David Greenberg

1.7K posts

David Greenberg

@jktadave

Prior career in foreign affairs, mostly in SE Asia. Individual investor. Sharing trades to welcome feedback/ideas, but nothing I say is investment advice.

Katılım Temmuz 2022

20 Takip Edilen211 Takipçiler

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David Greenberg@jktadave·12 Eki

I appreciate this line from @nntaleb: "Never ask anyone for their opinion, forecast, or recommendation. Just ask them what they have—or don't have—in their portfolio." I'll post summaries of my write-ups. They aren't recommendations, just a record of my reasons for my trades.

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David Greenberg@jktadave·1h

@invest091 Interesting, tks for sharing. Thoughts: 1) I wonder how consumers being stretched affects decisions on trad braces vs. clear aligners. 2) combining "buybacks became the dominant use of cash" w/ "stock down 70%" is damning. Execs didn't return capital, they incinerated it.

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Michael | Stock Spotlight 🎙️@invest091·20h

One thing that stood out researching $ALGN: Despite growth slowing, Align still converts a significant amount of earnings into cash flow and has aggressively returned capital via buybacks. Since 2015: • Operating cash flow expanded materially • Buybacks became the dominant use of cash • No dividend • Minimal acquisition spend outside of 2020 Listen to the full episode out now with the recap also available on Substack.

Michael | Stock Spotlight 🎙️ tweet media

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David Greenberg@jktadave·1d

I first learned of Luxottica in 2016, when my kids were watching @adamconover's TV show "Adam Ruins Everything," which sought to expose the firm's vast influence & control. My takeaway: market dominance, huge gross margins, etc. -- good investment. youtube.com/watch?v=h7H-_8…

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David Greenberg@jktadave·1d

On Friday, I bought $ESLOY ADRs. (EssiliorLuxottica has two classes of ADRs; ESLOY is more liquid than ESLOF.) EssilorLuxottica is the principal partner of $META in the development, manufacturing, and distribution of Meta's AI glasses, but that's not a crucial factor for me.

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David Greenberg@jktadave·3d

@invest091 When I was doing due diligence for my ZBH buy, I watched this clip of its autonomous robot in action... (A clip of a procedure with a SYK robot is earlier in the thread.) x.com/jktadave/statu…

David Greenberg@jktadave

Understanding how the Mako works makes this other robot model -- created by Monogram, which ZBH recently acquired -- seem all the more impressive. This clip (also a bit graphic) is only 6 minutes long but shows an autonomous saw in action: youtube.com/watch?v=Qi2_PM…

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David Greenberg@jktadave·3d

@invest091 1) ISRG has the top robot for **soft-tissue** surgery, but MDT, JNJ, & others are doing their best to catch up there. 2) Orthopedic surgical robots are a different category (ISRG doesn't play), with significant competitors including ZBH, GMED, SYK... (I own ZBH, GMED shares.)

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Michael | Stock Spotlight 🎙️@invest091·3d

I’d add $ISRG who seems to have at least a near-monopoly status in the robotic-assisted surgery industry.

Long Equity@long_equity

🏰 Monopolies TSMC - advance semi fab ASML – EUV lithography Verisign - domain name registry Fair Isaac – credit scores Intuit – tax preparation software Thermo Fisher – ultra-high-end mass spec Illumina – high-throughput DNA sequencing CoStar – U.S. commercial real estate data Sherwin-Williams – architectural paint distribution (U.S.) ⚔️ Duopolies Visa / Mastercard – credit cards Airbus / Boeing – aircraft PepsiCo / Coca-Cola – drinks AMD / Nvidia – GPU chips Apple / Samsung – smartphones Cadence / Synopsys - chip design software IDEXX / Zoetis - veterinary diagnostics Novo Nordisk / Eli Lily - weight loss drugs ICE / Nasdaq - US stock exchanges 🧱 Oligopolies Alphabet / Microsoft / Amazon – cloud infrastructure Fortinet / Crowdstrike / Palo Alto - cybersecurity AT&T / Verizon / T-Mobile – U.S. telecom ExxonMobil / Chevron / BP / Shell – oil & gas majors JPMorgan / Bank of America / Citigroup / Wells Fargo – U.S. big banks Meta / Google / TikTok / Snap – social media platforms ADP / Paychex / Paycom / Workday – payroll and HR software Carrier / Trane / Johnson Controls / Comfort Systems – HVAC and building systems Moody’s / S&P / Fitch - credit rating Equifax / Experian / Transunion - credit data Air Products / Linde / Air Liquide - industrial gas Booking / Expedia / Airbnb - travel Heico / Transdigm - aircraft components What would you add?

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David Greenberg@jktadave·3d

@invest091 I have no position in ALGN but think the competitive situation (after key patents expired) is very complex, & it must be tough for someone not deeply experienced in orthodontics to feel confident re: his grasp of what's happening in this field. Good luck finalizing your episode.

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Michael | Stock Spotlight 🎙️@invest091·5d

Did not know that GP's have to complete an Invisalign training course before being able to provide the treatment to their patients. Talk about creating a sticky customer. $ALGN Episode 29 out in one week.

