Jack Smith
767 posts
@stockholder30
L/S Investor/Trader “Consistently wrong, occasionally early” “Confidence borrowed, returns not” “Studying market inefficiencies, Contributing to them”
$PELI: Again no brainer imo geoexpro.com/will-greenland…
Rigetti, D-Wave, Infleqtion all get government $$$ IBM + Global Foundries $$$ too Others may surface later, but the above are the only names mentioned in the WSJ story. $RGTI $INFQ $QBTS $IBM $GFS $QUBT $GFS
@1bluanwhite1_m @GBNEWS @TalkTV @DailyMail @joshxhowie @JuliaHB1 @PatrickChristys @antisemitism @HeidiBachram Hello. This is not vandalism. Older headstones have been laid flat for safety reasons. Some are flat by design. Some have been laid down for repairs and restoration as part of work led by Glasgow Hebrew Burial Society. ^V
$SKLZ equity looks like a mispriced, cheap option. Assume the core operating business is worth ~0.5x forward revenue of ~$135mm, or ~$4.40/share on ~15.3mm shares. At ~$7.90, that implies the litigation stub is being valued at only ~$3.50/share, or ~$54mm. They just won a $420mm verdict with the possibility of up to ~$1bn including disgorgement. Even assuming no disgorgement and a 50% haircut to the compensatory award, that’s ~$210mm vs. ~$54mm implied. Market is discounting appeals, collectability, and time, but the asymmetry is obvious, let alone the operating tailwinds if @Papaya competitor conduct is restrained… 🤷♂️
We just published a short report on $CUE $368.5M in accumulated losses, ZERO products ever sold and a CEO compensation package that costs more than the company's entire forward contracted revenue. The Q4 2025 revenue spike was one licensing payment, that is already gone. A sharp correction is not a prediction but a structural inevitability. Click for our full report ⬇️ fugaziresearch.com/p/cue-reverse-…
I have been reviewing positions one by one all morning. I honestly have no clue why most stocks move the way they do. The only solid takeaway is, "Don't short anything that might be AI related." But, when I tried to think through why some companies randomly became "AI" stocks and not others, there's no pattern at all that I can tell. Even when a company is trying to pretend to be AI, often nothing happens. And when a company doesn't try to pretend to be AI or it's very minor, the thign has randomly gone up 100% since March. That said, some of them were kind of obvious. I guess it's that 10% of stocks where I could have avoided it, that's the minority I should always be focused on. The ones that are in my control.
$FLNC anyone have a strong view going into the print? Setup looks attractive if Q1 was a one-time blip; stock was $33 4 months ago. Not sure if you can underwrite a margin recovery given structural ASP pressure, Also wondering if guidance matters more than the headline GM here
flipped into a buy-write. Now long $SKLZ covered by May, June options with strikes in the 8-10 range. Premium is so high and there is very little left tail event risk between now and then. Note that the judge's order last Thursday directed the parties to mediate. Papaya will bring post-trial motions and they may get the judgment kicked, which would slash Skillz stock. But timing is key here: those motions will not be fully briefed according to the April 23 order until June 24 (a week after June opex). One way or the other I will be out of the trades before those motions are decided. This is a trade not an investment for me. Just taking advantage of huge options premium.
Good reminder from TDMInvest in Chat today- perfection isn't always needed for a thesis to work $ESPR $FBIO Sometimes, just an improvement in perception or prospects is more than enough
