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@Gerashchenko_en Has UA considered seizing RU nuclear weapons after its political & military collapse, which appears to be rapidly nearing? Isn't that the best security guarantee?

Security guarantees for Ukraine, as the foundation of a stable and durable peace, are a central element of the future peace agreement. These guarantees consist of several components: • Ukraine’s own defense capability and our Defense Forces. • Ukraine’s participation in defense alliances and partnerships. The second component is particularly important. One of the key elements of such an architecture could be a U.S.-Ukraine security and defense alliance. Ukraine is an important geopolitical partner for the United States due to shared democratic values, our strategic location, economic potential, and overlapping security priorities. Systematic support for Ukraine is strategically important for the U.S.: it helps preserve the international order, strengthens the security of NATO allies, prevents further escalation of Russian aggression, and shapes America’s relations with its main competitor - China. Below are some considerations on how a strategic partnership between Ukraine and the United States could be structured. To understand which model might be relevant for Ukraine, it is useful to look at the basic formats of existing U.S. security relationships. The United States builds its security ties as a spectrum of tools - from formal alliances to flexible statuses and special cooperation frameworks. At the top are treaty-based alliances (NATO and U.S. bilateral defense treaties), which enshrine the principle of responding to an armed attack: an attack on an ally is treated as a threat to shared security, and the parties commit to take action to counter this threat within their respective constitutional procedures. In classic U.S. practice, such arrangements are often formalized as Mutual Defense Treaties or similarly structured Security Treaties. Their logic is not "automatic declaration of war," but a legally binding obligation to recognize an attack as dangerous and to take action in response in accordance with domestic procedures. In the Indo-Pacific region, examples of U.S. treaty allies include Japan (Security Treaty, 1960), the Republic of Korea (Mutual Defense Treaty, 1953), the Philippines (Mutual Defense Treaty, 1951), Australia (ANZUS, 1951), and Thailand (alliance commitments historically based on the 1954 Manila Pact and subsequent political agreements). The next tier consists of privileged statuses and cooperation frameworks that do not contain mutual defense obligations as a legal trigger. The Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA) status offers expanded tools for defense cooperation (programs, procurement, R&D, financial and export mechanisms), but it is not a collective defense treaty. Examples of MNNAs include Jordan, Qatar, Egypt, Bahrain, Kuwait, Morocco, Tunisia, and others. Importantly, MNNA status can overlap with existing treaty alliances - hence the official MNNA list also includes traditional U.S. allies such as Australia, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand. Alongside this are special categories of strategic partners without a treaty-based alliance - for example, India, designated by the State Department as a Major Defense Partner. There is also the so-called "Israel model": very deep assistance, technological integration, and joint programs (including in air and missile defense) without a formal mutual defense treaty. Its strength lies in rapid capability-building and high technological depth; its weakness is the absence of a hard legal trigger equivalent to "an attack = obligation to act." The uniqueness of this model is usually attributed to long-term assistance frameworks, the principle of Qualitative Military Edge (QME), and tightly integrated air and missile defense cooperation. A particularly illustrative example is the U.S.-Philippines partnership - a Mutual Defense Treaty alliance that shows how a treaty-based relationship works in practice, supplemented by modular additional agreements. The Mutual Defense Treaty of 1951 sets up the general framework, while the VFA (Visiting Forces Agreement) defines the legal regime of the US personnel staying and acting during missions and trainings; the EDCA (Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement) forms the infrastructure-logistical framework, and the Bilateral Defense Guidelines adapt the union to the "gray area" and new domains, including sea incidents and the cyber space. It's the combination of "treaty + implementation agreements + modern guiding principles" that turns the union into a working mechanism of daily readiness. What kind of guarantees would actually guarantee Ukraine's security? The model itself is not too important for the Ukrainian-American security partnership - it's the principle of module construction of the union that can be built stage by stage. The current 10-year USA-Ukraine agreement of June 13, 2024 is a strong framework for aid and integration. However, it has the signs of an executive agreement: it has "urgent consultations" included (within 24 hours) in case of attack/threat, and further steps depend on the laws and financing. Termination is possible through a written notification, effective in six months. Thus, that's an important "bridge" but not an "automatic security guarantee." Consequently, the rational trajectory has to come in steps. First, the agreement of 2024 should be "anchored" in the US legal system through a legal package: approving the necessary law/act and budget allocation for several years that would set key programs into place (air defense, ammunition, joint planning, industrial cooperation), as well as demands regarding reporting and execution. Parallel to that, a ratified mutual defense treaty can remain a strategic goal. Such treaty would have a clearly defined reaction mechanism in case of an attack, joint defense planning, long-term support infrastructure ("union architecture", not necessarily combat forces), integrated air defense systems and intelligence data exchange. "The Trump administration has repeatedly affirmed, publicly and privately, that any deal must provide full security guarantees and deterrence for Ukraine," - White House deputy spokesperson Anna Kelly. Security guarantees for Ukraine are actually not just for Ukraine's security - they matter for European and global security. The new global security order will emerge from the outcome of this war. Friends, I know I have a lot of people with expertise and extensive knowledge here. What are your thoughts? What do you see as the next steps going forward? I'm really curious to hear your opinions.

