Nuevo programa de La Batalla Cultural 31 03 2026 🎙️
INVERTIR en tiempos de GUERRA | Con Juan Granell, experto en bolsa. 💰💵💴💶📈
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Se viene programòn de LBC hoy a las 14h en Radio Libertad 107.0 FM | INVERTIR en tiempos de GUERRA. Con Juan Granell, experto en bolsa. No os lo perdáis!! 💵💴💶💰📈
@ReneSellmann BRK's worth >1T$ (>0,4T$ subsidiaries, 0,3T$ stocks, >0,3T$ cash): the subsidiaries are forever holdings, the stocks concentrated in decades-long holdings (Apple, Amex, Coke..) and the cash comes from float, retained earnings and Apple sales. WB is buy&hold 👑 @guillemaralm
"Our favorite holding period is forever." - Warren Buffett.
The reality? From 1980-2006:
⏱️ Median holding period: 1 year
📈 30% of stocks sold within 6 months
📊 Only 20% held for more than 2 years
Buffett isn't just a "buy and hold" investor; he’s a ruthless recycler of capital. See for yourself👇
@TheTranscript_ "Buying back stock of a financial company greatly in excess of 2x tangible book is a mistake. We aren't going to do it" Jamie Dimon 2024... and here they are, repurchasing 32b$ in 2025 (>50% of net income) at that "value destructive" valuations.... @guillemaralm@jgranellh
$JPM CFO: Returning capital below 17% ROTCE can be value destructive versus 2.8–3.0x TBV buybacks.
“It is simply value destructive to return capital to shareholders just because the opportunity does not return 17% when the alternative is buying back stock at whatever, 2.8x or 3x tangible book.”
Invertir bien no es cuestión de suerte, sino de método.
📘 En «La bolsa a tu alcance», @juangra97 demuestra que cualquiera puede rentabilizar sus ahorros sin asumir riesgos innecesarios.
Dos caminos, un mismo objetivo: hacer crecer tu dinero con sentido común.
@chamath Easy to explain: Meta was trading way below 10x PE (considering sustainable earnings, not just reported figures).... then you have growth + normalization of PE and huge and deserved outperformance @guillemaralm@jgranellh
“Microsoft has been the worst-performing stock of the hyperscalers since the November 30, 2022 launch of ChatGPT and has significantly underperformed the Nasdaq during that period”
Looking at this chart, you’d have thought that Meta and not Microsoft was the one that owned 25% of OpenAI and ran the cloud for them.
Alphabet looking to issue a 100-year bond. Last time this happened was Motorola in 1997, which was the last year Motorola was considered a big deal.
At the start of 1997, Motorola was a top 25 market cap and top 25 revenue corporation in America. Never again.
The Motorola corporate brand in 1997 was ranked #1 in the US, ahead of Microsoft.
In 1998, Nokia overtook Motorola in cell phones, and after the iPhone it fell out of the consumer eye.
Today Motorola is the 232nd largest market cap with only $11 billion in sales.
@Ross__Hendricks They are not going to burn any cash in 2026... simple math: If cash from ops grows 20% to 200b$ (as it seems), they'll produce around 10/20b$ FCF... @guillemaralm@jgranellh
The trillion dollar question for $GOOG shares is: what multiple will investors assign to a business that will burn through $50 billion in cash this year?
And this isn't a one-off capex binge... this is a permanent shift in the business model from a capital light compounder to something more like a railroad
@chamath Well... the "modern BRK" without BRK's free (even better than that) source of funding, without BRK's diverse and resistent cash flows, without BRK's respect of the minority shareholder... a lot of "withouts" @jgranellh@guillemaralm
A merger between SpaceX and Tesla would instantly create the Berkshire Hathaway of the modern century.
The capital raising and operational efficiencies if both were together are obvious.
If this were to happen, it would also bring us one step closer to having one equity instrument for all things Elon which many would want to buy.
