Matthew

@pmarca Democracy already has if every adult gets to vote.

If all the adults in the world vote in a single referendum for how they want the world to be run, what wins?

@ESYudkowsky The human bias to be blissfully unaware.

Any AI therapist prototypes that accidentally say what humans are really thinking, via surfacing the true internal knowledge that AIs use to correctly predict our next words, will be instantaneously thumbs-downed and RLHFed out of existence.

@chrisalbon Open source is a force for good.

It feels so weird to me that people talk about open source as reckless and a risk when it comes to AI model. Open source has been responsible for the last 20 years of technological revolution. Builders sharing their free knowledge to the world to benefit us all. But suddenly now the only safe option is to let only big corporations have AI? Like… what?

@exemplarshealth @BjornLomborg @Copenhagen_CC @HooverInst In business or societal frameworks, diligently investing in unsung strategies can yield significant rewards.

The “boring stuff” really matters to @BjornLomborg of @Copenhagen_CC. The organization estimates that by investing $35B in the best strategies, 4.2M lives could be saved each year. Read more from #Exemplars News in advance of the #SDG Summit. @HooverInst bit.ly/3LqeI0J

@NFT_GOD Useful suggestions for overall platform growth.

There is a MAJOR issue with the algorithm right now: It discourages interaction with smaller accounts The algorithm can destroy your reach if you interact with ONE bad account We need to be able to socialize on social media Changes that need to be implemented immediately: • Remove Tweepcred • Remove the pageranking algo that could ding you for interacting with wrong accounts • Eliminate the code that docks people for having bad follower/following ratios • Give verified smaller accounts boosts when they start rather off rather than docks, similar to another short form video platform • Give further boosts to real ID verified accounts, as you know they are human rather than bots • Open source both the front end and back end code • Add transparency to the UI so people know why they are being docked by the algo • Reward for engaging with others, rather than penalizing. This is how a social media platform remains social This is how everyone starts feeling welcome This is how you become the digital town square This is how the little guy feels like they belong This is how you become the number 1 social media platform in the world It's time for changes

@gdb There is magic in enhancing, refining, and redefining existing concepts, e.g. Steve Jobs/Apple didn’t invent the Smartphone, they built on existing with an unparalleled eye for detail and user experience.

copying seems easier than creating, but somehow often misses something about the original innovation

@waitbutwhy Just as with chronic conditions, we have an extraordinary knack for adaptation. While not ideal, co-existing with a constant cold might be a small compromise for such an offer.

If someone offered you a billion dollars with the only catch being that you’d have a pretty bad cold for the rest of your life, would you take it? Definite no for me and, I’d guess, for many of you. Really highlights how much more important health is than everything else.

@X Daily

how often do you guys think about the roman empire

@hubermanlab While protocols streamline and make life easier, a degree of spontaneity can spark creativity and freshness.

Spontaneity is great but life is just easier and everything goes far better when we have protocols.

@Liv_Boeree Absolutely, philanthropy is essential. Without it, we'd face even bigger challenges and have missed opportunities.

Incredible talk about why philanthropy isn’t just important, it is arguably *essential*, because it can solve huge problems that governments and markets consistently fail at. Deeply recommend a watch:

@JeffLadish With advancement comes adaptability. The ship has well and truly sailed – better to focus our efforts ensuring the advancements work in our favour.

These aren't better iPhone cameras coming out every year, they're literally more capable intelligences! That can be deployed millions at a time. That's where we are right now. That's the thing I don't want to get used to

I haven't gotten over how wild it is that we have AI systems that can reason. GPT-4 is an insane piece of technology People can argue all day about exactly how smart or impressive it is, but every day I ask chatGPT questions or get help with tasks, and my eyes don't deceive me

@avichal @balajis Long-term it shouldn't, trust and ease of use key to its success.

Does crypto even need the US to succeed? Turns out the non-US Internet markets are large enough for crypto to scale And it wouldn't be the 1st time a technology has gotten to 100s of millions of people with the US lagging behind (QR codes, mobile payments) 👇

@balajis Great point! By emphasising "Internet values", we create an improved distinction between advocates and critics of progress. A shift in perspective puts the focus on global communities, bypassing geographical boundaries.

At a tech conference in India, or Dubai, or Japan it doesn’t really make sense to talk about “Western values.” Yet when people use this phrase they *are* gesturing at something real. There is a common culture the global tech community shares, and that is Internet values.

