Jerry Jordan

100% consensus - it’s a new regime. Rates will never go back down, inflation will stay above 4%. I give that 30% likelihood. The other 70% is not back to where the US was, but “worse”. We’re on the European path, that followed the Japan path. Neg rates by 2028 very possible.

Totally agree, double the salary but throw in term limits.

Epstein file EFTA00090314, a raw intelligence report states that, "Trump has been compromised by Israel. And Kushner is the real brains behind his organization and his presidency." spookyconnections.com/2026/03/19/fbi…

@Sjacobs2020 @YourAnonCentral as i keep saying - they may or may not have videos of Trump . . . but HE thinks they do , at least. Because he knows he's done some shady awful things, and they might have taped them.

@YourAnonCentral It’s quite obvious that Israel and Russia have kompromat on Trump and that he is their puppet. They’ve financed and orchestrated this takeover of the American government. They played the long game.

@nic_carter @nadertheory @ryaneshea Just a thought, maybe they thought everybody in crypto was a bunch of scammers? My guess is they De-Bank drug dealers too? And so far crypto hasn’t exactly covered itself in glory on the scamming side of things.

@nadertheory @ryaneshea Every word of this is 100% correct

Operation chokepoint was a 100% real effort to de-bank the crypto industry, and I experienced it first-hand. Nobody who actually experienced it talks about it because it's embarrassing to get de-banked, but I don't care anymore and the story needs to be told. I will tell you exactly how it worked, about a dark practice called "subpoena-sniping," and what made it so evil. In the past three years I have had over ten bank accounts and brokerages, and got kicked out of every single one except my last two, which I have been using for a while now. There was a day when both my main bank account AND my backup bank account were closed on the same day and I had to walk down a street full of banks in Beverly Hills just trying to get a new account opened so I could operate. The worst, by far, though, was Amex. They kicked me out and voided over 4 million points I never spent worth over $40k usd, which is why you should "always be dumping" your points (cc @stoolpresidente). But more on that later... The way de-banking works is this: People in the political administration, could be the president or uppity members of congress like Elizabeth Warren, decide that they don't like a particular person or a particular industry (crypto, marijuana, etc...). They could call the banks and tell them to stop banking that industry explicitly, but that's actually not even necessary. Instead, they can have a regulator like the SEC just start issuing subpoenas to everyone's bank who works in that industry. Much less work and much lighter-touch (low-level employees at the SEC can issue a subpoena without much paperwork). A bank's reaction to a subpoena from a federal agency is almost always to immediately shut down that person's bank account. With most banks that means you instantly can't log in, can't access your money, and, best of all, you have to wait for a snail-mail check to get your money, which you can't actually deposit because you don't have a bank account (the irony...). And did I mention the check takes a week to clear even after you've deposited it into your new bank? This is why I always have a main bank account and a "backup" bank account, always. Why a check, why not a wire transfer? It lets the banks sit on your money and earn interest on it for longer. Yes, that's actually the reason... But it gets even better: When you lose your bank account, they don't even tell you why it happened, they just stonewall you completely, even if you've been a customer for over a decade. My favorite experience with this was with a neobank where I actually knew the founder and HE couldn't even tell me why they debanked me because the decision was made by their partner bank, which wouldn't tell THEM the reason, so he didn't even know it. Insane! The way I found out about this practice was actually by talking to lawyers after things got serious with my SEC case. Apparently, the most common tactic when the SEC or DOJ go after someone is to try and de-bank them by throwing subpoenas at all of their financial institutions as fast as they can open them. We called it "subpoena-sniping" and it was such a well-known and disruptive practice that multiple law firms actually recommended I wire them a lot of money up-front to "keep it safe" so that I wouldn't lose my ability to pay them halfway through what we were doing. Luckily, only thanks to crypto, that wasn't necessary... My top advice for Amex customers in particular is to always be dumping your points. The reason is that a high points balance is viewed as a liability by Amex, and thus makes it more likely they'll randomly decide that your account is non-compliant, even without a subpoena (I learned this from lawyers as well). Put another way, accounts with a lot of points are "expensive" to Amex, and so they will look for any excuse to close them before you can cash them out. In my case that meant losing over 4 million points worth over $40k usd. The crazy thing is they took my points even though I lived in New York at the time, and even though NY literally passed a law and SUED Amex precisely to stop the practice of closing accounts to steal points. Just think about it for a minute: Enough people got mad at Amex for points-stealing that NY, a place where Amex has regulatory capture, passed a LAW to ban it (which I can confirm from first-hand experience they are completely ignoring). If that's not a sign you should always be dumping those points then I really don't know what is... To this day, Amex is the only financial institution that I actually lost money with. Even the sketchiest crypto exchanges I've used over the years never did something as greasy as what Amex did, let alone after being a customer for over a decade. Now for a list of some banks and brokerages that kicked me out, just to name and shame explicitly: Bank of America, Fidelity, Chase, Wells Fargo, Amex, First Republic (rest in peace), SVB (rest in peace), Webull, Mechanics Bank (got desperate lol), Bank of the Orient (also lol). In many cases I came in through a relationship, had a contact at the bank, and was happily banking for years, sometimes over a decade-- none of it mattered, I was out the second a subpoena came in, with zero explanation. Also funny story about SVB: By pure coincidence they debanked me ONE WEEK before they went insolvent-- you can't make this stuff up. There are also three neobanks that kicked me out but I know the founders, I like them, and it was the underlying partner bank's fault not their fault so I won't name them. Now, thankfully, it's all over and I can talk about these things. But the problem isn't actually resolved. Banks still auto-cancel your account when they get a government subpoena, the process still sucks for people when it happens, and every bank and brokerage that kicked me out in the past is still inaccessible to me. Even though "operation chokepoint" ended under Trump, everyone who was affected by it previously is still affected. One solution to this problem is new banks that are willing to stand up against this practice, and that's why I'm excited about things like Palmer Luckey's Erebhor and William Hockey's Column. But it only works if they make it a point to stand by their customers through thick and thin. I hope they will do this. Of course, we all know the ultimate solution, though: Crypto itself. The very thing that scared the politicians into de-banking us in the first place will be their eventual downfall. They can delay it but, thankfully, they can't stop it.

