@thE_House7 @ChrisVannini A 5 seed going 0-3 against a 4 seed is below expectation. They are expected to win 45% of the time. That equates to 1.35 expected wins out of 3 games
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Michael Flora
20.7K posts
Michael Flora
@michaelchamp
Texas A&M Alum || Runner (PRs: 17:13 5k, 36:13 10k, 1:20 HM, 2:55 Marathon) || Sports (Houston teams, Aggie sports, & USMNT) || Data Analytics
Houston, TX Katılım Nisan 2009
1.3K Takip Edilen625 Takipçiler
@michaelchamp @ChrisVannini 20% is significant first off, but the important factor is how many of the wins by 5 seeds were by those that drew a 13 in R2. Then you need to calculate separate expected wins.
Ex: SMC drew 2023 Uconn in R2. SDSU drew Furman. If draws were swapped, SDSU loses R2, not in natty
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Not fraudulent. Doing pretty much what's expected of their seed. One run of upset wins (2010), one bad upset loss (2024). Can say you'd like to see more, but they're basically seeded correctly.
Iain MacMillan@IainMacBets
We need to start having a conversation about how much of a fraudulent NCAA Tournament team Saint Mary's is. One Sweet 16 in 14 tournament appearances since 1989.
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@thE_House7 @ChrisVannini Sure, but that would not change it much.
13 seeds only beat 4 seeds 20% of the time. 15 seeds only beat 2 seeds 6% of the time.
The point still stands. They are below expectation and more than 1 standard deviation below expectation. Not terrible, but definitely not meets
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@michaelchamp @ChrisVannini Yes, avg number, but not separated by what seeds they face in R2 and beyond. It applies the same expected wins to each 5 seed, regardless of what draw luck they get. Obviously the expected wins of a 5 seed facing a 12 and then 13 are way higher than facing a 12 then a 4.
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@thE_House7 @ChrisVannini Yes it does. Each seed is associated with an average number of wins.
5 seed: 1.14 wins (SD = 1.17)
7 seed: 0.89 wins (SD = 0.97)
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@michaelchamp @ChrisVannini That doesn’t adjust for draw luck though. It is dramatically easier to make S16 as a 5 seed if the 4 seed loses to the 13.
Also, remember that being 58% of expectation is still better than most programs! It’s just odd to target them specifically.
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@TheAggship Am I supposed to be shocked that a bubble team (regardless of conference) is capable of winning in March?
But this idea that mid majors are consistently under seed is not backed up by any data. It’s anecdotal stories that people tell themselves so we can have feel good stories
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It’s interesting that high-majors suddenly become much more vulnerable against mid-majors when they have to play them in real life rather than in hypothetical internet arguments. Something to consider for sure
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@HHHardwood What does this prove exactly? That VCU should’ve been seeded ahead of UNC? Bubble teams are still good teams capable of beating the 25th best team in the country.
Power conference or small conference. Bubble teams are still capable of winning games.
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The selection committee either needs to admit that they need to look at the selection process or just come out and say that they only want high majors. VCU wasn’t even in the field without winning the A10 tourney. They just beat UNC. Add it to Miami (OH) and High Point already…
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@TheAggship The data says otherwise. But continue making false statements
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Michael Flora retweetledi
(10) TEXAS A&M DANCES ON 🕺
Aggies defeat (7) Saint Mary’s 63-50 to continue their journey in #MarchMadness 😮💨
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@Aaron_Torres I totally get it. High Point and Miami (OH) are way more fun and exciting to watch. But let's not act like it'd be crazy if an Auburn or an Oklahoma beat Wisconsin and SMU. It's basketball. The best teams don't always win. And top 80 teams in the country can beat top 25 teams
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High Point went 30-4, hasn't lost since mid-January - and wouldn't have sniffed an at large bid
Miami (OH) went undefeated in the regular season, finished 31-1 and ended up in Dayton
We REALLY need to re-evaluate how we go about selecting at-large teams for the NCAA Tournament
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Michael Flora retweetledi
“His first 2-pointer of the year gives High Point the lead” might be the best sentence ever said on a broadcast.
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Michael Flora retweetledi
HIS FIRST TWO POINTER OF THE ENTIRE SEASON ARE YOU KIDDING
Matthew Winick@matthewwinick
Chase Johnston is making Jack Gohlke look like a scrub right now. My god.
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Michael Flora retweetledi
Trying to figure out how Ohio State had 4.3 seconds and ended up taking a half-court shot.
Rough way to go.
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Michael Flora retweetledi
Brutal start for the ACC, as NC state and SMU were expected to win a combined 1.66 games, and instead will go home with 0.
JBR@JBRBracketology
I will once again be tracking how each multi-bid conference performs in the 2026 NCAA Tournament! Expected wins pulled from the *expected* number of wins per seed line using historical NCAA Tournament results dating back to 1985 Big Ten with the most expected wins at 14.27 (last year the SEC was expected to win an insane 20.73 games -- and exceeded that number with 23 wins)
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Michael Flora retweetledi
I will once again be tracking how each multi-bid conference performs in the 2026 NCAA Tournament!
Expected wins pulled from the *expected* number of wins per seed line using historical NCAA Tournament results dating back to 1985
Big Ten with the most expected wins at 14.27 (last year the SEC was expected to win an insane 20.73 games -- and exceeded that number with 23 wins)
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Michael Flora retweetledi
I see so many posts and get so many questions about the Texans trading up but remember this. Will Anderson, CJ Stroud, Kamari Lassiter are all getting big extensions to go with a big deal for Stingley and a potential increase for Nico. I didn't even mention Bullock who should get another deal as well. They need their picks to help balance out the salary cap vs. the rising costs for 2nd contracts.
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Michael Flora retweetledi
Coaches and players running onto the floor before the buzzer is going to get a team in hot water real soon.
It’s happened at least three times in the past week, and you know refs are going to be on the prowl for it soon.
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Michael Flora retweetledi
Indoor living area per person has roughly tripled in the US since 1950.
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Michael Flora retweetledi
Nick Caserio has done a very good job of addressing not just the offensive line, but the potential to crank up the running game and take pressure off of CJ Stroud's shoulders in a big way.
I really feel like the Texans could go in a variety of directions now with their 28th and 38th pick. All options are on the table.
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Michael Flora retweetledi
THIS IS GOLD:
New #Texans guard Wyatt Teller’s wife posted a video showing Wyatt celebrating signing with Houston on a multi-year deal.
Teller immediately put on his boots and put on some George Strait music.
A true Texan already 🤣🤣🤣
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