@ACapitalLP It’s a tough business for traded markets. Goldman did an ipo for their Petershill business and the stock struggled a lot before being taken private again.
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kbareman
426 posts
kbareman
@kbareman
I promise to not tweet about things on CNBC that annoy me.
Chicago Katılım Şubat 2009
214 Takip Edilen142 Takipçiler
What’s the residual value of the $OWL GP Fund Stakes business (Dyal Capital) worth on a per share basis? Thx
junkbondinvestor@junkbondinvest
No major private credit manager has ever reported redemption requests like this. Blue Owl OTIC: 40.7% requested, gated at 5% Blue Owl OCIC: 21.9% requested, gated at 5% $OTF $OBDC $OWL
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@SpartanHoops_DK Assuming Carr, Scott, Teng, Ogo, and Fears return, curious where the minutes come from.
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Next up on the board…
BIG FOY
Big Ten Champion
National Champion
😤
Jasiah Jervis@Jasiah_Jervis
Created History 🏆🏆🏆🏆 #agtg
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@lewdennen @Gr33n247 But isn’t the point that Illinois is a bigger ‘reward’ for Duke (the 1 seed) vs giving them MSU?
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@Gr33n247 I hear ya. But, have to admit, being 2 in the East vs. Duke was a big advantage to State in terms of crowd, time zone, proximity. More of a neutral floor.
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Feels pretty locked in that these are the regions as of now..
Duke/Illinois
Michigan/Houston
Arizona/Michigan State (BYU or St Mary’s 7 seed/NC State 10 seed u know this)
Florida/UConn
I dont see it changing either unless one of the 2 seeds lose their first Conf tourney game
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@SpartanHoops_DK Other open question is Ngongba. They say day-to-day but they always say that. Really a wild card.
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Woof. Definitely gonna hurt Dukes title hopes. Little boozer has been basically a game manager all season. Curious to see the overall impact
Brendan Marks@BrendanRMarks
Jon Scheyer says that Caleb Foster suffered a fracture in his right foot during Saturday's game and is out for a "foreseeable" time. Pat Ngongba is out for the ACC tournament with some lingering foot soreness, but should be good for the NCAA Tournament.
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@kieranwgoodwin A lot of end buyers knew they could get gates, just accepted the risk to pursue the higher returns
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PC ➡️ Private Wealth Channel
Gating was fully disclosed but my opinion is that these funds were aggressively marketed to HNW and that a large % of end buyers didn’t understand the reality of gating and its knock on effects.
GIF
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@deccalanecap @kieranwgoodwin If it’s direct lending in a closed-end fund, a lot of them trade in the M90s.
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@kieranwgoodwin Kieran - what is a typical discount range for a secondary transaction in private credit? Thank you.
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Kudos to $NMFC for making a TRUE 3rd party sale to Coller Capital.
I would love to know the cover since COLLER HAS BEEN THE ONLY BUYER OF CV in PC. Pin cushion??
But price wasn't 94% of PAR rather FAIR VALUE as of 12/31.
Analyst friend of mine calc'd price was around 85
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@gfgeorge3 @zerohedge This. Boaz is agreeing with BO that the assets are worth far more than the market price. He’s happy to fleece panic selling retail.
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Blue Owl Hit With Latest Shock: Boaz Weinstein Launches BDC Tender Offer At Massive 35% Discount To NAV
zerohedge.com/markets/canary…
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@sonalibasak @boazweinstein No, Boaz and BO are both bullish on the underlying assets. It’s Boaz vs the private credit bears.
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@Steve_Sailer @Peter_Nimitz The comp is less of an issue than the fact that all investment decisions get second-guessed by politicians who don’t know what they’re talking about.
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@Peter_Nimitz Part of CalPERS problem is that they won't pay a government employee 7 figures to manage a half-trillion dollars. (Only football coach state employees get paid like that.)
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Michigan switches from 1-4 switching to 1-3 switching out of that timeout to try to prevent the TKR post-up mismatches.
Dylan Burkhardt@umhoops
TKR getting some better possessions against Michigan's switched guards this half but a pair of Elliot Cadeau threes have been huge for U-M.
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@eric_shap Fears had 31 on 9/20 and 12/14 at the line. How do you covert FTA to shot equivalents? He isn’t even all that efficient.
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Fears drew 12 fouls. Outside of Michigan's flurry of early 2H turnovers, that was MSU's best offense.
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When your only offense is Jeremy Fears foul baiting and Izzo yelling at the refs, you know you’re screwed.
Near-perfect defensive half from Michigan until the last 45 seconds.
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Underemployment rate for recent college graduates rose to 41.8%, per New York Fed.
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@junkbondinvest You’re missing the worst part - the GP keeps ~half of that asset level return in fees!
