Jonathan
58 posts


I found levels that act as a magnet for price and have historically shown an 80-90% hit rate in my backtesting.
Here is the exact logic: 👇
We track previous Daily and 4-Hour ranges and divide them into quarters. We filter the noise by aligning with the true Daily Trend - the Midnight Open.
📈 The Premium Long: If a new session opens deep in the top 25% of the previous range AND is trading above the Midnight Open, the indicator fires a neon triangle. Buyers are showing control, making the previous Range High a high-probability target based on historical data.
📉 The Premium Short: If it opens in the bottom 25% AND below the Midnight Open, sellers are showing control. It targets the previous Range Low.
Why does this work? Because opening that close to the edge with the daily trend behind it indicates extreme momentum. Historically, price tends to sweep that nearest liquidity before a major reversal.
I built a custom TradingView indicator that maps all of this out automatically.
It draws the zones, projects a dynamic target line, and features a built-in statistical table that tracks every historical setup on your chart. You don't have to guess- you can literally see the exact Historical Success Rate on your screen to prove the math.
You can backtest this on ANY asset. I’m making this tool completely free so you can run the data and find your own edge.
🔗 Grab the free script at the link in my bio. Find your best pairs and stop leaving your targets up to chance. 📊💸
(Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This tool and thread are for educational purposes only and are not financial advice.)

English

Most of you know the Initial Balance indicator I built. I found a massive edge trading it, so I fully automated the logic.
The historical consistency is insane. 📊 Almost 2 years of data 📊 388 trades, 80%+ win rate 📊 Consistent across multiple timeframes & assets
People always say, "TradingView backtests aren't enough." Fair. So I ported the entire system over to NinjaTrader. Ran the same tests, verified the exact same consistent edge.
Forward testing? I’ve been running this for almost 3 months on prop firms and have secured 6+ payouts with it.
I originally wanted to gatekeep this. A lot of you have been asking for a Whop release, so I’ll drop it IF there’s enough demand.
But here’s the deal: I am NOT releasing this as a blind plug-and-play bot. I’m releasing it as an optimization tool. The core IB logic is cracked and built-in, making it incredibly easy to find what works. You will use it to test your own assets, find the settings that fit your style, and then optionally automate your execution.
I will be pricing this at a premium and strictly limiting the number of users to protect the edge.
Comment down below if you want me to release this. 👇

English

@SSJTRADES Thanks for the strategy.
1) Have you done a algo backtest for this?
2) Does it matter where the FVG is located in the range - if the FVG is above or below the 50% for a long, for example? Is there a minimum size of FVG? Thanks
English

@KirmiziKoseMMA A teacher shouldn't be treating students who behave badly in that way. Rather than calling out the dirt in them, call out the gold instead. Say to your students, "I believe you can do better than this. You're better than this." Call out that gold as everyone has something good.
English

❤️ Sean Strickland’ten duygusal açıklama: ‘’Tüm hayatım boyunca, okulda olsun, hep bir bok parçası olduğum söylendi. Bana 'Sen bir eziksin, sen kötüsün, hiçbir şeye değmezsin' denildi. Daha önce de dediğim gibi, ortaokuldayken öğretmenlerimden biri bana 'Senin gibiler için hapishaneler inşa ediyorlar' demişti.
Yani tüm hayatım boyunca 'Kötü çocuksun, hak etmiyorsun' muamelesi gördüm. Sonra UFC sayesinde insanlar 'Hayır Sean, sen iyi birisin, seni seviyoruz, seni destekliyoruz' demeye başladı.
Bu yüzden hayranlarıma karşı, çoğu dövüşçünün hissettiğinden çok daha farklı bir sevgi beslediğimi düşünüyorum. Çünkü çoğu dövüşçünün buna ihtiyacı yoktu. Mesela Chimaev, o bunu hiç yaşamadı. Herkes Chimaev'i seviyor, farklı bir ülkeye gittiğinde bile insanlar onu seviyor. Benim tüm hayatım, UFC hayranları beni ayağa kaldırana kadar bir nevi bok gibiydi.
Sanırım bu yüzden sıradan adamlara, çöp kamyonu şoförüne, beton işçisine falan çok daha fazla minnet duyuyorum. Kim olduğumu onlara borçluyum.’’

Türkçe

@JeredKing @iamdisplacement @edgeful Edgeful's stats are just that - statistics. It's based on facts and what happened in the past. But you still need an entry model, TP and SL. Stats are not a strategy.
So yes, all the stats with 75% or 80%+, that isn't the win rate percentage, nor is it a strategy.
English

Negative... Edgfuls stats are a joke
Test it for yourself and I guarantee it's no where near 80%
I used to think the same thing
Then you take 5 losses in a row
Leaving you wondering wtf
So you try another strategy with an 80% win rate and get wrecked again with 5 losses in a row
You investigate and realize ... Shit
The probability of experiencing five consecutive losses with an 80% win rate is 0.0032% or 1/3,125 times
So either you've just had the most unlikely statistical experience ever ... Like being hit with lighting 2x in the same exact moment or Edgful is on some bullllshhiiittt
They on some bullllshhiiittt.. 💯 guarantee it
GIF
English

@ProbableChris @NQStats You've said somewhere something to the effect of range is the fuel in the tank and STDV is the destination.
English

@jonathanjon79 @NQStats What are you referring to when you say “ranges”?
English

youtu.be/pxs2MuqvH3w
New vid for the new site on "Price Distributions". "Price Distributions" is a statistical framework I use to tell what regime we are in, what my bias should be (trend vs mean reversion), and when to time my entries. It uses percent net change from open to close of various time windows to calculate samples and derive data from said sample.

