Zhiyi Li

@aleabitoreddit 你看过这个吗

I personally think valuations are extremely stupid now on $AAOI and $SIVE. With AAOI you're doing $5.62B annualized revenue (probably higher), by midpoint next year. And it's a $8B MC. With Sivers, I would est. it's close to ~5 forward 2028 P/E off 10% win allocation, 65% yield, and $75 ASP.

Lot of people were curious about $SIVE capacity volume ramp modeling through fab-light (Win Semi + others): Using 10% of Win's wafer capacity as a low-end allocation (65% yield assumption, $50-$75 ASP): Sivers would support $341-$512M worth of annual array revenue. Given upper end of managements 50-60%+ gross margin target, would be roughly: $205–307M of annual gross profit. Against Sivers current ~$1.1B MC, would be ~: 3.6–5.4× MC/gross profit if this capacity scenario plays out in 2028. And at 15% would be $307–461M in gross profit (2.4–3.6× MC/gross profit) Sivers CEO also replied that they're working with more fabs for capacity. And from an older deck, there looks to be more qualifications since 2024. So capacity targets might be larger than what's stated here as CPO takes off. I also expect to see revenue pipeline projections hiked in future quarters, as more qualification suppliers to into HVM. _ As for demand side, CW also happens to be very bottlenecked. Lumentum are buying CW off the open market due to EML obligations from their ER transcript. And $AMD are signing LTAs to secure CW capacity (from Trendforce). So when Sivers is ramping with $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, O-NET and others... Given the current constraints, it's highly likely any independent qualified capacity that comes online would be absorbed. And as a cherry on top, Morgan Stanley named $SIVE (~$1.1B) as one of the three leading CPO laser players . Alongside $55B+ players Coherent and Lumentum in their recent note for a reason... _ TLDR: Sivers only needs a low end allocation from Win to make substantial gross income relative to current valuations. I think the largest revenue upside that isn't modeled in if they TAM expansion with M&A after US NASDAQ listing. By copying the Lumentum playbook with Cloud Light to build out entire transceiver modules or with optical engines.

@Million_Sancet 任何内部人员的抛售都是毁灭性的打击，希望他们不要这么做

I agree Today is a crucial day for $SIVE If we don’t see any insider selling (which is highly likely), I think we will see a strong rebound Combined with the purchases by 6 insiders this week, including the CEO, it would represent a massive vote of confidence in $SIVE On the other hand, I agree that even with a rebound, we will probably fluctuate in the 30-50 SEK range (as our colleague mentioned) until we start seeing recurring revenue We'll see how the day goes and how the insiders move Still, in the short term, this won't affect anything other than some people's confidence In the long term, the fundamentals remain intact Long on $SIVE

Morgan Stanley note on CPO today. Key participants include: - $SIVE, $COHR, and $LITE in laser supply - Broadcom and Nvidia in switch platforms - Lightmatter, Ayar Labs, Marvell/Celestial, and POET in optical engines and photonics, - $TSM, $GFS, and $TSEM in silicon photonics foundry capacity I’ve covered all of these before, like Tower Semi. But I’m especially happy that Morgan Stanley validated my research that $SIVE is one of the critical global players in CPO. A small $1.5B laser company next to your two leading $60B+ companies… If you also synthesize Rosenblatt Securities recent note that China laser suppliers were quite far from having CPO lasers. This kinda magnifies importance of the three Western leaders of that laser chokepoint.

TLDR of Innolight investor relations takeaways: 1. "Overall, 1.6T market demand has not contracted; instead, 800G demand has increased significantly compared with previous expectations" Prob most important takeaway as a whole was 800G demand revision (also longer tail demand). Which is a bullish read through on US transceiver makers like $AAOI, $COHR, $LITE. Lot of new customers like neoclouds, AI model companies, contributing to overall demand rather than just hyperscalers, diversification always a bonus. 2. Innolight said the shortage covers the module supply chain broadly including: - Optical chips. - Electrical chips. - PCBs. - Other module materials From last ER, I think they singled out EMLs and CW optical chips as the most constrained. So Innolight's bottleneck list mention broadened since then. They expect some of the component availability to improve gradually from the second half of 2026 through the first half of 2027. Think a lot of this is already known from earlier though. But just some confirmation + easing timelines (EML is extremely bottlenecked, same with CW, this is probably talking about other components). 3. Innolight said module-production equipment is not the constraint. Equipment lead times remain relatively short. So this isn't really a bottleneck compared to others. 4. The overall proportion of silicon photonics continues to trend upward. Last year it was mainly 800G. This year, some 800G customers are further increasing their silicon-photonics proportion. 1.6T also added some new customers Positive for SiPH penetration eg. $SIVE / $JBL, since this shifts away from EML toward CW. Basically: main surprising takeaway is just 800g demand go brrr. Apart from that just reaffirming bottlenecks/timelines/market speculation.

