M Fantasy Football

Naked Burrow, Stafford, & Prescott is the biggest edge in best ball.

@ooooftw I would guess somewhere between 10-18% chance to advance R1 and a big uphill battle to advance beyond that.

@m_ffootball disagree

the reports of Zero RB's death were greatly exaggerated

@CareerPPGLab @ffdataroma So would you rather your players get drafted in the second round than the late first?

@ffdataroma Early 1st- 17.3 Late 1st- 11.5 2nd- 11.9 3rd- 8.0 Late 1st are much closer to 3rds than early 1st. I would argue Jadarian Price is much closer to those 3rd round RB prospects than people want to admit. But regardless his Late 1st Round comps alone should be scary.

Not trying to quote dunk but this brings up some of my main issues with the Jadarian Price debate. For one, pattern matching is just a poor way to evaluate IMO. Every situation is different and this highlights clear outliers rather than the norm (7 examples since 2018). On that note, 4 out of 7 of these guys didn’t come near Price’s capital, so they’re pretty irrelevant here. And most of these backfields had much more established competition than 2026 Seattle does. Not to mention, I would argue that 5 of these 7 outcomes would’ve been solid to strong picks in round 6 of drafts. CEH would’ve been a smash year 1 in round 6. The two semi-comparable backfields (if you really want to pattern match) are SEA and NE 2018 (R1 back w/ minimal established competition). But Michel had a solid season there so not even sure that’s a comparison those arguing against Price would want to make. If you really want to bet on Holani becoming the next James White or Emanuel Wilson becoming the next Carson, go for it. But by no means should that be viewed as a likely outcome. And I get the prospect strength issue, I have my own model which did not peg Price as a good 1st round pick (as did any model). He’s not the best prospect, but there’s a reason draft capital is close to as predictive as any model you’ll find. It generally predicts talent quite well, and it determines volume pretty consistently (at least early on in careers). At a 6th round ADP, Price does not have to be some stud prospect to hit big in year 1. He just needs to be good enough to earn volume in this offense.

@JakobSanderson Agreed, don’t think this affects Etienne much at all. Etienne would not have received his massive contract if Kamara could noticeably cut into his workload.

I'm sitting on 2% ETN but really don't think Kamara will make much of an impact Etienne is a far more explosive player and Kamara doesn't even play pass downs anymore (pass pro + washed) I'd wager he gets a few legacy touches early and then gets phased out entirely soon after

@NFL_Tstrack “Edge”

The edge remains strong.

@taketheunderzet 😂 solid team, good luck.

@m_ffootball Excuse me do you not see the RB1 Javonte "CMC Jr" Williams

Anyone have a later Dak in BBM?

@FAmmiranteTFJ All depends on Braelon Allen…

Absolute smash pick

@ffdataroma I have almost 0 Allen so far through 400+ post-draft drafts, but with the James Cook news and his falling ADP, he’s popping up as a smash pick.

Another recent faller I’ve noticed is Josh Allen, who I’ve now clicked multiple times in mid round 4 (could be anecdotal as ADP hasn't dropped). Allen in this range feels like a smash, and the opportunity cost as opposed to an early-mid R3 pick is much more appealing. Allen has finished as the QB1 or QB2 in fantasy points in EACH of the last SIX years. I understand the passing volume concerns, but Allen has already dealt with near league low pass rates in the past three years (bottom 6 each year) and the FP production hasn't faltered. The rushing floor is just so strong with the goal line role he has in such a potent offenses (1 of 2 QBs above 40% inside the 5 rush rate since 2021, per @FantasyPtsData). He's also top 2 in rushing TDs in this time (54, 12+ in each of L3 seasons!) and top 5 in rush YPG among QBs. The passing volume concerns are fair given his far and away QB1 price, but they're probably overblown. Even with a 31st in NFL pass rate last year, Allen was still 9th in passing TDs and 11th in passing yards. We know there's room for much more should the pass rate climb some, and combined with the almost certain rushing production, gives Allen an unmatched ceiling/likelihood of hitting said ceiling. Into round 4, I'll start grabbing a lot more shares of a guy who we've seen be one of the most valuable players in fantasy multiple times over the past half decade. The opportunity cost in this range becomes a lot less worrisome when you're drafting him over the Ladd, Egbuka, or Tet types as opposed to the Rashee, Olave, Devonta range.

7 RBs through the first 9. #LearnAboutIt

@JustinMacmahan Always been true, a big misconception people have.

I often say it’s fine to draft identical teams in Best Ball because of pod luck. You may need 6 identical bullets to get 1 through to the Finals. I sure wish I drafted my Big Scramble team in The Scramble as well. Could’ve been sweating a double takedown

@Pat_Thorman The hamstring should be added against the Tyson side but overall very accurate, should be back to back.

Aside from conflicting pre-draft evaluations, four draft slots (in the top 8), and vibes ...why does Jordyn Tyson come with at least a half-round discount on Carnell Tate? It ain't their environment...

(The entire Chargers offense is very overdrafted)

FFPC Best Ball has such a strong edge. It’s like half the draft room has never played best ball before!

@MKE1289 @WhosManIsThis24 @Diablo_II The projections are very off still. Fails to accurate account for ceiling/floor and all these other factors.

@WhosManIsThis24 @Diablo_II If I remember correctly, Deebo is considered a zero. I wonder how much he updates the projections.

On an absolute heater with drafting elite builds this week, per @Diablo_II and the BBMDB profile tool bbmdb.com

@FAmmiranteTFJ 4 year college player. Massive year 1. Letdown/overdrafted in in year 2.

@m_ffootball What is the cycle that you are referring to

Smash pick

Who scores more points, Travis Hunter running 60% of routes or Ryan Flourney/Andrei Iosivas running 70% of routes? All 3 have similar injury upside.

@smitchell17 Maybe the best Sean Mitchell take I’ve seen.

You want to know who I think is the ABSOLUTE worst pick on the board currently? 🤔 Not going to be a crowd pleaser on this one, but here it goes... No other than: ADP: 75.3 - Quentin Johnston (and it's not really close)