kboomer capital

@LowAlphaHighVol Didnt a ton of their team / analyst leave during China bear in 2022? Or was that the only down year for them

Last thing you see before your money compounds at 14% for over a decade with just one single digit down year.

@AcaciaCap Was also when many BNPL were being valued at 10x P/S

Everyone may not remember 1999, but you should remember 2021. There were a lot of narratives regarding digital transformation. In reality, we went back to offices, BNPL did not replace the payment rails, and no one gives a shit about your Peloton.

@rickyho_1989 Isn't this age old gorengan activities? Just a little too blatant and too much this time...BREN larger than BBCA lol....they will find other ways to extract capital once the public market shuts its doors

Additional info: (1) on nominee structures and protection against a run; (2) how brokers protect themselves in the case of danger The economic beneficiary typically does not hold exposure directly in their own name. Instead, risk is dispersed across nominee accounts, custodial vehicles, and related-party structures that are legally distinct but economically aligned. This achieves two objectives at once. First, it creates the appearance of a diversified public float. Second, it allows the ultimate beneficiary to remain insulated from forced selling pressure during periods of stress. Because these nominee holders are not independent actors, they do not behave like price-sensitive investors. They are capital-stable by design. In a sell-off, they do not rush for the exit. They simply stop trading. Liquidity disappears, but ownership does not change. Protection against a run is reinforced through several mechanisms. Internal financing lines, collateralized lending, and margin facilities are structures within the same ecosystem of brokers and affiliated entities. Shares can be pledged, recycled, or temporarily warehoused without ever touching the open market. Losses, if any, are absorbed privately rather than expressed though price. Crucially, when external investors attempt to exit en masse, the economic beneficiary is not competing with them for liquidity. They are on the other side of the structure, watching bids evaporate while their own exposure remains static. This asymmetry is what makes the unwind so violent: i) selling pressure is real, ii) natural buyers are absent, and iii) the controlling block is inert. At that point, the scheme fails suddenly. Once confidence breaks and one supporting broker steps away (P/S: they do when liquidity crisis happens!), the protection mechanism turns from shield to trap. Ultimately, prices do not clear, they just create huge gap. This is why synthetic liquidity is most dangerous not when markets are calm, but when they are tested.

Hey everyone, this is my base case for Indonesian equities going forward. Personally, I view this as a market to avoid entirely, with zero exposure. For those who are already invested, I would seriously consider planning an exit ahead of the developments I believe are increasingly likely. As always, do your own work (DYOR). Based on recent disclosures and signals from Indonesia's capital market authorities, I struggle to see a path where MSCI continues to tolerate the current market structure indefinitely. The probability that Indonesia is eventually downgraded from Emerging Market (EM) to Frontier Market (FM) status appears materially underappreciated. If and when that happens, the mechanical consequences would be substantial, with an estimated US$30-35bn of forced equity outflows. As markets are forward looking, and rational participants will not wait for the formal announcement before repricing this risk. The adjustment process typically begins well in advance. At the same time, valuations remain elevated relative to the underlying quality of liquidity. The index looks inflated, and in my view, highly vulnerable to a sharp correction. The critical question is simple: who becomes the marginal buyer in a market where liquidity is increasingly artificial and both foreign and domestic institutional capital are incentivized to sell? Retail participation may provide some flow, but in size, it is negligible relative to the potential supply that could hit the market. This is the classic setup for a severe liquidity crunch. Once confidence in price discovery breaks, selling feeds on itself, bids disappear, and prices gap lower rather than adjust smoothly. In that scenario, exits become disorderly, correlations go to one, and the outcome is rarely contained or elegant. If this plays out, I believe the endgame will be very ugly with has very serious repercussions at many levels beyond equities. On micro level, let's look at Indonesia's biggest market cap company: Barito Renewables ($BREN) - US$66.4bn market cap, US$11mn daily turnover. On paper, this clears IDX and MSCI headline thresholds. But despite the size, observed daily trading value over the past six months has been extremely thin relative to market cap (just at 0.017% per day). If we measure liquidity against effective float instead of headline market cap: 0.22% per day, still very thin for the company size. This resembles micro-cap liquidity rather than mega-cap behavior. Compared this figure to other large EM mega-caps (Tencent, Samsung, major Chinese, Singaporean or Indonesian banks).

