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AI is supposed to be killing Figma.
95% Fortune 500 penetration. 136% NDR. $1B revenue growing 40%.
Some death.
Here's why the narrative is completely wrong and the numbers to prove it:
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Matthew Mastando
727 posts
Matthew Mastando
@mattmastando
PM at HubSpot, investor by night. Most tech equity research is written by people who never shipped a product. Writing about the next decade's compounders.
TradingView Katılım Nisan 2024
134 Takip Edilen227 Takipçiler
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 SEC delays plan to allow blockchain-based tokenized stocks.
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$INTU in the spotlight this week
Earnings Wednesday after market close
Watching TurboTax growth vs 8% guide
Credit Karma sustainability after a 23% Q2
Management guidance
2026 tax season was strong — refunds up 11% YoY. $HRB crushed its tax season earnings
Re-rating is in the cards but guidance will be the biggest factor
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@ChrisCamillo Is there a stock market in this dystopia?
Or does no one have jobs so there’s no need for a market
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The astonishing part is that the guy running the most resource-rich fund of “smart money” in the world, apparently didn’t see this coming until last Friday.
Brett Caughran@FundamentEdge
A big pivot from Ken Griffin on AI: “Number one is, in the last few months, there has been a step change in the productivity of the AI toolkit. It is profoundly more powerful than it was just nine months ago. And for us at Citadel, that has allowed us to unleash a much broader array of use cases for AI. And it has been really interesting to watch, to be blunt, work that we would usually do with people with masters and PhDs in finance over the course of weeks or months being done by AI agents over the course of hours or days. These are not these are not mid-tier white collar jobs. These are like extraordinarily high skilled jobs being, I'm going to pick a word, automated by agentic AI. And I gotta tell you, I went home one Friday actually fairly depressed by this because you could just see how this was going to have such a dramatic impact on society. When you witness it in your own four walls, when you see work that used to be man years of work being done in days or weeks, it's like, wow, like that's the first time I've seen real impact in our four walls.” This echoes my own experience with agents and the conversations I am having with students, friends & clients. The toolkit has dramatically transformed and it feels like in finance, for the first time, AI is real.
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@BrianFeroldi Having a concrete plan in writing will always give the best chance of fighting your emotions at the absolute worst time.
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Whenever you make an investment, write down:
💸The reasons you bought it
⚖️The valuation
💎Your intended holding period
👎What would make you sell
This information will be incredibly useful later
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@KobeissiLetter Definitely over leveraged but also significantly more money in the system today compared to previous periods
So not apples to apples
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Investors have never used this much leverage:
US margin debt surged +$83 billion in April, to a record $1.3 trillion.
Over the last 12 months, margin debt has risen +$453 billion, or +53%.
As a result, margin debt is up to a record 5.2% of US GDP.
This is ~3 percentage points above both the pre-2008 Financial Crisis level and well above the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak.
Market leverage is through the roof.
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@modestproposal1 😂
It’s just waiting for the IPO and it’s gonna take everyone’s RSUs for itself
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$FIG update:
Took out near term swing high. We'll wait to see how some candles close around here.
Earnings were an absolute smash. Expecting continuation at this point.
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Positions up 17% from entry, options will open up +150% if market holds current price.
Will be waiting for earnings call at 5PM EST to follow up with more details
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$FIG Q1 2026 Results:
Revenue $333M, +46% YoY (accelerating for 2nd consecutive quarter)
Non-GAAP op income $52M (16% margin)
FCF $89M (27% margin)
Net Dollar Retention: 139% (2-yr high)
690K paid customers, +54% YoY
FY26 guidance raised to $1.42–1.43B
AI tailwinds are real — MCP WAUs 5x QoQ, 60% of enterprise customers using Figma Make weekly.
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@LizAnnSonders The ironic part is the economy has been growing regardless of inflation, geopolitical conflict, tariffs etc
We don’t need rate cuts (at least with the current data) to support economic growth
Interesting to see if we’re about to get a rotation out of the de-dollarization trade
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Optimism about the future rebounded in May per Empire Manufacturing Index…six-month outlook rose 14 points to 33.5 vs. 19.6 prior
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We need higher rates for longer
The dollar doesn’t need to get weaker, it needs to get stronger.
The de-dollarization trade is so unbelievably crowded
The next logical move is a rotation back to rate bearing assets.
