Jerry Jordan

100% consensus - it’s a new regime. Rates will never go back down, inflation will stay above 4%. I give that 30% likelihood. The other 70% is not back to where the US was, but “worse”. We’re on the European path, that followed the Japan path. Neg rates by 2028 very possible.

stole this from Oxford Economics. EM is getting shellacked when you remove TSMC, Samsung and SK Hynix.

No kidding

““A number of the models now show a real chance for a record-setting El Niño event,” said Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist at Berkeley Earth. “It is still too early to know for sure.” Powerful El Niño Is Forming. If History Is a Guide, It Could Hit Hard. nytimes.com/2026/05/21/cli… via @NYTimes

chances of saudi arabia joining abraham accords given present israel policy in gaza (called a genocide by mbs) & west bank: pretty much zero

@CommodMkt @LukeGromen @SquawkCNBC This all makes sense. The problem I’m having is oil just keeps going down.

Five "deal" announcements, zero closed (yet). That's a trend. Sell the tweet, buy the molecule. Iran's leverage increases with every day that passes and inventories decline, while it decreases for the West. Thank you to @SquawkCNBC Asia for having me on this morning. Attached is the clip: 50 years of efficiency made oil cheaper per unit of GDP but more irreplaceable in function -- it is the rare earth of the macro system. cnbc.com/video/2026/05/…

Well, it was bound to happen to me in real life eventually. A close relative of mine who may or may not have given birth to me, but who will remain completely anonymous, sent a group text to the family on Saturday letting us know she just found out about the SpaceX IPO, "the easiest money in history of the stock market." She hasn't slept for two nights, she's so excited. Like putting-on-a-coat-you-haven't-worn-in-four-years-and-finding-out-you-forgot-$3m-in-capital-gains-in-your-pocket excited. Important details: ▶ Yes, this person received this big insider information from a Facebook group of hundreds of thousands of other ill informed people over 70 who can't tell that an AI video of the sun exploding is fake. ▶ No, this member of my family has never, in her entire life, discussed or taken an interest in the stock market until this weekend. ▶ Yes, the other person who may or may not be responsible for my birth is having a friend of his call her, claiming to be Elon Musk, and informing her that he has all the money he needs and he's sorry, but it's too late and to not bother taking part in this IPO. I'd have rather she discovered heroin.

@anasalhajji @SantiagoAuFund I’d argue it’s not a manufactured crisis, it was a small war that ended up being a big disaster and resulted in the largest supply collapse in history. But none of it was on purpose.

🧿The Hormuz Crisis is not an oil crisis. It cannot be compared to past oil shocks. 🧿It is not an energy crisis. It cannot be compared to what the US experienced in 1972-1973 or any other in Europe. 🧿It is not a lockdown crisis. It cannot be compared to COVID-19. 🧿The Hormuz Crisis is a manufactured global crisis — the largest since World War II, intended to change the global economic and financial system and trade patterns. Its ramifications across every sector, every industry, and every field are beyond our current comprehension. We will learn as we go. 🧿The innocence is gone forever.

Manias in earnings expectations are one of the most insidious kinds of bubbles because it looks like elevated prices are supported by fundamentals, not speculation.

@MavsStan41 We used to be coached to not go for every pump fake especially with guys like Kawhi who pump fake literally on every single solitary shot. The problem is everybody wants to block the ball and get on SportsCenter.

We used to pump fake to get a better shot up in this league

BREAKING: MY WIFE & I HAVE REACHED A FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT FOR PEACE. 1. SHE WILL REOPEN “THE STRAIT” TO PREWAR LEVELS, EXCEPT NOW I MUST PAY HER $2,000 TO “TRANSIT.” 2. SHE STILL WONT GIVE ME MY GOLF CLUBS, BUT I CAN ASK HER AGAIN IN 30 DAYS. 3. I WILL GIVE HER MY BONUS CHECK.

BREAKING: MAGA 'pray-away-the-gay' pastor Alan Chambers gets busted by police after trying to have sex with an underage boy 💀

@the_chart_life What is this a basket of ?? The 100 biggest global corporations?

$IOO

Not a chance. We’d save half 1 trillion on cost per year, drug cost device cost. I have no idea how massive the savings on insurance companies would be, but at least equal to that. It would increase demand most likely, which would increase cost, but figure the average employer/family is already spending $10 to 20k a year so this is absolute ridiculous.

