Laura Thomas

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Laura Thomas

Laura Thomas

@laurae_thomas

Chief Strategy Officer @FuseEnergyTech | former @CIA ops officer

Katılım Ocak 2021
420 Takip Edilen3.4K Takipçiler
Greg Scaduto
Greg Scaduto@GregoryScaduto·
@KylesSkyles @laurae_thomas Thanks, Kyle. I’m not out to bury anyone. The honest version is: when people are dead and their families are still in the room, the decent move is to keep the question open a little longer than feels comfortable. It’s a form of respect.
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Greg Scaduto
Greg Scaduto@GregoryScaduto·
No, @laurae_thomas. This is particularly terrible. Laura leads with her CIA credential and then spends the rest of the thread doing arithmetic that does not require one. This is the first tell. The credential is load-bearing in the wrong direction. An Agency pedigree buys the reader’s trust, and the reader is meant to spend that trust on a base-rate argument any competent analyst could have run from public sources. Nothing in the thread reflects privileged access. The authority is borrowed against the institution, and the institution, let us be honest, has spent the better part of a century running operations that these cases, if real, would resemble. To invoke the CIA as a warrant for “nothing to see here” regarding suspicious deaths of scientists with sensitive access is a move of almost pristine irony. It is the fire marshal testifying that fires are statistically rare. Her analytical moves are weaker than the credential suggests. She pre-selects “nuclear” as the claim to refute, then builds her denominator inside that frame. The actual narrative was never exclusively nuclear. Doocy said nuclear and aerospace. Kirn said propulsion and Air Force-NASA endeavors. Shellenberger named Eskridge in sworn House Oversight testimony in November 2024 in a UAP and propulsion context, not a nuclear one. Thomas refutes the Daily Mail’s cover and calls it a refutation of the case. The dentist analogy is the argument’s load-bearing beam and it does not bear the load. Base-rate reasoning requires exchangeable populations. Dentists do not hold clearances, do not work on sensitive programs, and are not the declared collection targets of foreign intelligence services. You cannot refute “group X is being targeted for feature F” by pointing at group Y which lacks F. This is not statistics. “Unsolved” is doing silent work throughout. A case can be formally closed and still be the thing in dispute. Eskridge was ruled suicide. That ruling is the question, not the answer to it. The MIT killing has a known shooter and an open FBI inquiry into possible foreign involvement. Accepting the official disposition as the endpoint of analysis is a methodological choice that happens to dissolve the question she set out to ask. The New Mexico violent-crime-rate aside is cosmetic. That crime rate is driven by urban homicide and domestic violence in specific metros. It is not the reference class for disappearances of retired weapons physicists. It makes the denominator look scarier without being responsive to the claim. And then, in the final paragraph, she gives the game away, just as Engber did. “It takes away from the real targeting of nuclear secrets and scientists that goes on from our adversaries.” So the targeting is real. The question then becomes how to distinguish signal from noise in specific cases, which is precisely the question her thread is built to foreclose. She wants the authority of acknowledging the threat and the convenience of dismissing every instance of it. What she gets right is what Engber at The Atlantic got right. The list is contaminated. Media amplification has inflated it. Some cases do not belong. Families are being hurt. These are real points and worth making. The error is the same in structure: using the existence of bad cases to wave off the possibility of good ones, and presenting base-rate arithmetic as if it answered questions it was never designed to address. The serious version of this story has never been “are the average scientist’s odds elevated.” It has always been “do these specific cases, examined one by one, survive scrutiny.” Thomas’s thread does not examine a single case in its particulars. Neither did Engber’s. Two pieces now, from opposite sides of the credential spectrum, arriving at the same destination by the same route, which is the route that avoids picking up a phone. Please become less confident. You haven’t earned that, Laura.
Greg Scaduto tweet mediaGreg Scaduto tweet mediaGreg Scaduto tweet media
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Laura Thomas
Laura Thomas@laurae_thomas·
@TheZignal which one(s) do you think based on their background and the way they went missing or passed away?
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Dan Zetterström
Dan Zetterström@TheZignal·
@laurae_thomas Oh sure. That’s the bit I’m partly in agreement with. But whilst it looks like the full 12 or so ppl list is sensationalist, one or two could absolutely be targeted by foreign actors. Just have to all be a bit more realistic about it. Both extremes are misguided, IMHO.
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Laura Thomas
Laura Thomas@laurae_thomas·
I know who's targeting American nuclear scientists. I work in nuclear security and I'm a former CIA officer. Ready? It's content creators. UFO promoters built the list. The Daily Mail packaged it. Joe Rogan amplified it. And every week a new name was added to keep it trending, regardless of whether the person had any connection to nuclear weapons. The actual data: 10 cases over 33 months. 4 have documented, non-mysterious causes of death. One was killed by a former classmate who committed a mass shooting at Brown University two days earlier and then killed himself. One died of cardiovascular disease. One was murdered during a random crime spree by a suspect who was caught. One was found deceased with no foul play suspected. Several others on the list aren't nuclear workers at all. The narrative counts NASA (not nuclear) workers, a pharmaceutical researcher, and a retired Air Force general as "connected to nuclear secrets" to inflate the number. Even accepting the broadest possible definition of who belongs on this list, the unsolved cases come to 5 people across a combined government research workforce of hundreds of thousands. Narrow it to verified nuclear security enterprise employees, and you're at 3 unsolved missing persons from a New Mexico nuclear workforce of 32,000+. One of those, police stated he left with a handgun and "may be a danger to himself." Another is a 78-year-old retiree. The FBI reported 533,936 missing person filings nationally in 2024. Over 93,000 remained unresolved at year end. Three cases from a population of 32,000 over nearly three years does not exceed what you'd expect from any comparably sized group of Americans, even before you account for the fact that these cases are centered in a state with one of the highest violent crime rates in the country. There are ~200,000 practicing dentists in America. If you went looking for ones who died unexpectedly or went missing over the past 33 months, you'd find them. You could frame it as a conspiracy against dentists. But we don't see headlines like "10 Dentists Dead or Missing." Pick any profession with 30,000+ workers. Search 33 months of obituaries and police reports and you'll find deaths and missing persons. Baseless claims like this meant for clicks can create negative effects on recruiting for high impact jobs in nuclear security. Plus the pain to the families. And it takes away from the real targeting of nuclear secrets and scientists that goes on from our adversaries. Every missing person case deserves an investigation. Don't be fooled and don't let viral content substitute for actual evidence.
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Laura Thomas
Laura Thomas@laurae_thomas·
@TheZignal No doubt foreign governments have done targeted killings. I'm saying with these cases, to present them as part of an elaborate conspiracy, is clickbait and not honest assessment or thought.
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Roo
Roo@cluckthesystem·
@laurae_thomas "I work in nuclear security and I'm a former CIA officer." GTFO
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Ashton Forbes
Ashton Forbes@AshtonForbes·
Former CIA Agent and Chief Strategy Officer for Fuse Pulse Power Fusion wants you to know there's nothing mysterious about the missing scientists, fusion engineers, and ufologists. It's just a coincidence that these spooks are all in on fusion, despite no public success.
Ashton Forbes tweet media
Laura Thomas@laurae_thomas

