Matt Orr

TPRR stabilizes after 200 routes, YPRR after 300 routes IIFC so this is actually not a small sample. However his usage is the issue, it doesn't sound predictive. We saw this before with Skyy Moore, where Andy just gave him all the designed volume and boosted his YPRR but Burden is better than Skyy.

This stat is being wildly overblown. Most players on this list had over twice as many routes as Burden's 230. So, let's start with the small sample size, which matters on multiple levels. The first as a core statistical principle that the smaller your sample, the less confident you can be. But Burden's limited sample is itself a concern. If he's so good, why was he just a part-time player all year? (He hit a 55% snap share only once in the 15 regular-season games Olamide Zaccheaus was healthy.) Perhaps this should matter more than his per-route efficiency. Because small-sample efficiency in this role has misled us before. Kalif Raymond put up very similar numbers when he was Ben Johnson's part-time slot WR. Hilariously, from 2022-2023, Raymond had the exact same YPRR as Ja'Marr Chase (2.13). Increase our sample to include the postseason (where Burden averaged a pathetic 1.14 YPRR) and Burden falls a sizeable distance from his spot on this list. Go a step further and exclude trick plays (over 10% of his yards on just two plays) and screens, and he's not even the most efficient rookie on his team. [stats & chart courtesy of @FantasyPtsData]

@micsolana I built a v1 here: chromewebstore.google.com/detail/the-rec…

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@politicstcan 3% vs 12% sh% yeah true

@mattworr I think Cousins being there just happens to coincide with a Pinto cold streak because Cousins's metrics have been solid. We also have seen years past where he goes super hot and super cold

Pinto might be the Jaccob Slavin of forwards, for better or worse. Elite shutdown skillset...but it's pretty much all he does. Shuts down. And because he's not actually stripping possession and getting pucks going the other way, not much quality gets generated shift-to-shift

The only similarity between ai and covid is that this moment in ai feels similar to the moment in covid when forecasters (like @balajis) first figured out that covid was going to be massive and the public was unaware/didn’t believe. Most don’t know coding has been effectively automated and that every other knowledge job is about to get automated as well.

AI is not COVID in three keys ways: 1: It's bigger. Much bigger. 2: It's durable. COVID was a wave. It came and went. AI will compound. 3: We have a choice. This is important, and the main reason to read the article. With COVID, everyone played defense. With AI, we can choose to play offense. Don't let AI wash over you. Put it to work! The best time to make that choice is right now.

@Louis_Boulet_ Sportlogic who would have this data has them 8th in power rankings x.com/tsnhockey/stat…

The Sens have won three in a row, with Linus Ullmark shining in his return. So what does the team have to do to continue this stretch, and why might these trends not show in traditional data? Find out here 👇

@MattPRD lmao found this ones in founder mode fr

I'm building The Record to solve this problem. Here's how: - We use an LLM council + wisdom of the crowds to analyze the truth of individual claims (with scores weighted by model/users historical track record of predicting truth) - When a source has >25 claims, we aggregate their scores to create a "Trust Battery" which gives you a real quantifiable metric for how reputable they are - Use this dataset to create and sell media products for consumers (newsletters, fact checking tools) and businesses (data for ai labs) We've scored some of mainstream media so far and have seen some interesting results - wapo appears to be pulling away from the crowd in terms of reputability. Would love to get your feedback.

AI aggregating news in its current state is very dangerous the core problem is analyzing the reputability of a claim (for example, grok regularly calls me solana ceo on its summaries) it can look at likes, but likes can be gamed it can look at views, but those can be gamed it can look at the number of different accounts saying something similar, but that can be gamed it can combine the above with some first principles thinking, but for "news" events that can't actually be confirmed/denied, it will get skewed by sentiment it can try, in some way, to verify authority, i.e this person is the ceo of such and such protocol and they might have better information, but then i) you need to submit a bunch of info on your x account, and then ii) the authorities can also lie! best is probably to skew it to be extra conservative until it has at least an 80% confidence threshold based on a mix of public sentiment, authoritative sources, wide internet search, and perhaps even prediction markets but the current state is actively misleading

@tobi @globeandmail we need trust batteries for media to hold them accountable for posting nonsense

@globeandmail This is such utter nonsense.

