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@jdh

Katılım Ocak 2009
0 Takip Edilen20.3K Takipçiler
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🄹🄳🄷@jdh·
@BadEconomicTake @MediaKing It’s like .4 Weird measure here though because there’s no vintage structure I’ve deployed more of the capital in the last few years so weighs down a blended DPI Line is $in, green $out, you can see 1x+ on the money pre 22 Surprisingly biggest winner is 25%, next <5%
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Matt Paulson
Matt Paulson@MediaKing·
10 years ago, I wanted to become an "angel investor." Signed up for AngelList when syndicates first came out in 2014. Invested about $300K from 2014-2019 across 53 deals. Backed the best names and top syndicates on the platform. IRR: 7.8% 💀💀💀
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🄹🄳🄷@jdh·
@ilyasu @MediaKing Very good question I guess I wanted to defend AL a little bit Also flex I suppose At least I cropped off the $
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🄹🄳🄷@jdh·
@the_judge1111 Risk aversion in VC is true but I think off the peak, post SaaS era VC is not high status sorry, not in the arena, it’s low/mid Founders don’t want the appropriate pricing that comes with deeply risky bets Tough example co to choose, skeptical VCs may be proven right in end
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Judge Holden
Judge Holden@the_judge1111·
‘VC’ has become a flashy label for capital allocators who want to be seen as risk takers and high status Most actual venture is carried by founders, weird angels, and a few people with real conviction and everyone else shows up once it’s safe enough to ‘underwrite’
Ian Hogarth@soundboy

A key lesson from Boom is that right before their epic milestone (supersonic flight) it wasn't possible to raise from normal VCs. They were carried through that moment by people like Paul Graham and Alex Gerko acting with actual conviction

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🄹🄳🄷@jdh·
@bgurley @ASankarraman Blocking China EV so dumb. USA carmakers will fall so far behind they can never catch up. Probably should let BYD sell cars here if they make them here.
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Bill Gurley
Bill Gurley@bgurley·
@ASankarraman Same in EVs. Blocking is using the late 1900 European playbook. Will have same effect.
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Bill Gurley
Bill Gurley@bgurley·
This is 💯 right. You might as well put a high-fence around the United States. We wouldn’t be locking other people out — we would be caging ourselves in. & using AI with price/performance that isn’t globally competitive. No need to protect the fastest growing company of all time.
Deirdre Bosa@dee_bosa

Banning or restricting Chinese models in the US would backfire and cede the global AI ecosystem to Beijing the new AI paradox: slowing America, speeding China

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🄹🄳🄷@jdh·
@jasonlk A seemingly high-status profession that's actually low-status with the only group of people whose opinion you really care about: founders.
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Jason ✨👾SaaStr.Ai✨ Lemkin
Jason ✨👾SaaStr.Ai✨ Lemkin@jasonlk·
My theories and experiences, why so many VCs are unhappy (even though most are very well paid): 1. Easy to fail slowly This leads to years of low-level but constant stress. Pretending growth will reaccelerate in your big investments. Hoping your biggest check will pan out … when it won’t. Knowing you probably won’t be part of the next fund. Etc. 2. Easy to fall out of being a winner Many have a few strong investments but then markets, timing, energy change and/or networks decay. This can lead to plenty of anxiety 3. Partnership dynamics Many VC partnerships are sort of quietly toxic. They look and sound supportive. But even where there is “no attribution”, every one knows who sourced, and who owns, the big winners. There is so much quiet bravado, and wolf pack heirarchies. 4. Partnerships > n=2 are unstable They just are. Partnerships really are meant … for two.
Anna Khan@annarchyy

I've said this to a lot of people in person, but never publicly. Maybe you all can weigh in. I love being a VC, its such a privilege. So why are most VCs insecure, relentless, almost bitter? Relax. Its all about the entrepreneur anyway. You're just along for the ride.