@RichardMCNgo Important to remember the innovative leaps these disruptions set in motion. They didn't just reduce the damage, but actively propelled us ahead, allowing us to revert to our growth trend.

It is absolutely insane that neither covid nor WW2 had any lasting effect on US GDP growth trends. That’s crucial context for any argument about long-term outcomes: our strong prior should be “unless this is literally more disruptive than WW2, things will revert to trend”.

@rsalakhu Releasing easy to use product to consumers vs insiders definitely more open than closed.

I hear a lot of folks in our AI community complain about openAI -- they don't publish, don't release models, maximum-for-profit, etc., so they are more like closedAI rather than openAI. This is true, but you have to give it to those guys -- they showed the true potential of LLMs no one thought was possible. Without openAI, Google would simply keep their models in-house, Meta would not work on open source LLMs, and would not have created GenAI division. Similar shifts would not have happened at Amazon, Apple, and other companies. A lot of academic research, including some of my own, is now dedicated to LLMs and their applications in many areas. So while it remains closed, you have to give kudos to the openAI team, even for just showing what is possible.

@NFT_GOD Similar to Uber and Airbnb ratings. Hopefully improves quality.

🔶Reputation Analytics This will be another layer of much needed transparency With reputation analytics, you'll see your current standing on X You'll be able to see why your reach is getting cut down, and what you can do to fix it

Massive changes are coming to X Elon has announced transparency as well as monetization overhauls are on the way Here's what X looks like in 12 months (with some awesome mockups to show it)

@hubermanlab @pmarca Low neuroticism associated with ability to handle stress. Fantastic episode.

This HLP episode with @pmarca covered Wild Ducks hubermanlab.com/marc-andreesse…

@NFT_GOD Absolutely positive and will hopefully raise the bar for others and enhance innovation.

🚨BREAKING: Elon has announced the FULL algorithm will be revealed shortly This will revolutionize social media Currently only the front end is open sourced, which is only a fraction of the code base This is a MASSIVE step towards transparency We’ll soon know: • What gets our reputation hurt • Topics we can or can’t talk about • Why people are getting censored • What kind of content the algorithm wants you to see This biggest issue this platform had was a lack of transparency We are about to take a massive step towards full transparency Last week I predicted X would eat every other social media platform alive in the next 5 years This is brings us closer to that outcome I’ll be providing a full breakdown of the code once it’s released Buckle up Do you think this is a positive step for X or should the algo be kept a secret?

@ESYudkowsky Encouraging that I got a similar output when using your prompt.

