CU Dr. J

@Astronof @bayraktar_1love Those drones aren't intended to sink large ships - but they are excellent for destroying sensors, radars, comms - without which a warship is defenseless.

@bayraktar_1love Prymary uses drones with small warheads as far as I know. I doubt they had much impact on a big landing ship.

“Prymary” unit strikes two Russian landing ships, Yamal and Nikolai Filchenkov, as well as “Podlyot-K1” radar system in Crimea.

@TheWhiteWitchTM @Gerashchenko_en Since 24 February, Russia has entered the fifth year of the "Special Military Operation," which, as of January 12, has now lasted longer than Russia's war with Germany.

It is an anti bad news meassure! I mean russia got a lot of that lately if it comes to the Ukrainian front. It is now in its forth year of the war! This little special military operation is now lasting almost as long as WW II! And people might ask Putin questions! Especially since latest reports indicate that Ukraine is advancing!

I’m not buying the explanation that Russia’s internet lockdown is just an "anti-drone measure." Yes, there is an anti-drone logic behind it, but it seems much more like part of a stricter mobilization model: first, the state suppresses communications and limits access to keep people within a controlled digital environment, and only afterward will it conduct a new wave of mobilization with less chaos and less room for resistance. Russia is preparing for a larger war and a broader mobilization. For the process to go smoothly, the regime needs to reduce information leaks, make summonses digital and unavoidable, and narrow the space for evasion and escape. That’s why Russia has already launched electronic summonses - to make it harder for men to avoid conscription. We don’t know exactly where the Kremlin will deploy the next wave of cannon fodder. But we do know that Putin is already expanding the army to 1.5 million active personnel, and the Kremlin has openly justified this by citing threats on the Western flank and the need to create new structures in the northwest. Analysts have noted that Russia cannot start a second war without withdrawing forces from Ukraine. However, for a limited local operation - for example, in the Baltic region - Russia might need roughly 60-90 thousand troops for a second theater. Not "another Ukraine." Not hundreds of thousands in the first wave. Just 60-90 thousand, if they are supported with drones, artillery, air defense, electronic warfare, engineers, and a functional command structure. For a wider multi-vector operation - around 100-140 thousand. So, for a localized crisis, Russia doesn’t need "a second army like in Ukraine." It needs a second strike package sufficient to break the first hours of defense. It’s important not to measure Russia with the old yardstick - number of divisions, tanks, or conventional mass. Russia can enter differently: fewer people, more drones, electronic warfare, long-range fire, mining, and targeted suppression of command. Estonian intelligence reports directly that Russia is deploying a new branch of unmanned forces, expecting around 190 battalions of unmanned systems. The Baltic Fleet already has a regiment of unmanned naval strike systems. Meanwhile, production of large-caliber ammunition has increased more than 17-fold since 2021. This is preparation for the next war while the current one continues. To field such a second strike package without reducing pressure on Ukraine, Russia, in my view, would need a new mobilization wave of roughly 180-250 thousand people. In a stronger scenario - 250-350 thousand. That’s why digital control over society is so important for the Kremlin: it makes a new mobilization more manageable. These are estimates, but if the Kremlin launches a strict mobilization model and a new wave of conscription, it could achieve early operational readiness for a local operation in 12-18 months, reach a plateau of sufficient readiness in 18-24 months, and achieve more sustainable capacity in 30-36 months. This is much faster than the reassuring "6-10 years" Europe often cites for preparation, because "6-10 years" refers to a large war with NATO, not a short, high-intensity shock. Russia’s ability to rapidly form new structures is already evident - for example, the 44th Army Corps was built in 7-8 months. Finally, the war in Iran drastically lowers the cost of a major war for the Kremlin and brings it closer. Russia is the main beneficiary of chaos in the Middle East: Brent is around $103 versus the $59 per Urals assumed in the Russian budget. Cuts to expenditures of 10% can be postponed. Moreover, as The Independent notes, the oil price surge effectively breaks the logic of exhausting the Russian budget: an extra $6-10 billion in less than a month already covers the estimated $6.6 billion monthly cost of compensations and recruitment replacements. So, as of now, war is becoming cheaper for Moscow, and new escalation is closer than ever.

@NiohBerg We can be sure much is going on behind the scenes - such as planning/training for the eventual uprising. IEDs (Improvised Explosive Devices) are effective for rebels. They can be emplaced without direct confrontation with security forces - and cause significant damage.

Look at the state of Tehran. Armed checkpoints everywhere. The ONLY purpose for these is to prevent an Iranian uprising. "Just rise up bro?" Yes, feel free to run into a turret without any weapons of your own. See how easy it is.

Just heard from friends in Ukraine about a Baptist Church intentionally struck by the Russians in Zaporizhzhia. A congregation of 300 who sacrificially built that building to meet for worship. At least 5 victims that we know of, including the pastor. When you read and hear about the war in Ukraine, don't forget that Russians intentionally target, jail, and often murder Baptist and evangelical pastors wherever they take over. Pray for our brave Christian brothers and sisters in Ukraine. Pray for Putin's reign of terror to end. Pray for peace.

