marc de fondaumiere

Iran was trying to use the North Korean model to get a nuke: create sufficient conventional deterrence so you won’t be challenged in acquiring one (it’s called the Seoul Hostage Problem). This has been explained over and over since day one. Everyone claiming shifting goalposts or no imminent threat has been lying. The reason North Korea was allowed to get nukes is because Seoul (and its 10 million inhabitants) is within artillery and rocket range of North Korea. During the 1994 nuclear crisis, the Clinton administration seriously considered airstrikes on North Korea’s Yongbyon reactor but backed off precisely because of the artillery threat to Seoul. Iran was trying to accomplish the same by stockpiling missiles and drones which would have had the same deterrent effect. The proof is what Iran has been doing in the past month: attacking all its neighbors in order to pressure the US to stop attacking it Beyond this, they were building medium-range ballistic missiles that could reach Paris and London, meaning all of Europe could be held hostage as they built a nuclear bomb. The reason Iran has not built a nuclear weapon until now is not because it couldn’t, but because it knew it would be attacked and denied this capability. So by allowing them to continue developing this conventional deterrence, you would be allowing Iran to get a nuclear weapon. And unlike North Korea, Iran is led by an eschatological death cult Reagan saw nuclear mutually assured destruction (MAD) as both morally bankrupt (because of the innocent-body-count problem) and dangerously fragile because it assumed flawless rationality between adversaries…this means it only takes one irrational actor to destroy the world. Working backwards from the conclusion that Iran’s Islamist regime must never have a nuclear weapon, it was necessary for the US to attack Iran to deny it the conventional capacity to hold the entire eastern hemisphere hostage. Every European leader knows this and behind the scenes praises the US for this action. But they are cowards, held hostage by their own internal Muslim populations, and so adopt these ridiculous public positions. This was never about Israel. And if your argument is that Iran should be allowed to get a nuclear weapon then you are a fool and a traitor to western civilization…you’re a useful idiot

@DonovanTim @NileGardiner Last I looked by elections were political, I think my understanding of British politics is just fine an allows me an opinion, you think because I’m South African that calling me a racist is the ultimate put down. Sadly it says more about you.

@mdefon @NileGardiner You're using comments made in a bye-election to make a political point. Bye-elections are often dirty and not reflective of reality in UK politics. The Ad hominem stands because you've shown you don't fully understand British politics today.

Starmer may have just broken Nato European inaction in the face of the Iranian crisis proves what Americans have always feared of their fair-weather allies telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/03/1…

@DonovanTim @NileGardiner The Greens in Gorton and Denton refers to his issues. Ad hominem aside, the point stands.

@mdefon @NileGardiner Says a guy from South Africa obviously totally unaware that the Muslim population of the UK represents just 6.5% of the population. Racist fuckwit.

@madaboutmarkets @ekwufinance Way too much

@mdefon @ekwufinance Really , so much going around at the moment . Thanks for telling me

This is the end of the petrodollar The deal was that the US would provide the GCC ruling families with military support. In exchange, the ruling families promised to sell their oil in USD and recycle their vast surpluses into US assets. This was crucial for the US, as it had just defaulted on the world by ending the convertibility of USD to gold. With the petrodollar in place, the USD was now backed by oil - the lifeblood of our economy. Now the first war has broken out, the GCC nations have quickly realized that this was a one-sided deal. Allowing US military bases on their soil and letting the US use their airspace and land to launch attacks against Iran has put a target on their backs. Instead of being defended, the US pulled air defense equipment out of the GCC to defend Israel, and now they are being threatened to join the war against Iran or face consequences. Iran is in full control of the Strait of Hormuz and is letting ships through if oil is paid in yuan, not in USD. A decoupling from the US with new defense alliances makes sense for the GCC. This would mean less demand for dollars, less demand for Treasuries, less demand for US equities at a time in which the US badly needs it.

@TheJaundicedEye @Politicsweb It was an inspired move by Cyril to appoint him, an inadvertent Trojan horse that blew the house up from his sheer ineptitude and arrogance. It’s going to be very costly to the DA.

The DA's John Steenhuisen has been handed a court thrashing by Sakeliga, SAAI, and Free State Agriculture over Foot and Mouth Disease. He's proving to be the worst Agriculture minister the ANC has fielded in 32 years. WSM’s column on @Politicsweb. politicsweb.co.za/opinion/the-ou…

Just three months ago I was rabidly against any such notion. The way the entire Western world except for a few notable exceptions has and continues to distance itself from perhaps the most just war of this generation, though, has changed my perspective. Europe needs to be cast to the dogs. Hopefully that will jolt it awake for the first time since 1946 and allow it to leave the Third World and rejoin Western civilisation.

