@grainsmanesfarm I’m not saying it isn’t unfortunate. What I’m saying is operating note renewal for most guys is done a month before the war kicked off and pricing got pulled. Outside of some extreme situations MOST guys knew where they were at financially and had a chance to book fert/sell grain
@NicoAIQ I've spent a lot of time working with both Seth and Lance to understand how numbers are put together and honestly defending the work of the USDA. I can't defend it anymore, it's garbage and getting worse
Tuesday, January 13, 2026. Can’t Defend the USDA After this One. China and Russia's Numbers are Useless. Price Action the Next 72 Hours Will be Critical.
There were no silver linings in Monday’s report. It was bearish across the board. It’s always popular to pile on USDA when they’re inconsistent, but the reality is simpler: over the last 12 months, they’ve been consistently poor.
We were positioned for a slightly bearish report—and likely bearish price action—given sentiment was leaning long. We did not expect this type of shock at all.
The wheat–corn spread corrected back into its prior range, and we will remain long that structurally. We are exiting our short vega, as flagged last night. Realized grain volatility continues to print 3–7 vols below pre-report implied levels.
Bean oil remains rangebound, trading nearly 10 vols above soybeans. A key driver is cash crush margins slipping below $0.90. Crushers aren’t at the point of throttling yet, but they’re getting close. We should pay attention to how difficult it becomes to source cash.
@johnsonacres I do farm it like my own but it’s still her land and her long term investment. So some good communication about what has happened, what to expect next and just some general chit chat is great for sustaining a good long term relationship.
Writing a letter to a land lord and really trying to drive home the “manage expectations” point about wheat. Planted her farm to corn for the first time probably ever this summer, it made pretty good money in the end.
What’s coming in 2026 will be significantly different.
@LowBoomLowDrift@Mullin_95 I’m ok with getting a good deal on a used big drill. The original owner is ok with the new price. Don’t see the issue. Dealer just has to work the figures correctly
Used air seeders and drills. What width and tank size is perfect? What has the best resale value? What does the 2nd owner want ? What size and configuration will give the first owner the best resale value?
@Mullin_95@McblainFarms@MacDon I have same issue on a 2023 FD250. They are complex headers. Especially for X9. Look at the adapter for Claas. Way fewer coils and valves. Toss up between deere and Macdon. If u roll land deere has performance edge. If not Macdon safer bet.
🚨HELP/R/T appreciated🚨 Struggled for 2 yrs with a @MacDon FD250 to get it to cut properly. Going across field right side randomly goes up and leave 3-4” of beans. Dealer has replaced bearing/bushings in pivots, recalibrated head dozens of times, tried every setting we can….1/2
@SE_ResearchFarm@Denny2point0 Honestly nothing. But I agree all my farm would benefit from being done seeding may 15. Drill cost be horrendous but may net positive
Got the rest of the wheat wrapped up with some high pedigreed Westking. Definitely a top yielding variety ready to hit the market next year @SeCan@triplesseeds