microcap
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These past weeks has been some very interesting insider buys for shipping.
Large buys by $TORO CEO
$TEN CEO buys for the first time in many many many years.
$IMPP ramps up buybacks
$GLBS insider buys in March
AF continues her steady $NMM unit buys
$NAT a lot of buys earlier this year.
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Report: Jeffrey Epstein wrote a suicide note weeks before death, but it’s hidden away in a courthouse
notthebee.com/t2ec4
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@Hedgeye @HedgeyeIndstrls So,blame the guy who hike rates the most in rate of change terms, vs blaming the ppl that hiked the money supply 40%
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@Hedgeye @HedgeyeIndstrls Hmmm, I wonder if it’s the SPR. I guess it was meant to be strategic for other countries, and not ours.
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@WarrenPies @gubbmintcheese C) Scott Bessent is smashing the buy button extra hard these days.
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August Brent up ~20% in 10 days and equities still resilient.
Tells you two things:
1) De-escalation w/o a reopening is losing its power to cap oil (physical market biting)
2) Equities are seeing something pretty bullish on the "other side" of this.
Warren Pies@WarrenPies
New highs on August Brent. Long stocks + Long crude continues to make sense to me.
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@marcuslemonis @tZERO thats great. maybe now we can buyback some that we sold last year in the 6s. Looks like we can buy a lot in the 4s
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TZROP holders have approved the conversion amendment. Thank you to the 1,594 holders who voted, representing about 72% of outstanding shares!
This marks a key milestone in simplifying @tZERO’s capital structure and advancing alignment with our early investors.
More updates to follow as the conversion proceeds.
🔗 tzero.com/news/tzrop-hol…
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@dampedspring Why C-? I see the mini-tail, was it due the the direct acceptance?
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@RaoulGMI So the entity that will be in charge of taxing AI, and distributing it as UBI to the plebs is going to use crypto rails? That’s ridiculous. What industry outside of crypto uses block chain? It’s been 15 years and the only use case for crypto is fraud and selling pardons.
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Forget UBI. The answer is Universal Basic Equity… and it’s humanity’s pension plan for the post-AGI world...
The Economic Singularity is coming faster than people think and the default question is how humans make money in a world that doesn’t really need them anymore.
The default answer is UBI, which is transfer payments from a state, funded by taxing an AI economy that nation states can neither see nor keep up with.
It’s a 20th century answer to a 21st century problem and it’s broken before it even starts.
Agents are becoming the dominant user of the internet, not humans. Your AI is becoming your entire front end UX. The clicks economy is dying everywhere except where humans pay to feel something - clothing, travel, luxury, experiences, culture.
Agents run on crypto rails because nothing else works. The dollar doesn’t fractionalise below a cent, settlement isn’t instant, permissions are required, jurisdictions matter. Stablecoins handle the dollar leg and native tokens handle the rest.
The biggest users of DeFi in five years won’t be humans farming yield… it’ll be agents managing treasuries, swapping, earning and spending at machine speed.
Capital formation has already shown its new shape and it came from the most unexpected place. Memecoins. Everyone wrote them off as a casino but they were a prototype. Instant capital formation around the attention of an idea, raised by entities without legal personhood, settled in seconds. That is the template agent economies will use to fund themselves.
And it’s not just agents...
Robots will run on the same rails, with zk permissions issued from our wallets as the source of truth, because biometrics are far too flawed for that role
Open source code itself gets tokenized and finally captures the value it creates, instead of being monetized through bolted-on services and subscriptions.
Proof of humanhood becomes the trust layer that lets us release agents into the world without society collapsing under synthetic noise. Identity, authentication, verification, permissioning, all of it migrates onto the same substrate.
So when you zoom out, the L1s aren’t just settling agent transactions but settling the entire coordination layer of the new economy… agents, robots, humans, code, capital, identity and trust.
Every contract, every treasury, every permission, every stake. Open source finally captures the value it creates, at scale, for the first time, and truly vast value accrues to the coordination layer because everything routes through it.
Which brings us to the actual answer to the Economic Singularity…
Universal Basic Equity.
Anyone on earth with a phone and an internet connection can buy a stake in the substrate that the new economy runs on. No KYC walls, no accreditation rules, no jurisdiction, no employer, no state, no permission. The first homogenous, permissionless, globally fractionalisable claim on the productive infrastructure of the world. It's not a slogan but a structural fact about how blockchains actually work. This is their purpose.
