John Stanham

@biancoresearch Rate hikes will not bring the price of oil down. A more indirect tool and with longer lags provided he has the guts to follow through, is shrinking the balance sheet.

Dear Kevin Warsh Later today, you will be sworn in as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Congratulations. You got the job by convincing the President you share his vision that the Fed needs to cut rates. The problem is that today, on your first day as Chairman, the market is pricing in a 64% probability that rates will HIKE before the end of the year. Good luck!

@FrankLuntz Not good indeed. However, the positive side is that it is credit cards and autoloans, not mortgages.

Americans have hit decade-high delinquency rates on credit card, student loan, and car loan debt. 💸

@TheStudyofWar So UK should ba able to collect tolls for Gibraltar and South Africa for Cape of Good Hope?

NEW: Iran’s efforts to reconstitute its military capabilities during the ceasefire period are consistent with the behavior of any military organization when given time and space to reconstitute itself after combat. These tactical and operational reconstitution efforts, however, do not necessarily offset the strategic effects achieved during the war against ballistic missile production facilities. Other Key Takeaways: Iran’s growing emphasis on the Strait of Hormuz reflects a broader, emerging consensus around the idea that the Strait of Hormuz must be central to Iranian strategy and deterrence in the future. Iranian strategy before October 7 and the events thereafter, including the Spring 2026 war, revolved primarily around ballistic missiles, drones, and its proxy and partner network as deterrents and force projection tools. Naval assets around the Strait of Hormuz featured only secondarily and as part of this wider three-pillar system. Some regime officials and outlets have floated new ideas about how the regime could use the Strait of Hormuz to discourage behavior that the regime believes is contrary to its interests. Many of these proposals, if accepted and operationalized, would also provide Iran with new revenues that would enable it to reconstitute its military forces. Some regional states appear to be complying with Iranian-imposed transit procedures in the Strait of Hormuz, which normalizes Iran’s claim that vessels need Iranian permission to transit the waterway. Five unspecified sources told Reuters on May 12 that Iraq and Pakistan reached agreements with Iran to move crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) through the strait.

@charliebilello The consumer unless companies can prove they absorbed the cost.

The US collected a record $327 billion in customs duties over the last 12 months, which was over 3x higher than what was collected in the 12 months prior ($94 billion). Who is bearing the cost of this additional tax? Mostly US consumers via higher prices.

@robin_j_brooks Great charts. Plenty of factors at play. Time will tell where the waters will settle. We only know it is higher.

When short-term interest rates fluctuate, they usually take long yields with them. That isn't happening at the moment. 2-year yield is up everywhere (blue), but 10- (orange) and 30-year (red) yields have barely risen. Lots of room for long yields to rise. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/a-world-of-d…

@Jkylebass @HuXijin_GT @globaltimesnews Unwanted for those who believe in self-determination.

The United States 🇺🇸 opposes the unwanted ‘unification’ of Taiwan by China. That’s our official statement. #China @HuXijin_GT @globaltimesnews

@marklevinshow Deeply disturbing as catholic by birth.

Why did the Pope do this?  The Iranian Nazi regime slaughters, rapes, and tortures and seeks to extinguish all other faiths.

@WSJ 54-45 is nothing to be proud of. No matter what, odds are heavily stacked against him.

Breaking: Kevin Warsh has been confirmed as Fed chair. The 54-45 vote is the narrowest margin since Senate approvals became a requirement in 1977. on.wsj.com/3R4Nu5D

@MOSSADil TDS?

DOES THE VATICAN HAVE SOME EXPLAINING TO DO? Vatican honors were awarded to an IRANIAN REGIME CLERIC, with documents bearing the name of Pope Leo XIV and praising him with an official papal medal. At the same time, Iran’s regime backs terror proxies, persecutes dissidents, threatens Israel, and exports radical influence across the Middle East.

@DVKirichenko A collosall tidal change will happen when Ukraine sinks all ships between Iran and Russia.

1/ Russia’s war against Ukraine began in Crimea in 2014. Now the peninsula is becoming one of the main fronts in Ukraine’s drone war. Kyiv is forcing Moscow into a painful choice: Defend Crimea. Or defend Russia itself. Increasingly, it cannot fully do both. 🧵

@bindersab It is a legitimate concern.

Kevin Warsh confirmed Fed chair on most partisan confirmation vote ever (since Congress mandated separate vote to confirm chair). Dems likely deemed Warsh too close to Trump-- unwilling to distance himself from POTUS before the Senate even on who won the 2020 election.

@NickTimiraos Common sense.

The House Financial Services Committee is taking up a bill that would amend the Federal Reserve Act to eliminate the dual mandate and focus only on price stability. It's worth asking if the Fed would have cut interest rates last year if this had been the law.

@JayinKyiv Need to get rid of the Kerch bridge once and for all

Russians complaining that Ukraine's new longer distance capabilities for small drones has enabled them to approach fire control over the primary land route from russia to Crimea.

@FrankLuntz Probably true. Case in point: he does not believe in Federalism.

If we did this, the President of the United States would currently be Donald Trump.

@ZelenskyyUa Give a hand to the US by taking care of those in the Caspian Sea.

Our warriors continue to apply sanctions against Russia’s shadow oil fleet – two such vessels were struck in the waters at the entrance to the port of Novorossiysk. These tankers had been actively used to transport oil – not anymore. I am grateful to Chief of the General Staff Andrii Hnatov for leading the operation, to the counterintelligence officers of the Security Service of Ukraine, and to our Navy for consistently delivering effective results. Ukraine’s long-range capabilities will continue to be developed comprehensively – at sea, in the air, and on land. Glory to Ukraine!

@Osint613 They obviously do not want a deal.

Iranian report: Iran submitted a 14-point counterproposal to the U.S. 9-point offer through Pakistani mediation, per Tasnim. The U.S. proposed a 2-month ceasefire. Iran wants all issues resolved in 30 days. Demands include U.S. military withdrawal from Iran's periphery, lifting the naval blockade, unfreezing assets, compensation, sanctions relief, and an end to fighting on all fronts including Lebanon. Iran says it awaits a formal U.S. response.

@SullyCNBC Why not from Texas?

Yikes. And prob going higher I’m sorry Arizona gets much of its gasoline from California .. which is having to bring in huge shiploads of oil and fuel to avoid shortages bc so many refineries shut down last few years. Only “fix” is new pipelines from Houston or St Louis area but those are years off if they happen at all

@greg_ip Excellent article.

Retiring Fed chairs usually give up their governor's seat. It's one of the norms that contributes to the Fed’s collegial, nonpartisan culture. But Trump’s norm-breaking requires Jay Powell to break a few norms himself. Why he's right to stay on the Fed: wsj.com/economy/centra…

@Osint613 Partly accurate. The World was used to the US footing all the bills.

Trump: Biden gave 350 billion dollars for Ukraine, which was insane. It’s one of the reasons why the war went on.

@growingmiami Maybe zohran is learning what happens when the time comes to govern and you are still throwing some things into the wind. In Forest talk , stupid is what stupid does.

🚨 BREAKING: Merely days after Griffin's spat with NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Ken Griffin announces they are scrapping the planned hotel portion of their new Miami HQ and are replacing it with even more office space. The tower was previously planned to feature a luxury hotel across 17 floors (42 to 58). That space will now be replaced by office, substantially expanding the total amount of office space in the tower. Whether this was pre planned or a consequence of the Mamdani video is unclear, but the timing is extremely interesting!