I genuinely, deeply hate to say this because people are going to think I'm predicting the future of the stock market, and I'm not. I have no more of an idea how long they can levitate this than you do. I lived in Austin from '94 to '03. I *vividly* remember friends dropping out to take insane jobs that you couldn't pass up (in tech) that paid absurd money and offered stock options. Multiple friends were Dellionaires. I remember the nights out on them on Sixth Street. One night, a stranger I was shooting pool with at the Tavern offered me $$80k+ a year (in 1999 dollars) to "play video games all night, drink Dr Pepper, and answer the help line in case anyone actually calls it." He had money to burn and he was going to. His investors demanded it. A friend with an (non computer) engineering degree from MIT got a job paying him $350k a year with a company that hadn't sold a single widget yet because they needed to make it look like they were a) hiring great people and b) spending their money on the sort of things they thought their investors wanted to see. The money coming in from investors was euphoric and it needed to be spent or the spigot would be turned off and we all knew it. The stories were real. I watched it first hand. It's feeling eerily similar. I'm not suggesting the coming stock market is 2000-2003 because things *have* changed and the tricks to keep the illusion alive have gotten a lot more complex. Maybe this goes on forever. But, man, I gotta tell you. EMOTIONALLY, there are actual similarities to late 90s Austin investor-cash euphoria. Feel free to stay optimistic, but tread carefully.

Xerox. Ford. McDonald's. Apple. Goldman. Blackstone. Every one of them went public when investors were desperate to own them. The market peaked shortly after each. The IPO is rarely about the company needing capital. It's about the seller needing a buyer.

> Enhanced Games launched in 2026 as the first “doped Olympics” > Athletes openly allowed to use steroids, PEDs, anything legal > Founded on the idea that human limits are artificial and drugs unlock the real ceiling > Hunter Armstrong shows up > Two time Olympic gold medalist and former world record holder > Refuses every drug > Sings up as the only “non enhanced” swimmer in his field > Faces a pool full of athletes pumped on steroids > Wins the 50m backstroke anyway > Walks away with $250,000 Dude is absolut chad.

Because it REALLY signifies that the worst options are off the table.

@dampedspring All fair. What do you use as your indicator to signal the bubble has popped ??

Trading and investing in a bubble regime 1. Always own beta (doesnt matter much what kind) 2. With every ounce of your being do not leverage up 3. Overweight professional managed cheap trend following managers 4. Under no circumstances short the rally. 5. BUT most importantly do not buy the dip when the bubble has popped.

Eai, quem disposto a ir pra Índia nos próximos dias? 🇮🇳🥵 Boa parte do país terá sensação térmica acima de 50°C, alguns pontos chegando nos 55°C. Pensa na loucura.🫠 Detalhe, essa região que atingirá a sensação de 55°C, significa também que vai atingir 33°C do bulbo úmido. Lembra do que eu sempre falo sobre o bulbo úmido letal? Acima de 35°C do bulbo úmido, quando a umidade está saturada e a temperatura do ar acima de 35°C temos o BULBO ÚMIDO LETAL. Nesse nível NENHUM ser humano resiste por mais de 2 horas, idosos e bebês cerca de 30 minutos para entrar em colapso térmico. A Índia é um grande exemplo de uma nação a beira de uma catástrofe, e estamos falando do país mais populoso do mundo, quase 1.5 bilhão de pessoas. Com o aumento na média da temperatura mundial em 3°C até 2050, essa região irá atingir o bulbo úmido letal várias vezes, significa que teremos migração de milhões de pessoas nas próximas décadas, isso só falando da Índia. Esse é o caos que muitos analistas geopolíticos não estão incluindo nas suas análises sobre a mudança na ordem global. Eu incluo porque é o fator principal, estamos falando em colapso civilizatório global, isso conta muitos mais do que as loucuras dos EUA em desespero pelo seu declínio hegemônico. Os países precisam correr para conseguir fazer adaptações climáticas profundas, com o atual modelo de governança assimétrico e imperialista, não está sobrando dinheiro para as nações investirem nem na transição energética para reduzir a velocidade em que o planeta aquece. É uma loucura ver isso e saber que um país está tentando sabotar a sobrevivência de várias nações e a estabilidade internacional. Insanidade pura.

The pod hedge funds, and the vol control folks and the CTA‘s that are trading index Futures not commodities, will move around $1 trillion. The buyback’s come in and are far more dominant in terms of moving the market then the 401(k) passive money coming in. That’s just a fact and not even worth debating anymore.

@lighthousejerry @neilksethi @profplum99 1) Buybacks are not investment decisions. 2) what is a dynamic fund? If it's just another way of saying actively managed investments, you are just wrong. All the data is against you.

Citadel's Rubner highlights a point that @profplum99 has been talking about for years: "Passive vehicles are playing an increasingly dominant role in determining where marginal equity demand is allocated. "Passive buying is not neutral in today’s market structure. Every $1 allocated into the S&P 500 increasingly becomes a pro-growth, pro-momentum, and pro-large-cap allocation. Roughly ~35c of every incremental dollar flows into the Mag 7, ~41c into the Top 10 names, and nearly half into AI-linked exposure."