We’ve had months of pure euphoria on metals and equities.
These things end at some point, but no one wants to be first to exit so they end up giving back all the gains
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Our 5th warning:
The bond market crisis is intensifying.
The US 10Y Note Yield is now officially above 4.55% for the first time since May 2025.
After weeks of euphoria, the market is beginning to react today.
As we have been stating for the last few weeks, the current situation in the bond market is unsustainable.
We are now above levels seen when President Trump implemented a "90-day tariff pause" in April 2025 due to a collapsing bond market.
Furthermore, the market now sees a 60%+ chance that the Fed's next move is an interest rate HIKE, with rate cuts entirely priced-out.
We expect to see 7%+ mortgages next, all as auto loan delinquencies have reached 32-year highs.
Inflation is back and higher rates are coming.
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@Polymarket Figma crushed earnings:
x.com/mattmastando/s…
Matthew Mastando@mattmastando
$FIG Q1 2026 Results: Revenue $333M, +46% YoY (accelerating for 2nd consecutive quarter) Non-GAAP op income $52M (16% margin) FCF $89M (27% margin) Net Dollar Retention: 139% (2-yr high) 690K paid customers, +54% YoY FY26 guidance raised to $1.42–1.43B AI tailwinds are real — MCP WAUs 5x QoQ, 60% of enterprise customers using Figma Make weekly.
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$ADBE wanted to buy $FIG for $20B.
It's now worth $10.
Earnings tonight. 👀
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@FromValue Honestly a kind of insane switch up
And I don’t think it really helps everyone. If anything more consistent data stream would be better
But that would democratize the financial system more and they’ll probably never do that
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They have checked their portfolio.
Now show them semi returns.
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@mattmastando @KobeissiLetter China pretty much steals our tech, so I'm not sure we'd get a whole lot back from them in that exchange.
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BREAKING: President Trump says China's President Xi told him that China will not provide military equipment to Iran and expressed support for a peace deal.
Trump also says that President Xi has offered to mediate tensions in an effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
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@insane_analyst @PythiaR These are the types of IPOs that cook the market
Think Coinbase 2021
Local tops
Will be extremely interesting to see if it can break the typical IPO sell off trend
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Prepare yourself for the most entertaining activist investor campaign of all time.
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@gabrielmmuelle1 @KobeissiLetter Yep
Fiat will always have this fault
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@mattmastando @KobeissiLetter We need sound money ASAP 🫡🪙🥈🗽
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Money supply is skyrocketing:
Global money supply is now up to a record $121.9 trillion.
Over the last 2 years, money supply has soared +$17.1 trillion, or +16%.
This also marks a +$27 trillion increase, or +28%, since the 2022 low.
This means that global money supply is surging +7% to +8% a year.
Meanwhile, US M2 money supply jumped +$1 trillion YoY, or +4.6%, to a record $22.7 trillion.
Money supply growth is accelerating.
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Doesn’t feel like it should be an unpopular opinion.
One of the biggest issues/open questions is how AI is going to be properly monetized so businesses can accrue value and revenue.
It’s stil the early days of deploying pricing strategies, change should be expected. These companies will need to pivot from burning cash to positive cash flow at some point
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Apparently an unpopular opinion, but I don't think Anthropic owes anyone heavily subsidized tokens for their third party app.
Theo - t3.gg@theo
I can't help but feel personally burned by the Claude Code changes announced today. We put so much work into wrapping the (atrocious) Claude Agent SDK in T3 Code. It was the ONLY path they supported, so we made it work. It was hell. Now our users are getting their rate limits cut by 40x, despite us doing everything right. I listened to the Claude Code team. I had my issues with their direction, but I trusted them and took them at their word. I will never make that mistake again. Until we see significant change, it is safe to assume any statement from an Anthropic employee is a lie on a timer. The rug will be pulled, no matter how many promises are made beforehand.
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@Beth_Kindig Committed spending has been a consistent topic of interest in earnings calls and financial analysis
I’m more curious to see what ends up being the ROI of the spend and how AI companies effectively monetize all this build out.
Maybe obvious maybe not
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Anthropic has reportedly committed to spending $200 billion with Google Cloud over the next five years, which would account for more than 40% of Google’s backlog.
$GOOG $MSFT $AMZN $AVGO
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