Wealth comes from owning the substrate. Income comes from being human, because attention and experience remain the irreducible currency of culture, community and love.
Abundance of goods and services from AI handles the cost of living.
Taxing data center electricity use solves the tax issue.
Four legs of a stool that holds up the post-singularity human world.
So… just buy the fucking tokens.
Bitcoin if you want pure store of value, a basket of the major L1s if you want the coordination layer. 10% of your earnings, every month, for a decade. You'll be wealthy and protected from the changes to come.
Crypto is going to $100trn in the next 6 to 8 years and well beyond that after.
You can choose to invest in your own economic disruption, or get left behind by it.
And if you’re worried about timing the cycle…
…adjust your time horizon.
This is humanity’s pension plan.
It's all so absurdly fucking obvious...
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@marcuslemonis @sunnybrook1234 What’s going on with the O shares? I’ve invested in the pre-sale, but have not seen any updates on time of trading,
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Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc. and Bilt Announce Strategic Partnership to Power Connected “Everything Home” Experience - businesswire.com/news/home/2026… $bbby
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@KobeissiLetter @mintzmyer So I guess we’re emptying our SPR to sell to other countries. art of the Idiot
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For the first time in history, there are 60+ large crude oil tankers bound for the US.
US crude exports are up by +2.5 million barrels per day since the Iran War began.
US big oil will see its most profitable year on record in 2026.
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@profplum99 Maybe Iran planned for this and built extra storage? Truth is, they can deal with a lot of pain, we can’t deal a 3% drawdown.
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Thank you! Well thought out and explained.
Gary Brode@Gary_Brode
The Strait of Hormuz Reverse Uno Card When Raji Khabbaz and I were running Silver Arrow Investment Management, whenever we were trying to figure out why something happened, he was unsatisfied the explanation that people are sometimes stupid and institutions are often stupid. He correctly thought that people usually have a good reason (at least to them) for doing something even if it appears to make little sense to an outsider. More importantly, he thought that “sometimes people are stupid” was a lazy answer that was dismissive. As investors, it was our goal to understand what was happening, not to ignore it. Recently, I’ve written that many of President Trump’s critics are making the same error. When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that previously transported 20% of the world’s oil supply, the price of oil rose. Gas prices in the US have risen in response. Many screamed that this was an obvious move by the Iranian regime and insisted President Trump should have known it was something they’d do. How could he not know?! In 2002, the US Navy conducted war games they called the Millennium Challenge. One side represented Iran. The other represented the technologically superior US Navy and included an aircraft carrier, warships, and cruisers. The US Navy side had a substantial advantage in firepower. Retired Marine Corps Lieutenant General Paul K. Van Riper used asymmetric warfare tactics to wipe out the US side in one day. Had this been a real fight, the US would have lost 20,000 servicemen. The result was such an embarrassment that the Navy re-floated the sunk ships, changed the rules of engagement to ensure a US victory, and started the challenge again. These games were not a secret. They have been widely covered in the mainstream media and have been the subject of a New York Times documentary. Over the past two decades, I have seen the Millennium Challenge discussed in my daily financial news reading at least a dozen times. The event has its own Wikipedia page. Regardless of your opinion of President Trump, do you really believe that neither he, nor anyone in the White House, nor any of his military advisors, nor Secretary of War, Hegseth knew about this? I realize that many of you reading this have strong negative emotions regarding President Trump. I’m not asking you to like or respect him. I’m just suggesting that “he’s stupid and has no idea what he’s doing” is not good analysis. This is a point I’ve made in this space in the past. Early in the war, Iran closed the Strait which placed economic pressure on the rest of the world. Despite the fact that it was Iran mining the Strait and shooting at the ships that attempted to navigate it, many countries expressed anger at the US and Israel. This was the outcome Iran wanted. Then, the regime decided to allow friendly ships to pass if they paid a fee. The fees were about $1/barrel of oil, or about $2MM per large container vessel. (Many of these fees were paid in Bitcoin, something macro analyst, @peruvian_bull, explained in an excellent post within the past week.) This looked like worst-case scenario for the US. Iran succeeded in closing the Strait and causing economic problems all over the world, then found a way to profit from their own actions. Then, President Trump played his “reverse uno” card. He correctly realized that it wasn’t just the rest of the world that depended on free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and that it was Iran that had the most exposure. Iran is a big oil producer, and oil exports account for 80% of Iran’s exports, 60% of government revenue, and 25% of its GDP. It turns out that Iran