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200bps excess spread vs. syndicated loans
Here’s what that 200bps is paying you for:
> Can't sell it
> Can't price it
> Borrower can stop paying cash and switch to PIK
> You mark it yourself
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Who do you want Michigan to hire as head coach out of the currently available candidates?
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@RRCSLC @DylanEveryday But reportedly the difference is very minor. Doesn’t mean it can’t change later, but 1-2% more is not material. It’s not like they’re expecting double that of NW or Minnesota.
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@DylanEveryday On college football enquirer podcasts they said OSU will be on a call so they made it seem they are not 100 on it but they like the uneven revenue structure. OSU gets more money than other schools in this deal.
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Ohio State could exclusively sell the coaches helmet nike gear and make a quick 6-7 million dollars
It makes NO sense as to why ohio state is agreeing to this other than just going along with the group. There is no reason to extend grant of rights to 2046 for 6-7 million a year. We are being scammed by Big Ten commissioner Mamdani
James T. Yoder@JamesYoder
Can anyone explain why Ohio State and Penn State are siding with the low-revenue schools in this terrible proposed deal? Makes zero sense for them to be interested
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@cronoskapital @LeylaKuni @grok I’m guessing it was in default and the Special servicer was advancing payments. The loan was auctioned (“auctioned”) off to repay the bond holders, who got far less than par.
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This one’s interesting:
Black Diamond Capital, a distressed debt fund, bought 70% of the AAA tranche of the SASB (single asset single borrower bond)
They then bought the mortgage backing this CMBS at a discount, which triggered the liquidation of this bond, according to Bloomberg.
$72M losses to the AAA bond holders. All other tranches wiped out.
There have only been two instances of looses to AAA rated tranches in CMBS since the GFC (including this one)
- how SASB get AAA rating is beyond me, though..
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@LeylaKuni @Moe_Shaltout You’d need to apply a loan-by-loan SEV to each loan, and if you know the unitranche detachment point point (they aren’t all uniform) you could assess expected loan-by-loan loss given default expectations.
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@Moe_Shaltout Can we quantify risk of a lender with 60% unitranche vs a lender with 2%?
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Speaking of ARCC, 60% of the loan book is unitranche loans.
Can someone explain to me like I’m a 10 year old what the implication of this is?
(The screenshot is from Q2)
Julian Klymochko@JulianKlymochko
As the largest listed private credit fund with AUM of $29 billion, Ares Capital (ARCC) serves as one of the best barometers for the current state of private credit. This morning, $ARCC stepped up to the plate and reported its Q3 results, knocking the ball out of the park while stunning private credit bears and exterminating any evidence of cockroaches. The highlights: ✅ NAV increased +55bps, 3.0% quarterly total return (12.0% annualized) ✅ Non-accruals declined -20bps ✅ PIK declined -220bps ✅ Dividend maintained at $0.48 ✅ Quarterly net deployment more than doubled to $1.3 billion ✅ Borrower interest coverage ratio increased 10bps to 2.0x ✅ Underlying portfolio EBITDA growth rate more than double the BSL market ✅ M&A market is firming $ARCC's exceptional Q3 results showcased strong credit results and robust net funding activity, in stark contrast to the extreme negative sentiment surrounding private credit. The improving backdrop for M&A, along with increasing underlying credit metrics, bodes well for future portfolio growth and fee income while indicating that allocators' nervousness surrounding the asset class was unjustified. Disclosure: Long $ARCC
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I was the first #Michigan quarterback to throw for 300+ yards in a game. Who am I?
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@LeylaKuni There were private credit funds that had exposure to FB through private loans, not the BSL market. FB had factoring relationships that are going to feel some pain.
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Mr. Kravis saying "not one penny of private credit" being exposed to First Brands is not entirely correct
(below is the list of BDCs with loans to that company)
But yes, exposure is minimal. Why?
Because First Brands loans were BSL -- broadly syndicated loans, which were securitized and sold off in CLOs (collateralized loan obligations).
The difference between private credit loans and BSL is - among other things - the size of borrowers.
BSL loans are typically given to larger (dare I say, less risky?) borrowers.
P.S. In all fairness, what would you say if you were in Mr. Kravis' shoes??
x.com/LeylaKuni/stat…
Paulo Macro@PauloMacro
Henry Kravis, KKR: We do *not* have pest problem… In other news, KFC says fried chicken is healthy.
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@ClayTravis Money from Calpers means you are acquiring the CA Legislature as a business partner.
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Credit to Michigan for publicly opposing the Big Ten selling an equity stake to a California pension fund. Plan was to ram it all through before opposition could set up. They stopped that. Wolverines are smart here to press pause.
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