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I make a case that $SLS is a Strong Sell ahead of REGAL. seekingalpha.com/article/490805…
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Stephen Ayers
10.4K posts
Stephen Ayers
@meremrtl
MBA | Seeking Alpha analyst | Biotech deep dives ↓
Chicago, IL Katılım Mart 2010
396 Takip Edilen2.5K Takipçiler
@MatchingPatek who cares about average? he gets on base and hits bombs.
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MLB scouts was treating this nigga like Joey Gallo LMAO
MLB@MLB
MUNETAKA MURAKAMI NO. 19 TIE GAME!
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Most of these drugs coming up in AD are going to look “worse” numerically than dupi come Phase 3. $APGE $NKTR $CRVS
It’s really about being non-inferior and majorly differentiated in some other way (i.e., dosing frequency).. to, at the least, be relevant.
savoryseaweed@savoryseaw50174
$apge highest dose is essentially same as dupi on pbo adjusted basis..? When this goes to p3, efficacy will come down.. so p3 has risk of showing a profile that looks WORSE than dupi
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Stephen Ayers retweetledi
I've modeled all three drugs recently in AD.
I think $NKTR valuation assumes ~$3B in peak annual sales for rezpeg.
$CRVS assumes ~$4B in peak annual sales for soquelitinib.
$APGE assumes (assumed?) ~$5B in peak annual sales for zumilokibart.
So, in my mind, when I write posts like these.. I'm thinking relative to what I've already modeled. I am in no way saying that these therapies will have no place in AD.
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Relevant.. relative to their current valuations/broad market adoption.
I think all of those drugs could secure a niche in AD.
$APGE is fighting for 1L.. same IL-13 pathway as dupi. This accounts for its higher valuation, but also comes with higher expectations.
Both $NKTR and $CRVS do not rely on the standard blockade.
So, I image that prescribers would choose $NKTR $CRVS in dupi non-responders.
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Stephen Ayers retweetledi
Differentiated MoA is good... just because I didn't mention it here doesn't mean I don't acknowledge its value.
How do I suggest doctors treat these patients?
I'm going to assume you're not really asking that and appealing to authority/using some type of logical fallacy to make a point.
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@meremrtl What about differentiated MoAs? There are many who do not respond to dupi or cease to respond to dupi after a period of time.
How do you suggest doctors treat these patients?
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@avidresearch ...oh my God, bro. Are your most popular tweets just reposting mine and saying, "ACtUAllY?"
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Did u mention the fact that only half of Dupi subjects achieve EASi75 ?
$apge and $NKTR and $crvs are all very different MOAs.
So please try not to lump them together.
Stephen Ayers@meremrtl
Most of these drugs coming up in AD are going to look “worse” numerically than dupi come Phase 3. $APGE $NKTR $CRVS It’s really about being non-inferior and majorly differentiated in some other way (i.e., dosing frequency).. to, at the least, be relevant.
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Stephen Ayers retweetledi
Stephen Ayers retweetledi
Lots of chatter regarding gene editing for cholesterol lowering. Here is the thing about getting insurance to pay:
Most commercial health insurers have about a 20% churn rate. Average person stays 4 years. The "Obamacare" ACA plans are worse, some states have a 40% churn. ANNUAL. If you think they are going to pay for $$$ gene editing when there are cheap, generic cholesterol pills you are very mistaken.
Insurers think on a different timeline than you. Their time frame is short. Trust me, I know this industry more than most of you out there. They won't pay for this. Claims will get denied. Cool science though. Launches are going to be slow. If priced relatively low things might change long term but it will take a very long time.
RE: $LLY Verve $EDIT
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$APPS CFO is suddenly out, announced on the earnings call.
Accrued revenue share jumped from $35.3M to $87.2M .
AR grew from $181.8M to $251.2M, up 38% on revenue growth of 15%. DSO went from 135 to 162 days.
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$APPS This is only up AH because people don't read the financial statements. 😂
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Stephen Ayers retweetledi
@laxofwallstreet I think the $COGT story really hinges on its ability to expand the NonAdvSM market with its more tolerable TKI.
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@meremrtl Curious - you usually lean conservative on peak sales estimates, wondering what you're underwriting for $COGT in Adv/Indolent SM? Or is it a fully GIST story in your eyes?
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Hey, it turns out there are names I am bullish on. $INSM $COGT $GPCR #scroll_comments" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">seekingalpha.com/news/4596529-s…
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Stephen Ayers retweetledi
Pete Crow-Armstrong’s last 3 ABs today:
3rd inning- 105.2 mph line out to 1B; .887 xBA; 5 pitch AB
5th inning- 101.3 mph line out to 1B; .715 xBA; 5 pitch AB
7th inning- 100.9 mph groundout to 1B; .625 xBA; 9 pitch AB
Impressive day at the plate despite having 0 hits
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@cluelessbio Thanks, systemic reviews and meta analyses would disagree with you. jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman…
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JAKi cancer and MACE risk is not an „artefact“. There simply has never been another trial of the size of oral surveillance in any other indication. 1/
Stephen Ayers@meremrtl
Definitely not apples to apples. JAKs are highly effective systemic options with solid real-world safety profiles in AA. The boxed warning is an artifact inherited from high-risk rheumatoid arthritis cohorts. The market dynamics are completely different. Prior to Camzyos, HCM lacked disease-modifying therapies that targeted the underlying biology, leaving patients facing sudden cardiac death. Camzyos expanded the TAM because it fixed the main hurdle in HCM: massive underdiagnosis. AA is distressing, but patients are otherwise physically asymptomatic and much younger. A safer mechanism only triggers an HCM-style market expansion if it matches or beats incumbent efficacy. Because rezpeg carries a clear efficacy discount to oral JAKs, it will find a clinical niche, but it won't blow open the TAM.
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