Alejandro
3K posts











Non-Consensus View: The visit of China’s premier js a symbolic bending of the knee. China is capitulating. @balajis is not reading this correctly Why? China is hurting. - China’s currency is under pressure as capital leaves at the fastest rate in 7 years - FDI is down to 1998 levels - Exports are down significantly due to friend-shoring - Semiconductor export controls are not yet throttling China…but they have come up to the line - China’s Ali Baba and tech leadership cannot get their hands on advanced GPU chips - China’s birth rate continues a decline that spells industrial mediocrity Why visit California? And meet a ‘Provincial Governor’? California is the state whose IP is most at risk of corporate espionage. And China needs US semiconductor designs. What about US Bonds? Sec’y Yellen has ‘intensified’ talks with her finance counterpart. The US needs to sell bonds at better rates. The US can then also import from China. The capital account and current account worked together beautifully for decades. And Semiconductors? China imports more semis than Oil. And the US is controlling exports, but not killing GPU exports. That would be the next escalation - it’s a clear threat. China is pouring more money into semiconductor startups than the US. But the US and Taiwan have the technical leadership and edge… too little too late. China and US Relations? Visits don’t often happen without some news announcements - trade deals, understandings, or a rapprochement. Engagement is constructive. They are bargaining on American soil. The China Premier is making Nixon’s trip to China many decades ago a complete circle. The symbolism is thick and my have substance.



BRAG ABOUT SOMETHING YOU’RE PROUD OF ACCOMPLISHING IN 2023 ✨✨✨✨✨✨✨✨✨✨✨✨✨✨✨✨✨✨✨✨✨✨✨✨✨✨✨✨


















