerman@iCyclone·
@Omen_of_X I'm from New York. Do not make assumptions about my family or their politics. The person in the image is not identifiable, so no permission is needed. Have a good night.
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Bag-a-Chat!
Bag-a-Chat!@Omen_of_X·
Do you ask? Do you get approval to post? You just surveil? …. When you go back to Mississippi do you talk to your conservative family members about driving them big ford trucks and voting MAGA, and how they assist in causing this?
Josh Morgerman@iCyclone

@Omen_of_X Not a drone. I don't travel with such gadgetry. I was on a staircase. And this is the style of photography I always do, even in my hometown-- natural, candid shots of everyday people going about their business.

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Jordan Danzansky
Jordan Danzansky@jdanz3394·
@JayDanielsMVP Fell asleep at halftime bc wtf was that. Woke up literally to see Jayden get hurt. In a daze I’m thinking it’s 38-7 with 4 min left. WHY IS HE STILL IN. And went back to bed. Welcome to skins fandom! 30 years of this! 2 flash in the pan seasons. The rest are a joke..sad for #5
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brandon
brandon@JayDanielsMVP·
I don’t care. Jayden Daniels getting injured is 100% on Dan Quinn & the coaching staff. NO reason why your starting QB should be in the game down 38-7 playing in garbage time.
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Andy Hazelton
Andy Hazelton@AndyHazelton·
This was pretty wild. I went to bed around 7 Monday evening ahead of our early flight the next day into #Melissa and fully expected the storm to be in the middle of an eyewall replacement cycle when I woke up, similar to #Maria right before Puerto Rico. Instead somehow it did yet another merger and became one of the strongest hurricanes the world has ever seen. This is definitely going to be a major research focus for this storm.
Nikhil Trivedi@DCAreaWx

Still thinking about #Melissa's extremely smooth merger EWRC yesterday. An outer eyewall developed, rapidly shrunk to the size of the inner eyewall, and merged with it. Subsequently, the eye expanded, CDO smoothed, and deepening to 892mb ensued (until interaction with Jamaica).

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Andy Hazelton
Andy Hazelton@AndyHazelton·
This post aged very well, unfortunately. Rapid intensification for #Melissa was probably easier to predict in this case than some because of the extremely favorable large-scale conditions. But it's also worth noting that some of our newer models were also hinting at a historical hurricane. Most of the runs of our experimental version of HAFS-B have been calling for a Category 5, several runs (from early on) for the extreme 160+ knots that we saw. A big part of the reason this version of HAFS did so well with this forecast is it correctly showed the W/SW turn south of Jamaica, which put the storm in a lower shear environment and over extremely high ocean heat content. Track often matters for intensity in cases like this. Google Deepmind (another key new tool) showed a variety of scenarios, but clearly indicated the possibility of a high end hurricane if it tracked a little more southwest. We still have a lot of work to do on hurricane forecasting (for example, why did Melissa not do a traditional eyewall replacement cycle?), but I will say it's amazing how much progress we've made in the last 10 years!
Andy Hazelton tweet mediaAndy Hazelton tweet mediaAndy Hazelton tweet media
Andy Hazelton@AndyHazelton

If #Melissa does end up turning west over the Caribbean south of Jamaica (like the HAFS/HMON/Euro forecasts show), I don't think it's hyperbolic to say we will likely get a Category 5, and quite possibly one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the Atlantic. -Deep, warm water (above average) -A massive upper anticyclone -Enhanced divergence from the jet to the north -Moist environment At that point, the only constraint on intensity would be inner-core structure and the maximum potential intensity (MPI).

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Jordan Danzansky
Jordan Danzansky@jdanz3394·
@Sleepy00287443 @iCyclone Dorian was strong, but I do not recall Dorian being a 892mb buzzsaw on landfall....if I remember right, Dorian was degrading a bit by time it got to Bahamas?
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Josh Morgerman
Josh Morgerman@iCyclone·
10:25 am. Frightening power. Whiteout. Roofs teaing off. Gusts like bombs going off. Painful ears. Praise the lord for solid concrete. 962 mb
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Jordan Danzansky
Jordan Danzansky@jdanz3394·
@iCyclone Little jog West with the land interaction, presumably. You’re in prime intercept location. Stay safe. Incoming…
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Josh Morgerman
Josh Morgerman@iCyclone·
9:35 am. Crashing sounds —like an explosion. Wreckage flying down the street. Trees bending way over. Very unpleasant pressure in the ears. #Hurricane #MELISSA in Crawford, St. Elizabeth Parish #Jamaica
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Jordan Danzansky
Jordan Danzansky@jdanz3394·
@Mike__Gagliardi Please provide links to those setting up aid. Need to get it in there fast! Not sure many ppl understand what the aftermath of this will look like….
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Mike Gagliardi (Tropics)
Mike Gagliardi (Tropics)@Mike__Gagliardi·
Numerous disaster relief groups across Florida are currently preparing aid to send to Jamaica once #Melissa passes.
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Jordan Danzansky
Jordan Danzansky@jdanz3394·
@MatthewCappucci Looks like she jogged a little west too, probably due to land interaction? Should get pulled back NE along prevailing trajectory, right?
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Matthew Cappucci
Matthew Cappucci@MatthewCappucci·
Melissa continues to intensify right up until the point of landfall. An EEL, or Eyewall Enveloped Lightning, signature is present. This is an absolute worst case-scenario with little precedent in the modern era in the Western Hemisphere.
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Jeremy DeHart
Jeremy DeHart@JeremyDeHartWX·
Looks like they are heading out NW now. They were probably just trying to figure out the best path out, which is basically impossible when the entire eyewall is lit up with severe turb and lightning. Same thing happened on my Michael flight: x.com/jeremydehartwx…
Jeremy DeHart tweet media
Jeremy DeHart@JeremyDeHartWX

(3/3) As the flight path shows, we made the fix then loitered in the eye for a bit to gather ourselves. The wx officer is usually busiest in the eye, so I had a rare opp to snap a pic and take in the moment. #Michael was every bit of the 919mb monster we measured. Unforgettable.

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Jeremy DeHart
Jeremy DeHart@JeremyDeHartWX·
Increasingly worried about my crew mates as they have been circling in the eye for over 20 mins now. Still no dropsonde has been transmitted. Extrap SLP is down to 892mb. Hopefully they are just trying to get a good sonde out and it's not something more serious
Jeremy DeHart tweet mediaJeremy DeHart tweet mediaJeremy DeHart tweet media
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