If you ask DA leaders about Bukele and what he has done for safety and security in El Salvador they either claim they don’t know who that is or they fall back on human rights. It’s fascinating.

@Africa4life13 @RenaldoGouws So your answer is no, you can’t refute with facts. Thanks

@mdefon @RenaldoGouws I don't see anything that resembles an ad hominem 'attack', but I guess rightwingers are oversensitive. 🤷‍♀️

This isn't looking good for the DA. Considering you are already being called ANC-Lite. thecapeindependent.com/stellenbosch-c…

@Africa4life13 @RenaldoGouws Can you refute it with facts rather than an ad hominem attack?

@RenaldoGouws It is clear that the Cape Independent is a rightwing newspaper. This article is written by Robert Duigan, a well-known rightwinger and supporter of Cape Independance and Referendum Party (now part of FF+). So I don't think this piece is unbiased at all.

@KwazaUnathi Even inspector Clouseau could have cracked this case.

dailyinvestor.com/energy/126389/… Coal-trucking syndicates profited from disrupting Eskom’s efficient operation of coal conveyor belts and railways that supplied the utility’s power stations with fuel.

@wayneduv @GTalevi And I guess he’d also have to remove himself too.

What do you mean “We are prepared to rise up against criminals.” They are amidst you - within your own party. You don’t have to rise up anywhere, just take action and remove them from positions of power and then lay charges against them….

@LeahK28 @geordinhl Just wait till you try Gallows Hill, took my 17 year old son 4 hours of a school day just to book his learners.

Had a life changing moment today - renewed my driver's license in Cape Town @ Goodwood Licensing Dept. It takes 20 minutes, you just show up, they open early, they're polite and quick. I kid you not. It takes an entire day in Joburg, 1 DAY vs 20 MIN. The DA difference @geordinhl

@madaboutmarkets We’ve been calling exactly this, and without commodities what else is there to invest in here besides a literal handful of non SA Inc stocks.

With no rate cuts and commodities in free fall , are we about to discover the emperor is naked - South Africa bonds and equities

@chrisw_co_za I think you guys may shit your pants at how much vote splitting is about to happen in LGE’s in some areas.

This once again proves the importance of not splitting the opposition vote Ward 7 was an ANC ward. If the VF didn’t split the vote the DA would have had 1006, just enough to win the ward. Instead the PA ( ANC-lite) won instead.

@JacquesMaree73 @geordinhl futures.issafrica.org/blog/2025/The-…

A good piece by @geordinhl on the right and wrong ways to view, label and judge parties and the way they govern. GEORDIN HILL-LEWIS | Beyond left and right in politics businessday.co.za/opinion/2026-0…

@geordinhl @DeanMacpherson @BDliveSA This says it all. futures.issafrica.org/blog/2025/The-…

🇿🇦 In SA the political division is between builders and breakers: ✅ Builders make systems work, keep water flowing, electricity on, make it easier to start a business, embrace enterprise. In this environment, economies grow and people get into work. ❌ Breakers leave us with collapsing services, broken systems, corruption everywhere, they focus on grievance, symbolism, while people get poorer 📲 Full article: businessday.co.za/opinion/2026-0…

@capexitparty Brilliant article

The recent ISS Africa article "The Cape Mirage" warns that Cape Town's success story is fragile—rapid migration, exploding informality, infrastructure strain, and fiscal pressures could turn it into just another dysfunctional African city if we stay tied to national failures. futures.issafrica.org/blog/2025/The-… - the writing is on the wall. This is exactly why the Cape Independence Party - CAPEXIT has been right all along: the Western Cape cannot thrive while shackled to a failing system that drags us down. The time for illusions is over. The Cape deserves better—self-determination, real autonomy, and the chance to build a prosperous, functional future on our own terms. It's not a mirage—it's a warning. Let's choose independence before it's too late. #CapeIndependence #CAPEXIT #VoteCAPEXIT #WesternCapeFuture #SaveTheCape

@TheAtlantic @NatashaMarrian @PhillipsPOBrien Do people honestly think that the US hadn’t war gamed the Strait ??

“U.S. leaders have drastically underestimated the Iranian regime’s ability to survive, adjust, and strike back,” @PhillipsPOBrien argues. theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/03/…