michael mayer

@red_rover2 @Mark_Penn Right, then give the region to Iran. Ridiculously naive.

@Mark_Penn This is all so dumb and Iran honestly should get a bomb so we can just leave that region. North Korea isn’t launching nukes and neither will Iran. But it will prevent Israeli regional hegemony plans

More Schizophrenia No question that the Iran regime is fractured with a power struggle going on in the country but there are a lot of unknowns that could be going on: 1) President ultimately seems to believe the blockade can be just as effective as more military action and is acting accordingly. 2) Or this is just a courtesy delay for Pakistan and we are beefing up our military for next level of strikes. 3) Iran could be playing the US with the belief that fear of “midterms” and oil prices will let them win and they are consolidating power in the IRGC. 4) Or below the surface Iran could be in turmoil and further collapse is possible as factions battle each other with a public that hates them all. Ultimately the president made the decision to de-escalate direct combat and focus on economic strangling of the regime by $500 million a day and if the IRGC strikes out at American ships or soldiers, the US is positioned to inflict massive retaliation. Our military force grows stronger each day. Midterms. Midterms. Midterms. Never heard so much chatter about an election few vote in 6 months away. Don’t expect Dems (except Fetterman) to say “awesome” if the president pulls off a successful resolution here. Trump knows he can’t afford to lose and is threading a careful needle here to find a winning solution. He is the only President willing to abandon the failing policy of appeasement and take on the growing terrorist infrastructure sponsored by Iran. We need to give him the space and support to play this out and root for success not failure here. And continue to have compassion for the true resistance fighters in the Mideast — the young people of Iran who marched and protested only to be shot and executed even today by this evil regime that is unfit to govern any country. 8 women are slated to be executed shortly — don’t expect any campus uproar over them.

@Bigredtlc54 @Mark_Penn @grok Simply, the wells and the infrastructure are down south. Tankers cannot get to the Caspian sea. Plus, the Ukraine is hitting the Russia oil infrastructure daily and their export capacity is diminishing. And by then, it will be too late.

@Mark_Penn What is to stop Iran from using the Caspian Sea w Russia or finishing their pipeline that skirts the Strait? @grok

@Chiron95p @DrJStrategy I point to you the lessons of WW2 that civilian industry is essential to support the war fighting ability. If you think that Trump is a war criminal, then I guess Roosevelt should have been indicted after his death. The US and UK strategic bombing killed 500k german civilians.

@DrJStrategy “ in victory, magnanimity”. Do you see a sign of magnanimity in Trump’s approach yet? Threatening to blow up civilian infrastructure all at the same time doesn’t look like magnanimity to me.

Food for thought. Iran Is Not Winning. It Is Unraveling. The prevailing narrative on Iran has it almost perfectly reversed. We are told that Tehran is winning a war of wills in the Gulf and that Donald Trump is gambling recklessly with the world’s most sensitive chokepoint. In reality, Iran is not consolidating strength; it is managing decline. And Trump’s play on the Strait of Hormuz has quietly forced energy markets to reprice security—tilting the balance decisively toward the Americas, and away from Europe, Asia and China. The Islamic Republic no longer resembles a confident revolutionary project. With the old clerical core leadership shattered, power has splintered between a camp that recognises a deal with the outside world as the only path to survival and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a class of military dictators with guns, patronage networks and a rational fear that any genuine settlement will ultimately throw them overboard. This is not a unified strategy at work; it’s infighting, paranoia, a fragmented system in late-stage decay, crumbling under pressure. Into this fragmentation, the White House has introduced a form of calibrated coercion too often caricatured as impulsive. Around the Strait of Hormuz, Washington has threatened disruption without fully triggering it, forcing shipowners, insurers and policymakers to absorb a hard truth: dependence on vulnerable, seaborne Middle Eastern barrels is not a passing inconvenience but a structural risk. Iran can harass tankers and jolt day-to-day sentiment; it cannot rebuild a broken economy on sporadic shocks to global shipping. And the world must deal with the end of Pax Americana! The underlying playbook is anything but novel. Sun Tzu’s insistence that “all warfare is based on deception”, Machiavelli’s counsel that a ruler must manipulate appearances and exploit factionalism, and Alfred Thayer Mahan’s argument that sea power and control of chokepoints shape the fate of nations are not museum pieces. They are, in this case, the operating code. Trump’s opaque signalling, deliberate use of disinformation and visible but limited naval posture in and around Hormuz amount to a modern, Mahanian use of sea power as economic statecraft. Energy markets are already adjusting. Tankers are head to the Gulf of America. In a world where a single strait can a risk to economies is Europe and Asia, without ever being fully closed, assets tied to secure basins and diversified export routes deserve a premium. The Americas sit in an enviable position: vast, politically stable hydrocarbon resources, multiple pipelines and ports, and no dependence on a distant maritime chokepoint controlled by adversaries. By contrast, Europe, much of Asia and China find themselves downstream of vulnerabilities they do not control and regimes they cannot stabilise, exposed to shipping routes that can be threatened faster than alternative supply can be mobilised. All of this plays out against a domestic backdrop in Iran that looks less like revolutionary vigour and more like fear. A state that cannot safely keep its internet on, that must rely on public brutality to deter dissent, is not projecting confidence. It is signalling weakness, to its own citizens as much as to its rivals. Winston Churchill once remarked that “in war, resolution; in defeat, defiance; in victory, magnanimity; in peace, goodwill.” Iran’s leadership offers only defiance, without realistic prospects of victory or peace. The uncomfortable conclusion for those still insisting that Tehran is “winning” is that what they are observing is not the rise of a regional hegemon, but the protracted, strategically exploited unwinding of a brittle regime at the centre of an overexposed energy system.