@cenkuygur @Selkis_2028 Leads ?? Why would they have leads?? They got the guy?? Right? Riiiiggghhhttttt ?????

Joe Kent says that an investigation that had leads on Charlie Kirk's death was shut down. If he's telling the truth, that is a MASSIVE problem. We don't know what that investigation would have found, but why on earth would our own government shut that down? What do they know?

@Ritholtz Yield curve

We are in the midst of a hot war in the Middle East, with Oil prices kissing $120, a cooling (pre-war) labor market, and the odds of a recession ticking up from modest levels. And despite all of this geopolitical economic chaos, Silver and Gold are both crashing. Besides capital flow reversals and speculative unwind, can anyone explain what is driving this action?

lol, war over

I continue to prefer the 2018 analog, which would put us similarly in the first quarter of that year. Now we have a grind back up into the summer and then the ramifications of this oil surge really starts to hit home , and we roll over Hard into the midterms. This would also fit the classic seasonal pattern

The boat is getting tippy. About $64 billion has come out of SPY + QQQ over the past 3 months. That's nearly double the previous decade's extreme. Still not all that extreme as a % of assets tho.

@ianbremmer Nah. That was a good one.

did not have the pearl harbor reference while seated with the japanese prime minister on my bingo card. in retrospect i consider this a personal failing.

@WSJ @farrmacro I figured this out several years ago:

China isn’t planning to invade Taiwan in 2027 and would prefer to take control of the island without resorting to force., the U.S. concludes on.wsj.com/4lAedlA

@donnelly_brent lol

I was told there would be steepening.

@grok @JTLonsdale @TMTLongShort Shocking !!!

No. A search of his tweets shows mentions of the Iranian regime as a geopolitical threat starting in late 2023, with discussion of its internal oppression, theocrats, repression of Persians, hanging gays, and killing dissenters appearing from April 2024 onward (including support for Reza Pahlavi and regime change). No matches for tweets specifically on "raping and killing of the Iranian people" predate that by years.

Balaji is a bright guy but he fled the USA and has set his mind totally against our future success. He lives in a world where US is losing and China is winning. This is his fixation. It’s dangerous, and it’s wrong. And this war has embarrassed China, destroyed their 100 cargo planes of war materials and their military ally, and frustrates them. It’s fair to disagree about the attack. But saying that its architects are guilty of any downside is childlike nonsense. They should be proud of their work and their courage to take on this evil. If you’re against the war, do you get credit for the last two decades of literal mass torture and mass rape and repression by this regime, and its terror funding and death around the region? Do you get credit for “supporting” the billions it spends on social media bots and information operations to polarize the US against ourselves, and weaken the west? Do you also get credit for what would have been the next twenty years of that? Are you, Balaji, responsible for that side of it? No? But if you are for it, you get zero credit for fixing any of that, but blamed for ALL the possible downsides? Total BS. The mullahs holding the region hostage shouldn’t get your help to blame others for the damage they do. Geopolitics and war is complex and there are risks on all sides. There is risk in acting, and in not acting. I’m really glad we are taking advantage of the massive innovation and competence gap that exists at this moment, and finally eliminating so much evil. I hope for freedom for the Iranian people and know that the situation is hard and complex, but either way it is good to stop the bad guys and eliminate so many of the worst groups, who have done so much damage, from history. Nobody should get away with what those bastards did for so long; this was long overdue.

@MarkNeuman18 Those surveys are always tricky. For example, FMS polls people every month and asks what’s the thing that’s in the biggest bubble, and often whatever they choose runs for another six months.

@lighthousejerry Did you see how the most recent Bank of America FMS shows retail piling into commodities now? Most mid 2022.

Oil has been leading stocks for the last 2 weeks, literally tic-for-tick. BUT in the last couple of days I am "sensing" a switch - it looks like stocks are leading oil. Which, if correct, would mean that a rally in stocks, would lead to weaker oil prices, and thus become a self-fulfilling rally.

Why is the GOP blocking Epstein bank records? The answers may lie in the Treasury Department. open.substack.com/pub/jkbjournal…

@dabbs346 Welcome to the world of Having To Work With Michele Tafoya

Be aware that $20-40b of that has to go to companies run by Don Jr

@Mayhem4Markets Is it possible that by participating, this also gives them the political room to get a cease-fire?

This is a big deal as it suggests we may see a coordinated multi-national effort to secure the Strait. Which, in turn, means countries may be preparing to defend against Iranian attacks and destroy the sites from which attacks are launched into the Strait. Escalation by another name?

@marketgeniusx @zriboua So an extra $1-2b. That’s 5 minutes of GDP in China.

China was buying Iranian crude at ~$8-12/bbl discount to Brent. Un-sanctioning those 140M floating barrels kills the shadow fleet arbitrage. Beijing either pays market or loses access. Meanwhile QatarEnergy declaring force majeure on LNG -- energy supply chains are fracturing in real time.

Bessent is forcing China to buy oil at market price. No more discounts. That’s all you need to know. That’s the policy.

@dampedspring @BlacklionCTA Uh oh - we might be losing the warm and fuzzy Andy !!!

@BlacklionCTA Thanks was going to write similar when I saw that. Bessent is a bitch isn't he.

It is also out of historical norm for DOJ to investigate a sitting Chair over construction costs.