@Heritage @JJCarafano @NileGardiner Heritage also spent years holding up thoroughly corrupt Putin puppet Victor Orban as a model of conservative leadership. So - 1 victory on Chagos, 1 embarrassing and well-deserved defeat on Orban.

VICTORY: Heritage spent months sounding the alarm about the folly of Keir Starmer’s Chagos Islands surrender. Over the weekend, his plans were finally defeated. @NileGardiner

@laurae_thomas Does the sick guy look a lot like Epstein???

Want to know how MAGA ends? Ask a 72-year-old Trump voter in North Carolina. I showed him this and he said: “Something is bad wrong with Trump. Any Christian who sees that should be outraged.” Notes from the Bible Belt: the people who put him in office are watching.

@jimgeraghty Board and seize sanctioned/shadow tankers, which have been passing unhindered. Sell the oil onto world markets. Use the $$ to compensate Gulf nations for Iranian attacks, maintain the remainder in escrow for a future responsible regime.

In a situation with no good options and certainly no easy ones, the latest Trump administration strategy of a blockade of Iranian ports may well be the best remaining option. The Iranian regime operating a tollbooth through the Strait of Hormuz is utterly unacceptable, and would be a formula for a stronger, more powerful, even better-armed regime in a few years’ time. If non-Iranian allies can’t get their ships through the strait, then the Iranians aren’t allowed to get their and their customers’ ships through the strait, and we’ll see how the Iranian regime does when it can’t export any oil.

@WindwardAI Seize sanctioned tankers and sell the oil on world markets!

The first signs of the U.S. blockade are emerging as vessels turn away from the Strait of Hormuz. Windward intelligence has identified two key turnarounds at the deadline: • A U.S.-sanctioned, falsely flagged laden tanker reversed course at 12:47 UTC, just over an hour before the blockade. • An EU/OFAC-sanctioned, falsely flagged vessel turned around at 14:00 UTC, exactly as enforcement began. These immediate maneuvers signal a high-stakes shift in transit behavior as the blockade takes effect.

أريد أن افهم فقط.... - أدناه، ناقلة نفط روسية عملاقة عبرت مضيق هرمز ليلة أمس وهي متجهة لجزيرة خرج لتحميل النفط الإيراني. - يوجد في المنطقة بحرية أميركية وبريطانية وفرنسية و.... و - إيران هي الدولة الوحيدة في المنطقة التي استمرت بتصدير النفط يوميا عبر مضيق هرمز ، وكأن الحرب لم تحصل إطلاقا. - في الوقت الذي ضرب فيه الأميركيون جزيرة خرج، استمرت السفن افيرانية بتحميل النفط الإيراني! - ترمب استثنى النفط الإيراني الموجود في البحار وكل السفن التي تحمله من العقوبات الأميركية. - أمس أفرغت سفينة إيرانية حمولتها من النفط الإيراني في ميناء مصفاة باراديب الهندية التابعة لشركة النفط الهندية المملوكة من الحكومة، الحكومة التي يرأسها مودي الذي زار إسرائيل قبل الحرب على إيران مباشرة ووقع عقد تسليح ضخم.

@supbrow @mercoglianos @UANI Why is the US Navy, sitting outside the Strait, not seizing Iranian tankers and then selling the oil on the world market? It’s crazy to let the IRGC continue making money!

@UANI Iran War Shipping Update - April 9, 2026 unitedagainstnucleariran.com/blog/iran-war-… Iran-oil Laden Tankers That Have Left the Persian Gulf Since the start of the conflict, UANI has observed at least 35 ghost fleet tankers laden with Iranian oil that have left the Persian Gulf, some broadcasting their AIS signals and others operating clandestinely. These tankers are enroute to Malaysia to conduct ship-to-ship (STS) transfers with other ghost fleet vessels bound for China. The falsely flagged, OFAC sanctioned tanker PING SHUN (IMO 9231901), also listed on UANI’s Ghost Armada, is anchored near Colombo, Sri Lanka on 9 APR for logistics support. It departed Kharg Island on 18 MAR, laden with Iranian crude oil, and clandestinely exited the Strait of Hormuz. PING SHUN then turned on its AIS in the Gulf of Oman, and listed its destination as Dongying, China. @JemimaShelley @tankertrackers @mercoglianos @ed_fin @nilanthis

@realMaalouf Easy tech solution to avoid annoying neighbors with the loudspeaker calls to prayer - send the calls to prayer via text to those who attend prayers at the mosque.

A woman walks into a mosque in Paterson, New Jersey, and says they are a nuisance to the entire neighborhood because they blast the Islamic call to prayer several times a day starting at 5am. People have had enough of their crap.