@Matt_Bracken48 @DrJStrategy We have not lost any bases. Our blockade does not need to be in the straits. It only requires no ships to go into Iranian ports or out of the ports. So far it is working.

It's hard to see how we're winning, when we've been driven out of the Persian Gulf and have lost our 13 regional bases, including 5th Fleet HQ in Bahrain. Even our blockade line is 650KM from the Strait of Hormuz. Until this changes, Iran owns and controls the SoH. All we can do is cut off the last 10% from getting to world markets.

@realjammerjoh @DrJStrategy That is exactly what is happening. As oil tankers move to the US, it reorders the hydrocarbon markets. The strait being closed harms the Iranians. As their oil storage fills up, the wells have to stop producing and water seeps into the well preventing oil production.

How on earth can someone even write this nonsense? ‘Repricing security’, ‘tilting towards the America’s’, while wrecking the collective wests energy security, and driving energy prices in the west through the roof? It is clear to me that your only concern is your ‘Trustfund’ on the Cayman Islands or something like that, or you lost the plot entirely. jammerjoh.com/entries/in-eng…

@CarolynLWJones @DrJStrategy we just need to keep the oil from flowing for about 2 more weeks and their older wells start to become unrecoverable as water seeps in. It is a fallacy that we need to open the straits. The straits are a feature, not a weakness for the US.

@DrJStrategy You are delusional. A war in Iran is UNWINNABLE. As this math major who did a tutorial independent study in the Mathematics of War Games specifically Game Theory, a ground war would be a suicide mission & bloodbath for the US. Why? The Strait of Hormuz. Geography. $. # of

@rebeccajl4 @Mark_Penn If we substituted Islamic Republic for Nazi Germany or Japan of WW2, would you preempt a war to prevent genocide? This messianic regime is no different. In fact, it is a mixture of aggressive expansion like the Nazis and horrible treatment of its own population like the USSR.

@Mark_Penn Who started this war? Why are we at war? What is the goal exactly? What have we done thus far in order to achieve these goals? How stupid are you to buy into this catastrophe? Is someone paying you to talk such nonsense?

Critical Period The next two weeks are the critical point of the war on Iran. Neither the president nor Iran have backed down. The Iranians had built up an arsenal of what is now estimated at an astounding 5000 ballistic missiles. That probably exceeds anything the US or even Russia would have. They were allowed to become even more dangerous than fully realized. They impoverished their people while building up their regional domination machine. They are clearly retaining command and control leadership enough to keep firing. They have sent 500 missiles alone against the UAE alone. But the US now has options to take out or take over their oil facilities, knock out their power and continue to dissemble their leadership. It’s going to take the next level of escalation. That appears unavoidable. With 47 years of entrenchment this regime is going to hold on and attempt to damage the world as their strategy and continue to suppress opposition at home with deaths and executions. But US and Israeli resolve appears firm and the Iran regime has limited global or internal support outside its military and its weapons. And the competence of the new US military was again on display with the rescue of the soldier and it showed back up planning for when things go wrong as they always do. So hold on to your hats for the next two weeks. The US appears to be executing its plan of ratcheting up pressure week after week but this is the critical pivot point for them to overcome the regime. It always hits the maximum resistance before collapse. The odds are with the US.