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🄹🄳🄷@jdh·
@haralabob Remember they used Gilbert's flash seats app. A mess but a very cool feature you could place bids on seats. There were a half dozen courtside day-of so I think I got a bit lucky, listings were ~20k at that point but someone bit
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Haralabos Voulgaris
Haralabos Voulgaris@haralabob·
@jdh I think i paid 50k per for Cleveland GSW G7 or so but I forget
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🄹🄳🄷@jdh·
@bcantrill I thought this reply to the post you QT'd was so funny "all my friends tell me he is a dick and screwed them over. I really respect the guy and he seems like a good person..."
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Bryan Cantrill
Bryan Cantrill@bcantrill·
There are a few VC firms that we have refused to engage with at all. First among them is a firm that many entrepreneurs AND VCs warned us about -- one that actively harmed companies. So I have heard many horror stories about Khosla Ventures; we can add this one to that list!
Matthew Prince 🌥@eastdakota

One more I forgot until just reminded: 3. Khosla Ventures wanted to invest in our Series C. Vinod took me, Michelle, and Lee out to dinner after he’d given us a term sheet. Near the end, Michelle and Lee got up to use the restroom. Vinod leaned over and said: “I’m impressed with you, not so much with them, what if you fire them and I’ll give you all their stock?” I think the charitable read was it was a test of my character. But I was so offended that we never spoke again. Literally blocked his number.

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🄹🄳🄷@jdh·
@tjparker ego theater, mostly low status founders trying to assert that they are, despite not running a hot startup or possibly even something that is working, still higher status than VCs. (which is to be fair mostly true but funny how they need to say it)
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TJ Parker⚡️
TJ Parker⚡️@tjparker·
This VC meme is very funny. If someone falling asleep, not liking your idea, or ghosting you gets you bent out of shape, NGMI. Go spend a day in private equity or try competing with an incumbent. Venture is arguably the most pleasant form of dealmaking in the world.
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🄹🄳🄷@jdh·
@biancoresearch Table stakes of fighting deeply unpopular wars is close-to-zero American deaths. This drives insane cost and complexity, it's an irrational way to fight a war, only possible when 100:1 overmatched opponent, which Iran does not appear to be.
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Jim Bianco
Jim Bianco@biancoresearch·
When the U.S. launched Project Freedom about two weeks ago and sent destroyers into the Strait of Hormuz (protected by ~100 planes at a cost of $50–100 million in just two days), Iran hit Gulf neighbors in retaliation. The media reported that some Gulf states were furious — partly because senior U.S. officers had downplayed their defense as a low priority. Restated: the U.S. military already had its hands full. We don’t have an effective shield against mass, the cheap drones and missiles fired against a large area, like an entire Gulf country (see Ukraine, they do). The Gulf states got so nervous that they suspended U.S. use of their air bases, making them justifiable targets. So the operation was paused after two days. Yesterday, Trump just told them we were about to strike again. They raised the same concern, “Iran will drown us in drones,” and we still don’t have a good defensive answer. They pushed back hard. Trump backed down. By the way, this is classic 21st-century war. Decentralized. Highly mobile attack groups. Mass quantities of cheap, attritable, unmanned weapons designed to overwhelm defenses. Rapidly iterative (like software updates every few weeks). 20th-century war was the opposite: a handful of exquisite, insanely expensive platforms (carriers, F-35s, tanks) that take years to upgrade. The 21st century is about cost-benefit: make attacking so expensive and difficult that even superpowers get frustrated. The U.S. is learning this the hard way right now — and so is everyone else. France & UK gave up on the Bab-el-Mandeb vs. the Houthis. Russia is stuck in Ukraine. Israel is struggling in southern Lebanon (now that they have FPV drones). Even China may hesitate on Taiwan because of its “porcupine” defense (which is getting assistance from Ukraine). 21st-century warfare has found the formula to challenge every major military power on earth.
The Hormuz Letter@HormuzLetter

BREAKING: The Pentagon reveals Trump paused the strikes on Iran not for negotiations as he claimed, but because Iran is becoming rapidly more effective at tracking US air operations, improving its air defenses and becoming too strong at detecting signs of a surprise attack, per NYT. Iran has used the ceasefire to successfully dig out all bombed ballistic missile sites, making them fully operational again. Iran also moved a large number of new mobile launchers across the entire country and adjusted tactics for any resumption of strikes, per a US military official. Iranian commanders studied US fighter jet and bomber flight patterns with close Russian and Chinese help. The recent downing of an F-15E and groundfire striking an F-35 revealed American flight tactics had become "too predictable."