Opinion: We need to prepare for the possibility that the U.S. uses military coercion against Canada theglobeandmail.com/opinion/articl…

We "fact checked" them with our transparent truth scoring system (LLM council + wisdom of the crowds) and they're sitting at 78% True overall. Not good enough. Wapo is looking better at 86% True overall. However neither compares to @TheRecordApp, where every claim made is >90% True. Media is a large highly fragmented industry w low NPS right? @TheRecordApp's vertically integrated solution will win. Would appreciate your feedback Keith!

@alexandr_wang Have they fact checked anything in the last decade?

it’s true, i can code nyt didn’t fact check that one 🤷‍♂️

@TheRecordApp therecordapp.com/statements/0db…

This is a perfect example of why people do not trust the NYTimes anymore. @TheRecordApp's transparent truth scoring system rated this claim 3% True and we have the NYT's overall trust battery at 78%. That is not good enough to earn people's trust.

@MattHarmon_BYB I like it descriptively, less so for predictive value. Good way to answer the question of did you convert your opportunity into production. Probably not super predictive cause it depends on what opportunity you were given.

I don't really find yards per target to be all that good of a stat but since Coker and Pearsall lead the class (min 20 targets) in it by a lot, maybe we can allow it just this once. x.com/mattworr/statu…

It's just one datapoint, and there are many variables to explain why, but it's pretty shocking that, with three weeks left in the season, none of the WRs from the much-hyped 2024 draft class are pacing for a 1,000-yard season. Some other strange notes: - Only Malik Nabers, who hasn't played in forever, has a yards per route run figure over 1.8 among the big names - Troy Franklin leads the class in overall half PPR fantasy points this year

@MattHarmon_BYB All I see is Coker with more yards per target than Nabers and it looks like everyone else too

Introducing The Record - media you can trust. Media is broken. Trust is at all time lows. We’re solving this with AI and wisdom of the crowds.

@ScottBarrettDFB We need a @FantasyPts WR score combining separation, yac and catch point. Could be the most predictive metric non production stat for YPRR.

George Pickens is almost impossibly good. He's a top-5 separator in the league.[1] He's a top-5 receiver after the catch.[2][3] And he's *the best* WR in the league at the catch point.[4] 2025 WR/TE Leaders in Separation Win Rate [1] + min. 100 routes 1. Davante Adams (38.6%) 2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (31.3%) 3. CeeDee Lamb (34.3%) 4. George Pickens (30.9%) 🔥 2025 WR/TE Leaders in Yards After Contact per Reception [2] + min. 35 catches 1. Khalil Shakir (3.89) 2. George Pickens (2.63) 🔥 3. Puka Nacua (2.61) 2025 WR/TE Leaders in Missed Tackles Forced [3] t1. Zay Flowers (16) t1. Khalil Shakir (16) 3. Ja'Marr Chase (14) 4. Quentin Johnston (14) 5. George Pickens (12) 🔥 WR/TE Leader in Hero Catches (2024-2025) [4] 1. George Pickens (11) 🔥 t2. Drake London (7) t2. Garrett Wilson (7) S/O to @FantasyPtsData for the dank stats

@j0hnwang @curiouscamilo Why do you think they’re beating Wall St? My guess would be that insider trading is legal?

prediction markets are leading indicators for surfacing alpha aggregated collective intelligence is insanely powerful

@dwainmcfarland @jagibbs_23 You think it’s ok to fade 1st team camp target distribution? I know Gainwells historical TPRR is nowhere near Warrens. It isn’t sitting well in my gut knowing Arthur’s past. steelersdepot.com/2025/08/steele…

@mattworr @jagibbs_23 I have Gainwell projected for work, including targets. It could be a pain for the backfield. But would bet strongly against him leading the backfield in targets. Don’t think he will get enough snaps for that.

Jaylen Warren Reached 30%+ rushing attempts in 14 games over the last two years. In those games he averaged 38% with 13.4 PPG. 👀 Near lock to get over 30%, even if Kaleb Johnson is good. If Johnson is bad, could see 50%+ w/ great receiving profile. Don't give up too soon!

@jagibbs_23 @dwainmcfarland You guys must not have seen the target distribution at camp in 11v11s… Gainwell way ahead of Warren (and Kaleb). Arthur always has a trick or 2 up his sleeve.

@dwainmcfarland Keeps moving up my board

@LauraLoomer @grok is this true?

Biden-Era Holdover Behind Mar-a-Lago Raid Still Employed in Trump Administration loomered.com/2025/07/25/bid…