@DiscountedTr Well.. you forgot that the Castle Point return was above the almost 0% cagr of the S&P500. His tenure at GEICO ended with record margins, a return to growth and WB's applause. Plus maybe he was the seed of the Apple homerun. @guillemaralm
> lifetime of mediocrity that gets rewarded by failing upwards at every turn
> hyped as Buffett's handpicked successor
> joins Berkshire in 2011 after running a subscale, long-short financial/bank focused hedge fund (single-digit CAGR)
> somehow gets handed billions at BRK despite mediocre performance, underperforms S&P for over a decade
> then gets put in charge of GEICO, promptly turns it into a dumpster fire
> employee morale in the shitter, subordinates call him an arrogant + incompetent prick who micromanages into oblivion while Progressive runs laps around him
> knows nothing about tech, was a financials investor
> so he spearheads $SNOW buys at the IPO top, rides the hype, then forced to dump the the whole stake as it craters
> struts around on podcasts acting like a mini-Munger, claims to read for 12 hours a day on top of managing GEICO, multibillion-dollar portfolios at Berkshire, and his own PE/VC investments
> claims to conduct diligence on 300+ private investment deals annually (not sure what he considers diligence...)
> goes on wild goose chases (healthcare, venture investing in India and Brazil)
> fails upwards once again, has a cushy gig at JPM lined up after he departs Berkshire
In 1999, Google killed Yahoo search.
In 2007, iPhone killed Nokia.
In 2008, Facebook killed MySpace.
In 2010, Streaming killed CDs & DVDs.
In 2012, Netflix killed Blockbuster.
In 2014, Uber killed taxi monopolies.
In 2016, Instagram killed point-and-shoot cameras.
In 2020, Zoom killed office-only work.
In 2026, Macrohard will kill microsoft
What do you think Bitcoin will kill?
@DividendTalks When a stock trades at 70x PE or so and people say "is getting sold off like growth is dead" you must be fearful @guillemaralm@jgranellh
$AVGO is getting sold off like growth is dead.
This is a company tied to AI, networking, data centers, and infrastructure - not hype.
Yet it’s trading at a PEG of ~0.9.
That’s usually where the market prices mistakes… or opportunities.
Which one do you think this is?
@DividendDynasty Before the 2022 colapse, the same was true... so be prepared for a big drop 😅 if you can stand the pressure you'll win like @guillemaralm
$META is pretty much flat on the year now and trading at a discount to the S&P 500 currently.
At a fwd PE of just 21x I think the market is once again undervaluing the earnings power the company has.
Currently one of my top buys right now.
Are you adding? 🤔
🚨 MASSIVE INSIDER BUYING 🚨
Founder Bernard Arnault was scooping up shares of $LVMHF (Louis Vuitton) while it was at its 52 week low.
Here's why it is interesting 👇
@orrdavid It seems that some good value investors lost the investment discipline and then (when they suffer the inevitable multiple compression) they only demonstrate that they can't recognize their mistakes - definitely not like Buffett @guillemaralm
Yet another "quality" fund blaming factors for poor performance.
This framing is dishonest if they didn't also mention the years of multiple expansion that helped them through 2021.
The quality factor was a gigantic bubble, and they stayed long at any valuation. That doesn't make them an investor, it just makes them an ideologue.
Warren Buffett retires today, most likely in his mind at the closing bell, just minutes from now.
Congratulations to the greatest investor the world will ever know. The returns speak for themselves - Berkshire earned 6,118,651% or 19.9% annually over his 60 years running the company. The S&P 500 returned 46,491%, or 10.4%. Berkshire’s shares could decline by 99.2% and still have outperformed the market. The record is even greater when including the partnerships he ran through 1969.
However, it is not the returns but the way Warren did it that matters most; with integrity and morality - and with humility and humor. He didn’t have to teach, but he did. On behalf of so many of us, thank you, sir.