I know who's targeting American nuclear scientists. I work in nuclear security and I'm a former CIA officer. Ready? It's content creators. UFO promoters built the list. The Daily Mail packaged it. Joe Rogan amplified it. And every week a new name was added to keep it trending, regardless of whether the person had any connection to nuclear weapons. The actual data: 10 cases over 33 months. 4 have documented, non-mysterious causes of death. One was killed by a former classmate who committed a mass shooting at Brown University two days earlier and then killed himself. One died of cardiovascular disease. One was murdered during a random crime spree by a suspect who was caught. One was found deceased with no foul play suspected. Several others on the list aren't nuclear workers at all. The narrative counts NASA (not nuclear) workers, a pharmaceutical researcher, and a retired Air Force general as "connected to nuclear secrets" to inflate the number. Even accepting the broadest possible definition of who belongs on this list, the unsolved cases come to 5 people across a combined government research workforce of hundreds of thousands. Narrow it to verified nuclear security enterprise employees, and you're at 3 unsolved missing persons from a New Mexico nuclear workforce of 32,000+. One of those, police stated he left with a handgun and "may be a danger to himself." Another is a 78-year-old retiree. The FBI reported 533,936 missing person filings nationally in 2024. Over 93,000 remained unresolved at year end. Three cases from a population of 32,000 over nearly three years does not exceed what you'd expect from any comparably sized group of Americans, even before you account for the fact that these cases are centered in a state with one of the highest violent crime rates in the country. There are ~200,000 practicing dentists in America. If you went looking for ones who died unexpectedly or went missing over the past 33 months, you'd find them. You could frame it as a conspiracy against dentists. But we don't see headlines like "10 Dentists Dead or Missing." Pick any profession with 30,000+ workers. Search 33 months of obituaries and police reports and you'll find deaths and missing persons. Baseless claims like this meant for clicks can create negative effects on recruiting for high impact jobs in nuclear security. Plus the pain to the families. And it takes away from the real targeting of nuclear secrets and scientists that goes on from our adversaries. Every missing person case deserves an investigation. Don't be fooled and don't let viral content substitute for actual evidence.

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Dean W. Ball
Dean W. Ball@deanwball·
Let me repeat this for all the Sensitive People in the room: until you fully own—emotionally and intellectually—that Your Side also contributes to the institutional death spiral of America, in addition to the Bad Side, there is no escaping the spiral. You must look in the mirror.
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The Paranormal Chris
The Paranormal Chris@LegacyProgramVP·
@laurae_thomas Absolutely nailed it, ma’am. Seems like investigative journalism is a thing of the past as this would have been sniffed out long before it started.
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Laura Thomas
Laura Thomas@laurae_thomas·
Laura Thomas@laurae_thomas

