luclee

@JakeGru79480243 @ChadWeather Where about?

@ChadWeather Hail mixed with some sleet here

Hefty showers around now and a more organised band of rain sinking SE over the next 30-60 mins. Some torrential downpours. Risk of hail and thunder.

@TempestWatch What warmth and sun?

Can the UK see thunderstorms now, I’m getting bored of this shitty weather🥀

The GFS model is hinting at a north-easterly wind developing around 19 March, which could bring bitterly cold conditions to the UK. There is also the potential for the flow to turn easterly, possibly linked to the impacts of a major Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event, which can increase the likelihood of colder weather patterns across Europe and the UK. If this pattern were to fully develop, snow would be possible across many parts of the UK where precipitation occurs. Although it would be late March, setups like this can still produce snowfall and wintry showers, particularly in a cold easterly or north-easterly airflow.

🚨 BREAKING: UK, France, and Germany say they are ready to take defensive action against Iran, according to AFP. Follow: @_GlobeObserver #Iran #IranWar

BREAKING: Germany, France, and the UK are ready to take defensive action against Iran.

@TempestWatch What’s the red thin line?

Cold fans, there’s still one last hope. A major SSW is unfolding at the start of March and could influence colder weather into mid-to-late March. Northern areas have a higher chance of seeing snow during these potential cold spells, as their latitude favors both colder temperatures and snow. There’s much stronger agreement on this major SSW, with most ensemble lines clustered around -5. While it’s looking unlikely, ensemble and model charts have shown no hints of sustained cold, never say never! Mother Nature can always surprise us.

The Islamic regime in Iran didn’t exactly have a great first day in the war with USA and Israel

@Met4CastUK Cold if it came wouldn’t arrived until after 15th so bit confused really

Milder conditions likely to persist for the next 5-7 days with drier weather too. Longer term, rising AAM should allow for further areas of high pressure mid-late March with temperatures generally around or slightly above average. No sign of cold weather returning ❌

@TempestWatch Wouldn’t expect lag to be overly long. Interesting how final warming seems to follow shortly after..

@luclee47 Just a continuous uptrend. Major SSW likely and potential impacts for the UKs weather at mid - end of March. It might be too late into the season but who knows

A Major SSW is expected in early March, with potential impacts at the surface developing 1–3 weeks later. This raises the likelihood of increased atmospheric blocking, which could allow colder air to reach the UK. While Winter 2025/26 may end on a quiet note, early Spring could still deliver a late-season cold spell. Recent model trends over the past couple of days have strengthened the signal, increasing confidence in a major SSW developing.

@TempestWatch If this SSW flops then a bit of warmth will do!

My prediction for March in the UK is for warmer-than-average conditions, largely driven by south-westerly airflow. Brief colder interludes may occur due to increased blocking linked to a weak SSW (at present), but these are likely to be short-lived and unlikely to bring snow. Rainfall totals may stay below average overall, with the potential for notably high, possibly record-challenging — temperatures at times.

Another day of Zonal being below the 0 Line. People say downgrade but it’s incorrect. If anything this just “confirms” that a SSW is going to occur at the start of march.. We don’t know the extent as we can tell by the fluctuations over the past few days. This all will change.

Nice improvement compared to yesterday, with tropical convection more active over the Pacific

@TempestWatch @JakeGru79480243 no concern really, all this run has done is show strong agreement of this ssw. Now that we “know” it’s happening (likely) the severity remains unknown. expect fluctuations though.

@JakeGru79480243 I know we discussed this last night and I did say there was going to be a downtrend but this model is better as there is more agreement and I think a SSW is likely but colder impacts r unlikely.

@TempestWatch Yes that’s what it looks like as of today, but 2 days ago it showed different. plenty of time for significant changes

@luclee47 Lines r also closer together which means there is agreement its just a slightly weaker major SSW which might not have as great as impact.

New zonal wind data is in, and it’s clearly trending downward. 📉 In my view, the downtrend is becoming more established, but the key question is whether it continues. We’ll have to wait for tomorrow’s update to see if the momentum holds. I still believe a major sudden stratospheric warming event is likely to occur, though it may end up being relatively weak and short-lived rather than a prolonged, high-impact event.

@TempestWatch Yep.

@luclee47 It is a major SSW which I believe will still happen. Downtrends are obviously going to happen. There is still plenty of time for it to uptick again and that could possibly happen.

@TempestWatch But then again, That’s still a major SSW.

@TempestWatch You were right. Sorry for doubting you

#ssw What is the difference between major and minor SSW? A major SSW in which the stratospheric winds reverse from climatological-mean westerly flow to easterly flow, waves can no longer propagate upward above the level of the reversal and so subsequently break at lower and lower levels in the stratosphere, reversing the wind downward from the upper stratosphere to the lower stratosphere. The reversal of the zonal circulation is thus a fundamental characteristic of major SSWs and their associated dynamics. The frequency of major midwinter SSWs is an important metric of polar stratospheric wintertime variability  “Minor'' SSWs (during which the 10hPa circulation remains westerly at 60°N) are frequent but often have little impact on lower stratospheric polar processing. If the reversal of temperature gradient does not follow the zonal-mean wind reversal, then it is a minor SSW we have to wait how is will envolve next days