@ted_plank @Mark_Penn The Iranians are responsible for killing US citizens and soldiers for 47 years (Marine barracks, hello) and in Iraq. Note: We did not hang Germans and Japanese for aggression, we hung them mass killing of civilians outside the normal course of war making.

@Mark_Penn The USA and Israel started this unprovoked war of aggression. We hanged Germans and Japanese for this, in 1946. Iran has every right to defend itself. Indeed, they had these missiles for decades and never used them until attacked. The mullahs are the REASONABLE side in this war.

@GretaGrace20 @nfergus Nothing like Sparkle Beach Ken.

@nfergus BREAKING: Niall Ferguson has been diagnosed with Carpal Tunnel Syndrome. In his knees.

There is a rapidly forming narrative in the European and liberal media that the Europeans “won Davos”: primarily by getting Trump to “de-escalate” his demand that the United States acquire Greenland from Denmark. 1/8

@MattSmi78781885 @nfergus Epstein file issue has firmly moved against Clinton. That ship has sailed.

@nfergus Completely Crap. The only reason Trump has done Venezuela and Greenland( or was that Iceland)...is to deflect attention away from the month overdue, legally ordered publication of the Epstein files.

@thejuliehigham @nfergus @robcalhoun What Trump wants is Canada to rearm, defend the artic, and put high tariffs on Chinese goods. Those are the goals. Mexico agreed to 50% tariffs on Chinese goods and they are doing quite well. Carney is just expressing a bruised elitist ego. Just like Marcon.

@nfergus @robcalhoun The real winner from Davos was Carney. Trump was badly exposed, but if it forces NATO members to step up and prioritise defence spending it’s been worth it.

@seanmacsithigh @nfergus The EU has already massively undercut US companies through Tech company fine and other controls. If the Europeans cut US financial asset exposure, they are exposed to massive losses. Finally, the NATO countries are unlikely to contribute in any near peer conflict.

@templar1977 @nfergus one point you miss is Europe is completely dependent on the USA's ability to control the battlefield through communications and surveillance. Europe literally has nothing and is blind. Second, Europe does not know how to manage a combined arm conflict.

@nfergus You missed a few obvious facts: Europe is rapidly arming itself, for the first time it jointly sent an army to oppose the US, for the first time it backed it up with a readiness for economic war, and all important EU leaders refused to be in the presence of Trump.

@HagenMikkel_ @EWErickson Federal law prevents this. Change the laws through legislation.

@EWErickson Can you give me a reason, why the illegals who contribute to society (that’s a huge majority btw) and have lived in the country most of their lives, shouldn’t be given a pathway to citizenship?

(1) I don't think protestors should attempt to interfere with immigration agents. (2) I think every American has the right to carry a gun. (3) I think you, when engaging in obstruction with federal agents, can get hurt. When armed, things can go wrong. (4) I think we actually don't know as much about this situation as we presume because both sides are focused more on telling narratives than getting to the facts of what actually happened. (5) I think Tim Walz and Jacob Frey have made the situation far worse and destabilized by amping up white progressives and refusing to assist immigration agents. (6) I think Kristi Noem and Greg Bovino have made the situation far worse by being unrestrained in how they proceed, not prioritizing the criminals, gang members, and more seriously problematic illegals, and not thinking of the public relations fall out should things like what are happening actually happen. (7) I think Trump supporters who want an unrestrained and unmeasured deportation response are playing into the hands of progressives' PR and alienating normal voters. (8) I think Trump cannot back down from deportations due to mob violence because that will only encourage more mobs and violence to stop other polices the left does not want. (9) I think every illegal should be deported. I think prioritizing the worst ones who are criminals, gang members, drug dealers, etc. is a smart strategy and exposes the Left's sanctuary policies as unreasonable.

@Kmello35365 @EWErickson Probably right. Yet it is amazingly stupid to bring a gun while probably interfering in a police procedure.