YouTube
English

Fair value gaps are probably one of the most popular concepts out there. It's understandable too. They're easy to draw and easy to use.
I do see a lot of people ask the same thing: How do I know what gap to use? The answer? You don't. And I mean it. If you truly believe you found the right gap to use in every swing. I wouldn't even have to talk to you, you'd be rich and away from socials.
There is a way to be as accurate as possible however. More accurate than the big man himself. Now, most won't like this next part. The secret is: Volume & order flow.
Drop any negative thoughts at this point. Remember, what is a fair value gap again? Ah! Aggressive price movements that leave *gaps* in the market. Also known as unfilled orders. See where I'm going? You don't know if your fair value gap filled any orders on a regular chart. This is where a true volume profile comes in. Not the tick data ones, actual order flow profiles.
These profiles actually show you where executions happened and how big the size was. Now look at the image I shared. Notice anything strange? A simple volume profile filtered out all the bad gaps. And I'm not sharing this to start a war. I'm sharing this to help. This right here shows you the exact point where no orders were filled.
Now what if there was a success rate statistic for this? Maybe for next time. It gets better!

English

@Mc5calpAfee @edgeful Agree. I wouldn't say they'll lose their audience but everybody thinks in terms of ET. I don't even live in America and I always think in ET.
English

@edgeful Feedback for your article you already lost most of your audience when you put the time in as UTC plus one. Just put eastern time that everyone uses. Literally read that and couldn’t be bothered to look up how UTC plus one correlates to eastern time personally, just being honest
English

@B0ST0NSHAMROCK @AaronBaner So just a 1m candle close back into the range - not 5m? Thanks.
English

@AaronBaner yes a candle close back into the range is how i use it - there is an option to trigger with a wick back into the range - performs better with close as far as i know across most MH's
English

@masked_stat First time I've heard of Daily Profile by Amtrades. Since I know you're into stats too, has the Daily Profile idea been backtested with stats? Interested to know your experience with it and whether the concept is testable. Thanks
English

Indicators
TSR CR Model
tradingview.com/script/mbvTgkM…
DTR Time Based Range — CR Model
tradingview.com/script/yqkZF1e…
Daily Profile [Amtrades]
tradingview.com/script/CEaTzKP…
JTrader EMA Zone Inversion
tradingview.com/script/QWRUTog…
English

@andre_btcl Is there a lot of application to this statistic? Even if we know that the day will close green if the first candle is green with a strong body, closing green is just closing above 9:30 open. So how useful is that if we're already far above that. Thoughts?
English

@Eddie_Fibonacci @andre_btcl @NQStats Eddie, did you manage to get back regarding this? I also had similar results to @andre_btcl - around 60%, not 80%. Not sure who is right!
English

@andre_btcl @NQStats Nice you also did a test on this concept! Pretty strange we get different results, I’ll review my code again and let you know. Did you use m1 as LTF?
English

NQ Statistical edge. For the PM lovers.
NY AM : 8am - 12am
NY Lunch : 12am - 1pm
NY PM : 1pm - 4pm
If the PM session sweeps the lunch high or low, there is an over 80% (🤯) probability price returns to the EQ of the lunch range. @NQStats

English

@Focus786618 Is there a way to contact you? I have some questions. Through your x DM?
English

Everyone talks about high probability setups…
But another edge?
Understanding when probability drops.
Asia session = lower volatility.
That’s EXACTLY why my Negative R mean reversion model works so well there.
A lot of this came from digging into @Edgeful data organically… not looking for confirmation, just patterns.
It’s not just about chasing edge…
It’s about knowing when conditions favor inefficiency. ⚡️


English

@ajtradinglucid @Jacobtradesz I think this is a bit of an overreacction by Lucid. Did Jacob mean to deceive people? Didn't he say he got around 50k of lifetime payouts? By all means, call out those who lie, but Jacob supports Lucid so why would he intentionally want to portray Lucid in a bad light??
English

Hey @Jacobtradesz welcome to the club of lying on social media when I have receipts.
~40 lifetime payouts and ~ $70k paid out.
Enjoy live trading.




English

@PatternProfits Hey Ben, how do you get these zones and how do you use them - for odte options or for futures trading?
If for futures trading, how would you use them - especially for the setups you take (ORB, Magic hours, IB, etc.) Thanks.
English

@PatternProfits Thanks for the chart. Helps people to learn. Some questions for you:
1) What are the yellow bodied candles?
2) What's the reason for your great interest in the 1st Presented FVG after 10am - and why you don't place much importance normally on the 1st presented FVG after 9:30? Ta!
English

$NQ IB markup from this morning. Confluences everywhere if taken in context with $ES, as I prefer to do. I don't usually highlight the 1st presented FVG after 9:30am, but it played an important role this morning.
tradingview.com/x/WXaHOIPo/
English