@visionergeo Visioner - Please ID your sources. I'm guessing this video was provided by the Iranian regime or an affiliate, since internet is mostly shut down for non-regime supporters. Source ID helps us to assess veracity.

🇮🇱🇮🇷 An Israeli airstrike struck a railway line in Karaj, Iran. ➡️ Emergency services rushed to the impact site.

@therealBehnamBT Why is Iran still exporting oil that funds the regime?? No Iranian ship should be leaving Iran - especially tankers. The US Navy is sitting there outside the Strait. Seize Iranian tankers and sell the oil on the world market.

Seems like the US seizing this tanker and subjecting its cargo to asset forfeiture would be an easier, more cost effective, and less risky way to generate leverage to reopen the Strait of Hormuz than trying to seize Kharg island or turning a blind eye to the IRGC toll-booth.

Armin - best immediate sources of armed support are police and ARTESH who turn to fight with the people. CIA/Mossad are already calling officers with "desert or die" offers. Both agencies have significant numbers of Iranians and I'm sure are signing up more by the day. Strategy most likely to succeed - measles! Organize first in areas of Iran with strong anti-regime public and less security presence. (IRGC/Iraqi goons can't be everywhere.) US/Israeli air support can prevent movement of large groups of government forces. Gradually spread the "measles epidemic" across the country, hot spot to hot spot. Likely place to begin - in the south as you suggest and in NW among Azerbaijanis wanting regime change and who can likely obtain support and shelter (unofficially, of course) in Azerbaijan. My thoughts...

Is it finally time to arm the Iranian people to fight back against the Islamic Republic? The United States and Israel are paving the way by taking out regime bases, but the regime is already importing proxy forces from Iraq, Pakistan, and Afghanistan to maintain their grip. Some argue giving civilians weapons will only lead to a bloodbath and neutralize the advantage of Israeli drone support. Others say unarmed protests are no longer enough against a regime willing to slaughter millions. If strikes on leadership and bases fail, a targeted strategy of arming vetted Iranians in a liberated southern city might be the only option left. Watch the full breakdown and tell me where you stand in the comments. 🎖️ Come talk to me in our discussion group: skool.com/libertypolitic…

@ChuckPfarrer Thanks, Chuck - helpful explanation!

Hi CU. There are somewhere between 150-450 Russian soldiers who have 'deserted in place’. They have dug 360 degree defenses and refuse all orders to participate in military operations. They are mutineers. They have been there a pretty long time. UKR leaves them alone, and Ru doesn’t have the resources to bring them to book. Hope that helps... Best to you.

LYMAN: Ukrainian forces maintain defensive integrity and have conducted successful local counter-mopping operations S of Yampil. An opportunistic UKR counterattack recently advanced in Yarova, NE of Lyman. Russian efforts in the Lyman sector, which peaked with a catastrophic battalion-scale mechanized maneuver attempt in mid-March, continue at a reduced tempo due to high attrition, Ukrainian drone/ drone coordinated fires, drone air dominance, and the constraints of local forested terrain constraints.

@David_Hambling Most important to consider - closing speed! Shahed is moving 100+ mph. Even if F-15/16 slows to 250/300, it will be danger-close to target when cannon rounds blow up the drone. Ukraine lost one of its top pilots and an F-16 learning this lesson

The F-15s stall speed is very close to Shahed cruising speed, so getting close enough to hit with cannon is not at all simple

@GDR_Trading @TheRealRhllor In 4 years, Ukraine has far surpassed what passes for western drone doctrine. Ukraine leads the world. US, Gulf states and others are lining up to learn about and buy Ukraine's inexpensive, efficient anti-drone interceptors.

@TheRealRhllor You are overstepping your territory, projecting Iran will become like Ukraine vs ruzzia. Zero chance ,, it has taken 4 years to instill western military doctrine into UA forces. That very doctrine is on full display for the world to see in the Middle East today. Watch, and learn

I can tell you now that Americans are not ready for the first drone footage of fpv drones hitting US soldiers. Take this from someone that works closely with Ukrainians. Drones account for 90% of injuries for Ukrainians and Russians. At the start of 2023 it was 35%. 1/2

@ChrisO_wiki @nolanwpeterson Today any non-state actor/terrorist can have an air force - kamikaze drones capable of doing significant physical and immense psychological damage. Brace yourselves.

@nolanwpeterson is absolutely right about this. American and other Western soldiers will soon be seen on video clips posted by adversaries, being hunted down and blown apart by drones, potentially tens of miles away from any active front lines. This is now inevitable, given how widely the technology has spread, and it will have a deep impact on public opinion as well as soldiers' morale.

@fmch6444 @TrentTelenko Yet.

@TrentTelenko So basically, it ain’t happening.

If Israeli Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) drones are killing Shaheed-136 launch crews. They are not killing Basij regime security force checkpoints. The US-Israeli air forces will need to inflict at _least_ 200K casualties to Iranian regime security forces... 1/3