@Ultradeep3 Shocked pikachu face

pretends to be shocked

@TheDriller11 Any thoughts on VAL recent contract? Looks a bit softer than I would’ve thought

Anyone feeling robust $BORR $VAL $ADES Sold out.

@Basteph_ what's driving the strong growth in 1H? pull forward? the guidance seems to suggest slower growth and compressed margins going fwd

Market overreaction due to China potential boycott of Japan has Sanrio stock in free fall. From 8686¥ ATH to 4,999 today. Bought some today.

@atelicinvest 30% SOTP discount! Until it goes to 60% SOTP discount

ah yes, this underlying that I would never buy otherwise is trading at a price I'd never buy but if you just take its valuation at face value the stub is trading at 0.5x FCF

'Value investors' doing due diligence on holdcos trading at 'discount to nav'

@CRUDEOIL231 All the best!

Hi folks, just sharing some personal stuff. I've transitioned to a hedge fund under a global physical trading house. It's a 100% subsidiary and a multistrategy fund. Some of you might guess which company it is. However I'd prefer to remain anonymous publicly, so I won't disclose it. I'm posting this bc many friends in my industry see my X. I'm excited about this new challenge. I'll be managing a portfolio focused on commodities and macro strategies. I've gotten a lot of valuable insights from this space over the years, and I'm grateful for that. I'll continue to contribute here as much as I can. I'm always open to connecting. Feel free to DM me, or if you have my contact info, send me a WhatsApp message. Thank you.

@CRUDEOIL231 Where’d you get your Chikawa pictures? Love them

Russia is pushing surplus crude oil into the sea due to reduced refinery runs, and the US is also floating barrels offshore for now, hoping buyers will be found in Asia. Some cargoes are struggling to find buyers, slowing their voyage speeds. If the significant sanctioned barrels already floating in the South China Sea and the current rapidly increasing offshore crude find berths in ports, global onshore inventories will surge very quickly by year end. #oott #com

@garyHeff Smells like something's happening - large rights issue despite already being underlevered?

$GLIBA $GLIBK not a single question asked on their earnings call

@atelicinvest Bingo!

2025 Q3 edition. Literally just read one like this.

@Floebertus Valuemax pretty cheap too

@bucketshopcap BAML has been doing this for a while in Asia. Just becomes an awkward call of people trying to guess how others are positioned. And of course we all still dial in

From the DMs. Not sure whether to laugh or cry.

@stepnotonpets Isn't $PEW over? Not familiar with it at all though

$CLBR / $PEW was the fattest pitch the market has given in 2 years and you've still got people DM'ing me sob stories of them losing money on this despite endless ideas given to buy in the 10s. There's a similarly fat pitch sitting out there now. See how it goes.

@Globalflows Dollar would blow out as well

The worst outcome for interest rates is replacing Powell with a super dovish Fed chair This would likely push rates on the long end HIGHER, not lower

@pandawatch88 I thought TME was mid-teens?

15 months later, NIs are up: Meituan +170% Eastroc +92% Xiaomi +70% Naura +70% PDD +63% JD +57% Tencent +54% TME +44% Trip +42% Proya +37% Moutai +17% .... BABA +7% Baidu +2% Nongfu 0% PE multiples mostly same, big changes are: Xiaomi graduated to the 40x group, TME to 30x PDD downgraded to the infamous 10x group, Proya to 20x Buying at 20x is making more money than buying at 10x. Just sayin. (small sample blah blah..)

@nope_its_lily Well if USDC in circulation x100 from here CRCL would be really cheap!

@Globalflows Won’t high crude be an impediment to growth?

The equity breakdown is here and everyone who is a free subscriber at capitalflowsresearch.com will receive an important report after the close today : x.com/Globalflows/st…

The Fed is allowing interest rates to compress in a range as this geopolitical shock and credit in the system This is setting the stage for the next move which will reverberate across equity markets and Bitcoin Let's dig in 🧵👇

@ReturnsJourney Very useful, thanks

Starting a heat map to help investors - thoughts?

@victaurs To launch their own stablecoin. It makes sense to me as banks would love to capture this market. Just regulatory “?” But should be reasonable if they stick to just this. Eg: SocGen and BAML looking to launch their own….I thought it’s negative for CRCL!

@victaurs The valuation doesn’t make much sense to me. One has to assume significant CIR improvement / op leverage. Also, NIM surely must come down or competed by others. Banks are likely looking at this product because it’s such a high ROE product. Some banks have announced their plans…