I know who's targeting American nuclear scientists. I work in nuclear security and I'm a former CIA officer. Ready? It's content creators. UFO promoters built the list. The Daily Mail packaged it. Joe Rogan amplified it. And every week a new name was added to keep it trending, regardless of whether the person had any connection to nuclear weapons. The actual data: 10 cases over 33 months. 4 have documented, non-mysterious causes of death. One was killed by a former classmate who committed a mass shooting at Brown University two days earlier and then killed himself. One died of cardiovascular disease. One was murdered during a random crime spree by a suspect who was caught. One was found deceased with no foul play suspected. Several others on the list aren't nuclear workers at all. The narrative counts NASA (not nuclear) workers, a pharmaceutical researcher, and a retired Air Force general as "connected to nuclear secrets" to inflate the number. Even accepting the broadest possible definition of who belongs on this list, the unsolved cases come to 5 people across a combined government research workforce of hundreds of thousands. Narrow it to verified nuclear security enterprise employees, and you're at 3 unsolved missing persons from a New Mexico nuclear workforce of 32,000+. One of those, police stated he left with a handgun and "may be a danger to himself." Another is a 78-year-old retiree. The FBI reported 533,936 missing person filings nationally in 2024. Over 93,000 remained unresolved at year end. Three cases from a population of 32,000 over nearly three years does not exceed what you'd expect from any comparably sized group of Americans, even before you account for the fact that these cases are centered in a state with one of the highest violent crime rates in the country. There are ~200,000 practicing dentists in America. If you went looking for ones who died unexpectedly or went missing over the past 33 months, you'd find them. You could frame it as a conspiracy against dentists. But we don't see headlines like "10 Dentists Dead or Missing." Pick any profession with 30,000+ workers. Search 33 months of obituaries and police reports and you'll find deaths and missing persons. Baseless claims like this meant for clicks can create negative effects on recruiting for high impact jobs in nuclear security. Plus the pain to the families. And it takes away from the real targeting of nuclear secrets and scientists that goes on from our adversaries. Every missing person case deserves an investigation. Don't be fooled and don't let viral content substitute for actual evidence.

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Sarah Adams
Sarah Adams@sarahadams·
@5149jamesli He literally made his own bomb and blew it up, we know why. So, you are just making it a conspiracy for the heck of it.
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Laura Thomas
Laura Thomas@laurae_thomas·
@MickWest Yep, I wrote more about it and the damage it does as someone in nuclear security: x.com/laurae_thomas/…
Laura Thomas@laurae_thomas

I know who's targeting American nuclear scientists. I work in nuclear security and I'm a former CIA officer. Ready? It's content creators. UFO promoters built the list. The Daily Mail packaged it. Joe Rogan amplified it. And every week a new name was added to keep it trending, regardless of whether the person had any connection to nuclear weapons. The actual data: 10 cases over 33 months. 4 have documented, non-mysterious causes of death. One was killed by a former classmate who committed a mass shooting at Brown University two days earlier and then killed himself. One died of cardiovascular disease. One was murdered during a random crime spree by a suspect who was caught. One was found deceased with no foul play suspected. Several others on the list aren't nuclear workers at all. The narrative counts NASA (not nuclear) workers, a pharmaceutical researcher, and a retired Air Force general as "connected to nuclear secrets" to inflate the number. Even accepting the broadest possible definition of who belongs on this list, the unsolved cases come to 5 people across a combined government research workforce of hundreds of thousands. Narrow it to verified nuclear security enterprise employees, and you're at 3 unsolved missing persons from a New Mexico nuclear workforce of 32,000+. One of those, police stated he left with a handgun and "may be a danger to himself." Another is a 78-year-old retiree. The FBI reported 533,936 missing person filings nationally in 2024. Over 93,000 remained unresolved at year end. Three cases from a population of 32,000 over nearly three years does not exceed what you'd expect from any comparably sized group of Americans, even before you account for the fact that these cases are centered in a state with one of the highest violent crime rates in the country. There are ~200,000 practicing dentists in America. If you went looking for ones who died unexpectedly or went missing over the past 33 months, you'd find them. You could frame it as a conspiracy against dentists. But we don't see headlines like "10 Dentists Dead or Missing." Pick any profession with 30,000+ workers. Search 33 months of obituaries and police reports and you'll find deaths and missing persons. Baseless claims like this meant for clicks can create negative effects on recruiting for high impact jobs in nuclear security. Plus the pain to the families. And it takes away from the real targeting of nuclear secrets and scientists that goes on from our adversaries. Every missing person case deserves an investigation. Don't be fooled and don't let viral content substitute for actual evidence.

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Laura Thomas
Laura Thomas@laurae_thomas·
Want to know how MAGA ends? Ask a 72-year-old Trump voter in North Carolina. I showed him this and he said: “Something is bad wrong with Trump. Any Christian who sees that should be outraged.” Notes from the Bible Belt: the people who put him in office are watching.
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Britton Taylor
Britton Taylor@brittontaylor·
IS THERE A DOCTOR ON BOARD?
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Heimish Humor
Heimish Humor@HeimishHumor·
A Russian spy, a Chinese spy, and a Qatari spy walk into a bar, and the bar tender says, "What can I get you, Tucker?"
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J.J.
J.J.@euphorobotics·
@laurae_thomas I spoke with a couple religious Catholics in my life recently who voted for him—they are both over it too.
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