has more economic exposure to this narrow waterway than anyone else. President Trump sent the US Navy to form a blockade. He closed the Strait himself ensuring no more $2MM/vessel charges and an inability for Iran to export oil. Iran is close to filling its own storage. Once its oil tanks are full, the regime has two choices, either capitulate and come to an agreement with the US, or to stop producing from its own wells. The problem with the second choice is that it’s difficult to reverse. Stopping production on an active oil well tends to damage it and it’s hard to re-start later. Iran now has a limited amount of time to find a course of action before 25% of its GDP becomes permanently(ish) impaired. While no one in the US likes paying more for gas, prices were much higher just four years ago in 2022 and around $4/gallon in 2008, 2011, and 2012 when $4 had more purchasing power than it does now. The US is a net energy exporter with an economy that has survived higher prices in the past. Foreign ships are turning away from the Strait of Hormuz and sailing to Texas and other southern US ports to fill up at premium prices. I’m not suggesting that this is great for the US; but rather, that the US is well-suited to manage the situation while Iran is about to be faced with a massive long-term problem. Finally, Iran maintains control of the country using extensive human infrastructure. There are police everywhere monitoring protests, internet usage, the attire of citizens, and the hair of Iranian women. That level of control is expensive and the government just lost 60% of its revenue. I’m wondering how long they’ll keep doing their jobs without paychecks. I don’t know how this conflict will end. What I do know is that President Trump and the US Navy have turned Iran’s biggest strategic strength into a giant weakness. Sometimes people do stupid things. And sometimes, we just aren’t seeing the reasoning behind those actions. Last week, one of DKI’s interns wrote, ”The bottom line is that (financial analysis) can tell you what the market’s pricing in, but it’s your job to figure out why”. Right now, the mullahs are facing a difficult decision. It will be interesting to see what comes next.
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@dampedspring Why do we believe them when they say they are buying bills?
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The Treasury bought back 15BN in bills, notes, and bonds maturing in less than a year. In order to fund that purchase they issued or will issue 15BN of Tbills of similar but different maturity to better align the timing of tax and spending flows with maturities. It's called cash management and has zero impact on anything at all relevant to markets whatsoever.
Barchart@Barchart
U.S. Treasury projected to buy back $15 Billion of their own debt this week, equaling the largest Treasury buyback in history 🚨🚨
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@christankerfund Some of us veteran traders like to call it, consolidating gains for the next move higher
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Basically lowering PTs because the stock prices are stagnating lol
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While Fearnleys, Arctic, Pareto upgraded tankers this week, Evercore just cut them.
$FRO to a $38 PT
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@JosephRamelli and there’s no way nutlick wasn’t instructed to share profits with trump
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@christankerfund The 1.2 b was the interest on the 400m they sent us in 1979 for fighter jets, that we didn’t deliver due to the Shah getting kicked out.
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Says OBAMA paid hundreds of billions to Iran loaded in 757s….
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@megynkelly @SECGov It's trump, we all know and that's why it will not be investigated.
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This must be investigated @SECGov
Josh Rogin@joshrogin
“Somebody shorted the oil markets today by hundreds of millions of dollars exactly 20 minutes before Trump made his announcement that everything was going to be great. And if you see that once, it could be a coincidence. But that’s happened at least three times, if not more, since the war began. That’s a pattern.” “And what that suggests is that there’s rampant corruption and insider self-dealing going on with the president’s up and down predictions of what’s going to happen tomorrow in the negotiations and in the markets. And I’m sure that that’s being investigated. We can’t prove it, but it seems like the corruption that we’re seeing in our government, maybe not the President, but people who are in the know and the markets, is having a priority over the actual negotiations to end the war. And that’s a crazy thing that our system has never seen before.”
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@INArteCarloDoss I also hear that they will pay for building the wall.
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Everything for nothing… sure..
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
TRUMP SAYS IRAN AGREED TO SUSPEND ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM INDEFINITELY, AND WILL NOT RECEIVE ANY FROZEN FUNDS FROM THE US
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@gamesblazer06 Translation: if it is a problem, we will just issue more TBills to the FED and buy private Credit. But it won’t be QE.
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Are we all sure about this?
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
BESSENT: TREASURY SEES NO SYSTEMIC RISK IN PRIVATE CREDIT
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