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🄹🄳🄷@jdh·
@escvel0city11 @atelicinvest Maybe it’s all just memes Value just a meme no underlying rhyme or reason Coherence that lasts for years starts to feel like a truth But even DCF, nifty fifty etc is just a bunch of people cohering around a religion for a while Value guy thinks BTC guy an idiot and Vice Versa
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Unemployed Capital Allocator
Unemployed Capital Allocator@atelicinvest·
Once again, all the money was in getting the big picture + momentum stuff right. It's been an absolute disastrous 25-30 year period for the 'bottoms-up-only-focus-on-company-quality' crowd. Starting to think the whole religion was hallucinated.
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🄹🄳🄷@jdh·
@TrungTPhan Vague linkedin profile, or especially no LinkedIn profile, is a flex.
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Trung Phan
Trung Phan@TrungTPhan·
Apple’s CFO for most of Tim Cook’s run was Luca Maestri (2014-2024). He had 2 IR employees while managing Apple’s $200B+ cash pile with only 7 employees and this LinkedIn profile:
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Trung Phan@TrungTPhan

Still shocked John Ternus pulled off Apple CEO with lazy LinkedIn profile: ▫️no banner image ▫️blank profile photo for logged out users ▫️no breakdown of all Apple positions (including role-by-role achievements) ▫️0 social posts (should pin commencement speech) How are suppliers, manufacturers and future customers going to make a connection in the future with so little to work off? Truly a curious choice.

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🄹🄳🄷@jdh·
@bhatiani @catehall Sadly all in a portfolio and mostly hard to have any clue which would be the winners at the start!
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Amit Bhatiani
Amit Bhatiani@bhatiani·
@jdh @catehall In the future, if you could pass your only 100x after all this dilution dealflow to us, we'd appreciate it.
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Cate Hall
Cate Hall@catehall·
god it's so depressing to have been trying to get exposure to Anthropic for six fucking months
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🄹🄳🄷@jdh·
@JaredSleeper Yeah, I hear that, happy to bet against it. I guess it's possible, personally, I'd rather buy the best company in the world at this moment for a 16x forward P/E or whatever it is Seems to clever by half to me to think you can predict that
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Jared Sleeper
Jared Sleeper@JaredSleeper·
In that case I think the question is intelligence exhaustion/consumption capacity. Perhaps the models get too good/efficient and exhaust human capacity to consume them and they end up running locally in 3-4 years on stock Mac silicon. A few smart LT bears have mentioned this today
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Jared Sleeper
Jared Sleeper@JaredSleeper·
Geniunely curious- can someone explain the bifurcation between Silicon Valley mega-bullishness on inference spend/token volumes and the softness in inference-levered public equities? Coreweave, Nebius, NVIDIA, etc. It is a pretty remarkable incongruence.
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🄹🄳🄷@jdh·
@JaredSleeper I'm looking for the bear thesis that actually proves true, not the one that will change the price next week
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🄹🄳🄷@jdh·
@JaredSleeper Sure, like "helium shortage" even though losing 20% of production for 3 mos doesn't really change the DCF value at all, still can move markets, but that's your buying opportunity then, to have a longer time horizon than tomorrow.
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🄹🄳🄷@jdh·
@LukeGromen How long do you think they’ll be without helium? What do you think that does to the DCF of Nvidia? Not clear to me that Nvidia is an enterprise is 10, 20 or 30% less valuable if it has to reduce production for three months
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Keşfet

@BadEconomicTake @MediaKing @ilyasu @the_judge1111 @bgurley @ASankarraman @jasonlk @haralabob