@Menghuanlangqi2 出去了还是底层认知，一辈子底层人吧

习近平今年9月份访问美国，还有两个月就过来了。在美的华人朋友们准备好9月份去华盛顿抗议了吗？🤓🤓

@revoAIution 剩下的交给时间吧

I think the bottom is here or very very close for $SIVE at around 40 SEK~ $4 USD. But I honestly do not know how long we will be around these prices. Nobody can time the market and we could sit here for a while. The sell off across photonics, AI and CPO has been extreme. The macro is rough. The bears are loud. And yes it is easy to be bearish right now. It is always easy to be bearish during a drawdown, especially a major one... But we happen to be in the middle of the biggest technological revolution of our lifetime. And with that. we have a company with confirmed partnerships connecting to some of the most powerful companies on earth. $GFS. Ayar Labs. $JBL. $POET. O-Net and $ENA. A Fortune 100 wearable customer approaching volume phase. SATCOM and defense revenue already coming in. CPO just around the corner. And the valuation sitting at roughly $1.2 billion. That is a joke for what this company has built. You do not attract this many multibillion dollar partners linked to hyperscalers by being average. These companies do not sign deals with companies they do not believe in. They chose $SIVE. Institutions just bought at 57 SEK in an oversubscribed raise that closed overnight. That does not guarantee a floor. But there was enough conviction from serious money to fill that book in hours at a price 40 percent above where we are trading today. $SIVE does have to execute. And I believe they will.

@PeterRich_ho 买了多少啊

$SIVE 망했네. 분석 다 필요 없다. 60% 내려온 건 조정이 아니라 박살 난거야. 인정한다. 닝기 씨벌스 니가 이겼다. 초과 청약하면 뭘하나. 30%가 더 빠졌는데. 테제가 좋으면 뭘 하나. 실발 때 허접한 PT 자료 보고 설마 했는데. 조롱하는 새끼들이 너무 많아졌다. 근데 난 왜 자꾸 사고 있는거냐 🤣

@rin05181130 @chuxi2050 @1cesgusto 不感兴趣不代表可以抹去历史，懂吗？

@chuxi2050 @1cesgusto それはあんたら中国が世界中に大袈裟に広めたから ほとんどの国は731なんて興味ないよ

Japão tem mais é que se fuder, bando de FDP. Até hoje eles tem orgulho dos crimes de guerra deles na II GM. Só procurar Unidade 731, Massacre de Nanquim, Mulheres de Conforto ou Marcha de Morte de Bataan. Pau no cu deles.

@vicky1219757 @cherryPayment 我感觉xfab预期没有sivers好

@cherryPayment 等这波情绪退去，回撤一些再开始建仓，就像xfab🤣

Serenity的影响力依然是巨大的！ 在周五谈论到 $CCXI 后，当天涨幅高达11.41%，然后在今天的夜盘涨幅依然是17.53%！ 而 $sive 作为他最看好的标的会如何表现😏

@yx53834975 第一象限的

泰国导游嚣张威胁中国游客：我让你回不了中国…… 骗华人的永远是华人.

@PUPI6965 @fxccxi @JohnZhangSV 还以为是二战时期吗，日本现在哪来的资本

@fxccxi @JohnZhangSV 日本一個國家就可以對付中共了，再加上台灣菲律賓等國家，可以完滅中共

今天川普接受采访时两次谈到习近平 视频一：谁是他心中最最伟大的世界级领导人，川普首推习近平 视频二：习近平的哪一点最让他钦佩，他说习近平本可以让12艘驱逐舰为油轮护航，冲破封锁线，取得历史性成就。但习近平在他的请求下未介入伊朗战争。 ——不禁让人怀疑：如果习近平攻打台湾，川普怎么办？

@jiasuholic @iPaulCanada 限量又要被黄牛抢走，放量又要超售，还是建议把票价提高吧，这样总有人嫌贵不去人就变少了

@iPaulCanada 明明是严重超售，导致资源不够分配，优速通又放大了这点。 这也能站迪士尼，骂游客也真是见了鬼了。

上海迪士尼，因长时间排队，引发游客对速通卡不用排队的不满，甚至有女子还鼓动前面普票的游客冲进去！ 花钱买时间，天经地义，你不想排队也可以去卖速通卡啊。

@rxp93171 @madcat009 美军要是走了，金将军先按耐不住了

@madcat009 是日本人发动了侵略战争并且否认了南京大屠杀，在他们的历史课本里完全没有这段文字记载，韩国只要把驻韩美军切掉，中韩可以深度合作了

한중일 장점: 뭉치면 존나쎔 한중일 단점: 절대 안뭉쳐짐

@jukan05 这不应该是零和博弈

When I visited Computex, Ayar Labs treated SIVE not as something they rely on exclusively, but more as one option among several. I still haven’t seen any third-party or authoritative data showing that SIVE is superior to its competitors.

@H17Rau8QI7rSXKu @Aries_Gff @BoluoEye 你考过吗，傻逼

@Aries_Gff @BoluoEye 傻逼，才考完记不住自己选的什么，你还考个锤子。

@2_dang @artinmemes 他们连白毛的皮毛都不会看，只知道跟买，要是买了没有马上涨，就说被割韭菜了

@artinmemes 这些人的脑回路就是meme币的玩法，只看懂白毛的皮毛，根本不理解美股为什么涨，所以会有这种抢开盘的低级玩法

回溯一下今天白毛女的乌龙事件，他发文是13:42，英诺激光上涨是13:44 中间2分钟，不是秒涨，不像量化团队 受害者大概率是信号群里蹲消息的高级散户，类似下面这种，太相信机器人了

@yifaer_chen 能看你买的啥吗

美股咋啦这是，今天又暴跌，我当日盈亏已经超过20万了就现在。 我只有三倍做空纳指是涨的😅😅 是不是听说老中买不了美股之后，市场缺乏流动性就崩溃了😭😭😭

@Simipandaface The time is 6.2

$SiVE , good news ladies and gents, Institutional ownership has shown up for JP Morganchase as they crossed the 5% mandatory reporting threshold. Official form: mfn.se/cis/a/fi-se/fi…