Meatbag Capital LLC

me... with Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, and Grok.

@RealNickMugalli Thanks for putting this together!

🇰🇷 Everyone’s asking if Korea has bottomed. We’ve spent the last few days pulling up all the actual leverage data we can find on Bloomberg and Korean banks purchased data and we can say we’de close to the bottom and might have already bottomed last week. - The debt is coming down no doubt about that. - Margin financing peaked June 24 at 38.6T. As of July 15…34.4T down 11%, back to April levels. But the ratio of margin debt to investor cash rose even as debt fell because custodial funds are draining faster than the debt (down 9.7% vs 7.9%). The remaining investors’ cash cushion is thinning quicker than their leverage. Deleveraging with a shrinking buffer is progress. But we have not seen the capitulation signature there yet maybe in today’s trading. On July 16, retail net bought 4.78T while foreigners and institutions sold 5T combined. True endgame clearing looks like the opposite…retail giving up, custodial funds stabilizing, leveraged ETFs redeemed en masse. Instead, the leveraged ETFs 24T of embedded exposure saw net subscriptions nearly every day this month. Retail stopped borrowing through accounts and kept levering through products. The leverage didn’t leave completely. It changed accounts which is why the govt intervened to stop the listing of new leveraged etfs. Forced liquidations on the 5-day average sits at the 99th percentile of the past decade which is high pressure, but still far below true “liquidation day” thresholds. So the staging…mid to late deleveraging. Explicit debt clearing. Cash buffers not rebuilding. Productized leverage intact. Retail still catching knives and giving up on the technology overall. Why obsess over this instead of price? Because this correction was caused by leverage so it ends when the leverage is actually gone, not when the chart looks cheap. Price drops don’t prove debt got repaid. They just reprice the collateral

Chinese LNG buyers are exploring options to reduce their future reliance on Qatar 🇨🇳 ⚠️ This comes as buyers reassess the long-term risk exposure to the Strait of Hormuz China buyers are seeking non-Persian Gulf supply deals starting in late 2020s bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@ShaleTier7 It all points to one conclusion… get well soon.

This lettuce parasite is terrifying. I’ve been puking for 8 hours straight. It might have been the Western Haynesville wells I looked at this morning though. I’m not sure.

Venture Global Announces Timing of Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call businesswire.com/news/home/2026…

Curious to see how many subs @SemiAnalysis_ has in South Korea and whether they are more or less respected there than KIS, whose spec sales note was apparently a contributing factor to last nights sell off. A modern day Clash of the Titans. Should know in a few hours!

$GLNG: Goldman out with a positive note on Golar. $66 PT. Potential M&A value of $74

@ShaleTier7 Directly and infinitely to the moon (and beyond)

It would honestly be surprising to me if oil ever had a single red day again.

An armada of US LNG shipments are heading to Asia 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 The near-closure of Hormuz has forced Asian LNG importers to scramble for alternatives. US supply has largely filled the gap West>East LNG flows via Cape of Good Hope is at a seasonal high (+80% from last year)

NEW: Venture Global Announces Closing of $1.5 Billion Senior Secured Vessel Financing Facility businesswire.com/news/home/2026…

@business @TheStalwart @tracyalloway Calm down, meatbag.

Jeremy Grantham has a long history of calling bubbles. On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, GMO's co-founder and chief investment strategist tells @TheStalwart and @tracyalloway what he thinks about Mag 7's multibillion-dollar investment into AI and the signs he watches out for to spot when a bubble might burst. Listen at bit.ly/3PsKJKY or watch at Bloomberg.com/video.

@ira_joseph @ColumbiaUEnergy x.com/meatbagcapital…

Can’t decide if this means 10-20 year deals are dead or VG is simply eager and motivated to avoid having unsold LNG during the price reckoning coming after the post Qatari return. Probably a bit of both, but I’d lean towards 5 is the new 15 in LNG contracting. @ColumbiaUEnergy

Tim Cook on memory prices, ahead of new price hikes: “This is a hundred-year flood. I’ve never seen anything like it in any area in over 40 years.” $MU $DRAM wsj.com/tech/apple-pri…

From Q1 earnings calls, straight from Brother Sabel: “We’re super excited about our 5-year deals. Those are a length in the term that we planned on and I talked about, as you know, for several years. But we — as we talked about in earlier calls, reached the — finally reached the point, the transition point between placements progressing and CP2 progressing and comfort in the production capacity of both, in particular, Plaquemines first that allows us to do the 5-year deals now. Those initially will be serviced primarily by Plaquemines. And then as CP2 comes online next year, initially with commissioning cargoes will shift over to start selling commissioning cargoes out of CP2 ramp-up. This is particularly important because it allows us to, in today’s market blend out, term out those — that future production has a big impact on kind of blending the risk with much higher pricing than 20-year pricing. We’re achieving roughly double our long-term contract prices a little bit better.”

I am noticing shorter terms (5years) on some of these recent deals. I am curious if this is a request of $VG to allow for drift in spot prices in time? Or the partners want to maintain shorter term lengths.

NEW: Venture Global and @EnBW announced a new, binding agreement for the purchase of approx. 0.82 MTPA of LNG from Venture Global for approx. 5 years. This adds to the existing 2 MTPA of 20-year sales and purchase agreements between the two companies, strengthening our partnership and supporting regional energy security. businesswire.com/news/home/2026…

@ira_joseph @ColumbiaUEnergy Yeah, maybe that's true. I could see a case for doing that where they're running a combined gas and wind system though.

Never understood the presumption that oil & gas companies should be in the renewables business any more than why the renewables business should be in oil and gas. The reckoning is not a new view on Net Zero; it’s focusing on and executing in your core competency. @ColumbiaUEnergy

@BowTiedBroke Wow! Great shot!

I don’t get excited about a random shot often…but you’ll see more than just bears if you visit. Dropping link for my cabin tomorrow. Just got the professional photos back & prop manager is getting them uploaded. Sometimes I’ll see 3-4 of these at a time soaring around.

No magic beans shale… no coal to gas magic.

New Zealand moves forward with plans to build its first LNG import terminal despite the recent surge in prices 🇳🇿🚢 “Despite the conflict, LNG remains the fastest, cheapest, and most flexible dry-year solution that can be put in place this decade" bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@SergioChapa lol, now multiply by two.

🇺🇸 Alaska LNG: Glenfarne shared its latest CAPEX estimates PDF at tinyurl.com/4c74m4my • Pipeline: $13.2B to $16.9B • Liquefaction Plant: $23.6B to $28.4B • North Slope Gas Plant: $7.7B to $9.2B • Total: $44.5B to $54.5B #LNG #ONGT #NatGas #Shale #OOTT #Alaska