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David Greenberg@jktadave·5d

@SayNoToTrading This is how MKTX got on a watch list of mine, & I remain interested but wary, as I don't like buying shares before I'm confident in my understanding of a company's way of doing business, edge durability etc. Any thoughts? I'll watch the youtube video you linked to. Tks. (7/7)

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David Greenberg@jktadave·5d

@SayNoToTrading So, I thought: after my due diligence on BR, I'll dig into MKTX, learn what I can about that. But I found I don't have the expertise to really assess MKTX and its moat. Impressive profit margin, but will it last? Valuation looks high now, even after stock's decline. (6/x)

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Say No To Trading@SayNoToTrading·5d

If you think valuation compression on SaaS is brutal, have you looked at $MKTX and $TW lately? Financials from Gurufocus. Your outlook for them will vary, depending on where you think rates are going, and whether you prefer Treasuries and munis vs. corporate bond trading. I've said it before and I'll say it again... I could definitely see MarketAxess being acquired by $ICE or $CME, perhaps but less likely $NDAQ. A couple other suitors come to mind, too. Down here it would be accretive, even at large premium. Not only are multiples low, but consider the profitability metrics: $MKTX = 60% gross margin, 41% operation, and 36% net. $NDAQ is 44%, 30%, and 23% respectively. $ICE is closer to MarketAxess but still lags on all 3. Only $CME beats. I have this episode on my watchlist for gym tomorrow: youtu.be/8FkOUVCuYMY

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David Greenberg@jktadave·6d

On Wednesday, I sold the puts that I'd bought to protect my profits in Southern Copper ( $SCCO ). I decided not to roll the contracts out, as I don't have confidence that SCCO's stock will decline instead of growing into its currently-elevated valuations.

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David Greenberg@jktadave·6d

@utopia_escape I'm attaching my summary from when I sold. Some of my sale rationale may've been from feeling that my original thesis was too bullish, that I was let down. But also: I hate EQNR's recent wind expansion (w/ Orsted), and I consider bad capital allocation moves a massive red flag.

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EscapeFromUtopia@utopia_escape·6d

@jktadave Oh, I agree. I don't think they do either. My larger point is I'm not sure anyone does, which is a big problem. Barring a novel solution the answer appears to be a TTF/Rotterdam spike and industrial curtailments. So you see it playing out differently since you sold?

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EscapeFromUtopia@utopia_escape·18 May

"But Europe uses way less gas than they did during the Ukraine War crisis" While the IEA data only goes to 2023, I think it's fair to say that they still use 70% as much as they did during the last crisis. Less affected doesn't mean unaffected.

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David Greenberg@jktadave·6d

@utopia_escape I'm not saying the EU's in good shape -- but barring construction of new pipelines out of Norway, I don't see that EQNR (which I know you like) ramps up gas volumes for sales to W. Europe. And the Norwegian govt tax is so high on Norway-sourced oil & gas.

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EscapeFromUtopia@utopia_escape·6d

@jktadave All true. I was digging into total flows last week, but even in the most charitable interpretation, I can't fill the gap. EU inventories are just too low. In spite of EQNR maintenance we should be seeing 3%/week not 3%/mo in German storage. x.com/i/status/20552…

EscapeFromUtopia@utopia_escape

Well, it would seem the data at least partially repudates my thesis. I believed that Europe letting cargos slip to Asia to maintain an orderly market was causing flat fill rates. While LNG is a little below last year, the bigger driver seems to be Norwegian maintenance.

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David Greenberg@jktadave·6d

@stockholder30 @InvestSpecial Jack - I agree. I was researching CLBT & spoke with a friend who has a fairly senior job in law enforcement relating to digital forensics. He simplified the situation, saying CLBT is all about being able to hack into phones, and if they can't do that, the biz is unimpressive.

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Jack Smith@stockholder30·19 May

@InvestSpecial It's essentially a cat & mouse situation between $CLBT and Apple/Android. Bear case is that with Mythos being available to Apple + Google, they may finally be ahead of $CLBT and therefore make their devices unhackable (or extremely difficult to hack)

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Dalius - Special Sits@InvestSpecial·19 May

Not all SaaS is created equal. $CLBT just looks exceptional in this environment. ARR growing 20%+, net revenue retention at 115%, FCF margins expanding alongside overall margins. Debt-free. All of this at just 20x 2026 forward EBITDA, which almost entirely converts to FCF. So where's the moat and protection against AI disruption? Dominates digital forensics with a moat built on far more than software. Deep exploit library, specialized hardware, and constantly updated bootloader exploits across thousands of devices. Courtroom-tested, relationship-driven procurement, and decades of institutional trust with risk-averse law enforcement. Extremely difficult to displace. Yet the stock continues to go down.

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David Greenberg@jktadave·6d

@utopia_escape Some additional figures on supply here...

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David Greenberg@jktadave·6d

@utopia_escape I think the issue's not consumption, it's source of supply. See attached, from my write-up when I sold EQNR (in March, at $34+). When the Russia-Ukraine crisis hit, the EU turned to US-sourced LNG, not to Norwegian supply. (screenshots in blue boxes are of Google AI content.)

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David Greenberg@jktadave·6d

@TihoBrkan Interesting to ponder how to assess what's "obvious" to price-setters. In July 2022, I bought Southern Copper (SCCO) at < $50 & included the material pasted below in my write-up. Much public talk then of the ("obvious") need for more copper, but SCCO (now >$170) was languishing.

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Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan·6d

Investing is a second-level thinking domain. First-level thinking is where you ask, "Is this a good asset?" More than 90% of all of the content, research and focus is designated on this level of thinking. There are 100s of blogs and podcasts centred on answering that question with deep dives and 10,000-word research reports. If the game was all about buying great assets, then research analysts would be the richest people on Wall Street. However, they are merely compensated by a salary. Alpha, excess return or outsized equity gain is generated by asking the second-level thinking question: "What is everyone else assuming about this asset?" Additional or follow-up 2nd-level questions might be: • What is the consensus view? • What is already priced in? • What is the level of expectations embedded in the price? • Who is on the other side of the trade? Perhaps George Soros summed it up the best when he said, "Money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected."

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Keşfet

@invest091 @adamconover @SayNoToTrading @utopia_escape @stockholder30 @InvestSpecial @elonmusk @BarackObama