@EWErickson (1) Alex Pretti never drew his gun (2) An ice agent removed Alex’s gun from its holster (3) An ice agent shot an unarmed man who was pinned down multiple times. (4) This is murder

@rolfcronberg @Mark_Penn @andersostlund given the latest video, she was looking straight at the ICE officer when she gunned the vehicle and hit him. she hit him first with the car and he responded instantly to shoot her.

@Mark_Penn @andersostlund Where is your outrage when ICE kill innocent people on the streets in USA.

Iran Things you can’t do in Iran now: Enjoy Taylor Swift Music in public or at a party. Walk a dog in Teheran Wear clothes of your choosing if you are a woman Have Internet (shut for now) Be on Social Media (shut for now), Get an abortion Gay Marriage — forget about it Protest the regime without fear Practice religion of your choice Vote to elect the real leaders Place a call to someone in America And the hospitals are jammed with thousands shot at protests. So where’s the outrage on campuses? The left is silent because it destroys their narrative of backing POLITICAL Islam as the answer to the West and the basic freedoms we enjoy in America. As with the Soviet Union, the system in Iran is built on authoritarianism, forced social policy, forced state religion, and government control of all communications. They have drained the country’s resources to fund terrorism and it is only a matter of time now as to their collapse.

@DRxbrxck @AGPamBondi Self-determination was thwarted by the stolen election by the Maduro regime. So grow up.

@AGPamBondi Sí ustedes se invaden Venezuela, México podría ser aliado del pueblo venezolano ante una eventual guerra. No a la intervención y sí al respeto a la autodeterminación de los pueblos.

Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, have been indicted in the Southern District of New York. Nicolas Maduro has been charged with Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy, Cocaine Importation Conspiracy, Possession of Machineguns and Destructive Devices, and Conspiracy to Possess Machineguns and Destructive Devices against the United States. They will soon face the full wrath of American justice on American soil in American courts. On behalf of the entire U.S. DOJ, I would like to thank President Trump for having the courage to demand accountability on behalf of the American People, and a huge thank you to our brave military who conducted the incredible and highly successful mission to capture these two alleged international narco traffickers.

@OrganizedPlay @BillAckman since she should have been the document preparer and she signed the documents, then she has the responsibility. I have owned 12 houses over my adult life, it is not a hard question to answer nor is the paperwork so confusing that she could have made a mistake.

@BillAckman If this were a clerical error on the part of the document preparer, yet both were signed as primary residences, does that matter in your standard?

On the topic of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, there is a long history of Fed Governors who had relatively minor ethical or legal infractions who resigned in light of the importance of unimpeachable probity for those who serve in this important position. It is either true or false that Governor Cook misrepresented her primary residence status on one or more mortgage applications. The evidence put forth publicly by @pulte strongly suggests that she lied on one or more mortgage applications, in other words, mortgage fraud. It should be straightforward for Governor Cook to disprove the alleged fraud and it shouldn’t require a team of lawyers and litigation to do so. She just needs to answer a simple question: Did she or didn’t she sign an affidavit declaring that the subject properties were her primary residences? Yes or no. Whether President @realDonaldTrump has the technical legal authority to terminate Gov Cook is not that relevant in my view. What matters here is whether a Fed governor has committed mortgage fraud or not. It is not a political question. It is a question of fact. Governor Cook should immediately put forth the facts to clear her name or she should resign in the best interests of the integrity of our financial system. The sooner this occurs, the better for her and our country.

@walsh_coman @mtaibbi @DNIGabbard Russiagate is far worse than Watergate. It affected the 2018 and 2020 elections and still a large number of independent votes believe the fairy tale that Trump and Russia colluded. Which was a lie.

@mtaibbi @DNIGabbard Who cares. Epsteingate--that's the scandal of today.

A brief 🧵 on the new report released by @DNIGabbard today, which conclusively blows up core Russiagate myths: racket.news/p/in-brutal-do…

@Marsh1L @mtaibbi @DNIGabbard For one, this story is a bigger scandal than Watergate. Second, unless the judge presiding over the Epstein case does not release the grand jury documents, we will just speculating. Also, Taibbi has been working the Russiagate story from almost the beginning.

@mtaibbi @DNIGabbard Matt why are you covering this instead of Epstein? Sorry if you've already answered that