Lema

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Very interesting article. A lot to chew on. A couple things that really stuck out to me. 1. Acc to this report that the biggest risk to NVidia’s margins and profitability ironically isn’t its technology superiority eroding due to competitors catching up but rather the absolute technical dominance of its hardware-software ecosystem creating insurmountable strategic national security value and inviting more US govt direct interventions from export controls to outright margin or IP influence? Will the US govt want to take a 10% strategic stake in NVDA? 2. Export controls have “worked” insofar as having slowed down China’s AI development. Without access to the most advanced GPUs, China has to spend time and money to reinvent key technologies that already exist in the U.S. before embarking on the multi-trillion parameters models. To Jensen’s credit, this delay isn’t free but may be bought at the expense of spurring a Chinese AI hardware-software ecosystem that’s eventually entirely independent of NVidia. That would be bad for NVidia and he argues also for the US technological dominance. It seems that indeed may be the case bc “NVidia isn’t a car company” that’s easily substitutable but a sticky and powerful ecosystem or OS. Except to Jensen’s critics, that’s also exactly why they want to limit China’s access to it. China was always going to try to build a NVidia tech stack replica from CUDA to the interconnect software like NVLink or NIXL. Delaying China by a few months or a couple years is exactly the goal the proponents of the export controls are after. At that point, as I said in a post yesterday, the difference stems from a difference in existential values.