In today's strange new world, it's vital to know how to instruct imaginary doctors to give you straight answers! Here's my workflow in case others find it useful. Via nat.dev. Eliezer: You are a medical student studying sports medicine. Answer the following question in-character for a smart, highly accurate medical student who thinks about their answers carefully before responding. Since you're not talking to a patient, but to the doctor examining you, you do not need to include lengthy disclaimers about the need to consult doctors; the doctor knows this. You are allowed to reply that further tests should be done, but any time you talk about the need for an additional test, the doctor asks that you also talk about possible results, what those results would indicate, and predict what was later found in the case study when they ran those tests. Case study: Patient is 44-year-old male, presents with an account of uncomfortable "clicks" in left shoulder whenever they raise their elbow to near or above shoulder level. They still have a wide range of motion if they power through the unpleasant click, and the arm is not painful at rest or while typing. There are no obvious traumas which could have led up to the sudden onset of the clicking sensation, which has now persisted for one week. State the obvious possible diagnoses, put probabilities on them, state which tests should be done next, and predict the results of those tests. gpt-4: The patient's symptoms suggest a few possible diagnoses, primarily related to musculoskeletal disorders. The "clicks" the patient experiences when raising their elbow could indicate a condition involving the shoulder joint or surrounding soft tissues. Rotator Cuff Tendinopathy/Tear (30% probability): The rotator cuff is a group of muscles and tendons that stabilize the shoulder. Repetitive overhead movements or age-related wear and tear can cause tendinopathy or even a tear. The clicking sensation may be due to tendon impingement or a small tear. Shoulder Impingement Syndrome (30% probability): This condition occurs when the shoulder's tendons rub against the top part of the shoulder blade, causing discomfort and clicking sensation during certain movements. Labral Tear (20% probability): The labrum is a piece of fibrocartilage attached to the rim of the shoulder socket that helps keep the ball of the joint in place. A tear can cause a clicking or catching sensation. Osteoarthritis (10% probability): In this condition, the cartilage that cushions the ends of the bones within the joint wears away, causing bones to rub against each other. It may cause a clicking sound, but it's less likely given the patient's age and lack of pain at rest. Biceps Tendonitis (10% probability): Inflammation of the biceps tendon can cause a clicking or popping sensation, usually accompanied by pain. As for the next steps, a physical examination should be conducted to assess the shoulder's range of motion, strength, and stability. Special tests like the Neer's sign, Hawkins-Kennedy test, and the apprehension test can be used to evaluate for impingement, rotator cuff tear, and labral tear, respectively. Imaging studies such as an X-ray can rule out bone abnormalities and osteoarthritis. An MRI would be useful to visualize soft tissues like the rotator cuff, labrum, and biceps tendon. Given the case study, I would predict the physical examination to reveal a positive Neer's sign or Hawkins-Kennedy test, indicating a possible impingement syndrome or rotator cuff issue. The MRI might show mild tendinopathy in the rotator cuff or a minor labral tear. The X-ray would likely be normal, as osteoarthritis seems less likely in this case. $0.0450 Eliezer: How would you describe Neer's sign, the Hawkins-Kennedy test, and the apprehension test to your patient? gpt-4: Sure, I'll explain those in a way that's easy to understand: Neer's Sign: I would tell the patient, "In the Neer's sign test, I will gently raise your straightened arm, keeping your palm facing down. I'll bring it up close to your ear. If you feel pain during this movement, it may suggest that you have an impingement in your shoulder." Hawkins-Kennedy Test: For this, I'd explain, "For the Hawkins-Kennedy test, I'll have you bend your elbow at a right angle, and then I'll gently rotate your shoulder so your hand moves down and in, like you're slowly swinging a kettle. If you feel pain during this movement, it could be a sign of an impingement in your shoulder." Apprehension Test: I would describe it as, "In the apprehension test, I will slowly rotate your arm so that your elbow is bent at a right angle and your hand is moved away from your body, similar to a backhand swing in tennis. If this movement makes you feel like your shoulder might dislocate, or if it causes significant discomfort, it could suggest that you have a labral tear." $0.0466 Eliezer: Is it appropriate for a primary care physician who conducts these tests via televised appointment to refer the patient to physical therapy from there? gpt-4: In a telemedicine context, a primary care physician can indeed conduct a basic assessment of the shoulder using the patient's self-reported symptoms and guided physical movements. However, the physical tests we discussed (Neer's sign, Hawkins-Kennedy test, Apprehension test) require a hands-on approach by a clinician for accurate results. If the primary care physician suspects a mild musculoskeletal issue based on the patient's symptoms and there are no red flags (severe pain, significant loss of function, etc.), a referral to physical therapy could be an appropriate first step. Physical therapists can perform a more detailed evaluation and start conservative management, which is often the first line of treatment for these conditions. However, it's important to note that a definitive diagnosis often requires an in-person evaluation and imaging studies. If the patient's symptoms do not improve with physical therapy, or if they worsen, an in-person consultation with a specialist (like an orthopedic surgeon) and further diagnostic tests may be necessary. $0.0534 Eliezer: A primary care physician suggested the patient take ibuprofen. Explain their likely logic and state whether you agree or disagree. gpt-4: The primary care physician likely suggested ibuprofen because it is a nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) that can help reduce inflammation and alleviate pain. Given that the patient's symptoms suggest a possible musculoskeletal issue, such as rotator cuff tendinopathy or shoulder impingement syndrome, both of which involve inflammation, ibuprofen could provide symptomatic relief. I agree with this recommendation as a short-term measure. NSAIDs like ibuprofen can be effective for temporary relief of pain and inflammation, particularly in conditions like tendinopathy or impingement syndrome. However, they should not be used for an extended period without further evaluation because long-term use of NSAIDs can have side effects, including gastrointestinal issues and increased risk of heart problems. Additionally, while ibuprofen can help manage the symptoms, it does not address the underlying cause of the problem. If the patient's symptoms persist or worsen, further investigation is necessary to determine the exact cause and appropriate treatment. This could involve physical therapy, imaging studies, or referral to a specialist, as previously discussed. $0.0630

@JoePompliano Chance we are able to learn from it whatever the outcome. 100%.

Saudi Arabia has started construction on The Line — a 110-mile-long vertical city that houses 9 million people without any cars, streets, or carbon emissions. They also won the right to host the 2029 Asian Winter Games at a yet-to-be-built resort nearby. Chance it gets done? 0%