@evgen1232007 If this qualifies as money-printing, maybe mention that? Also what impact on inflation should this entail?

In reality, the budget deficit, according to my calculations, will not be 5.736, but 8-9 trillion rubles. To achieve this, Russia will need to sell another 2.5-4 trillion rubles in bonds. And the Central Bank will issue this money through repo agreements to banks! 3/

The war is forcing Russia to launch a large-scale bond issue. Today, the Ministry of Finance sold bonds worth 152 billion rubles. The volume of bonds in circulation since the beginning of the year has increased by 6.024 trillion rubles. But this won't save the situation. 1/

@igorsushko Reason for UA's new airforce: political & economic control over all of western Russia, including seizure of its nuclear arsenal.

🇫🇷🤝🇺🇦 Ukraine: Ukrainian Mirage 2000-5F fighter jet supplied by France. Over the coming decade Ukraine is slated to build one of the largest air forces in all of Europe.

@secretsqrl123 Well obviously... The furious ghosts of UA's fallen are even more formidable than their living brethren! Tho clearly there's still plenty of the latter :)

if ukraine has no more troops or tanks why is this still called kyiv... answer or stfu

@igorsushko There are abundant indications that the Xi era, and hence support for Russia and annexation of Taiwan, is over.

China constructed a large-scale replica of Taiwan's central government buildings to conduct special forces exercises aimed at simulating an assault to neutralize Taipei's seat of power.

@junius1768 @JayinKyiv It might accelerate inflation growth!

@mnmnotmail @JayinKyiv And exactly how does that help?

Putin's new scam of forcing Russian banks to buy worthless Russian government bonds has now resulted in a 500% increase in bond issuance year-over-year. With banks now barely lending to the public, it's a direct looting of the economy and will leave the Russian banking sector sitting on worthless paper.

@timventura @csufullerton Tim, just tried to reach you via your website contact form, re WTUFO. Not sure it worked. Could you msg me here if not? Thx! -Liam

For over 30 years, James F. Woodward's Mach-effect "MEGA Drive" made scientific history. Now, a new generation of scientists are poised to continue his work. altpropulsion.com/the-first-step… #physics #science #space #propulsion @csufullerton

@Gerashchenko_en Surprised you haven't noticed Chinese OSINT analysts' reporting re Xi's imminent resignation, forced partly by unworkable plans for Taiwan invasion, and aid to Putin. China is about to change tack!

Russia is helping prepare China to attack Taiwan - the Washington Post. ◾️ According to information obtained, Russia has reportedly agreed to equip and train a Chinese airborne battalion and share its expertise in airdropping armored vehicles that analysts say could boost Beijing's capacity to seize Taiwan. ◾️ The agreements allegedly allow Beijing to access training and technology in one of the few areas where Russian capabilities still surpass those of the Chinese military: more experienced airborne troops. ◾️ Moscow has become increasingly dependent on China for dual-use items to prop up its sanctions-hit military industry and sustain its war in Ukraine. However, at the same time, Beijing is using Russia's experience to accelerate its army modernization program and bring its capabilities to the level of the US armed forces. ◾️ The documents, details of which have been verified by the RUSI, a British think tank, appear to demonstrate the deepening alliance between Moscow and Beijing, moving beyond symbolic joint drills and public statements to develop interoperable systems and shared combat experience in areas that China considers critical for winning a battle over Taiwan. ◾️ According to the documents, in October 2024, Russia agreed to sell China 37 BMD-4M light amphibious vehicles, 11 Sprut-SDM1 self-propelled anti-tank guns, 11 BTR-MDM armored personnel carriers, and parachute systems designed to airdrop heavy loads. The total value of the contract was $584 million. ◾️ Separate documents outlined training programs for Chinese paratroopers in the combat use of the weaponry and the advanced command and control systems used to direct operations by Russian specialists in Russia and later in China. RUSI said it would give China's air force "expanded air maneuver capability" that offered "offensive options against Taiwan, the Philippines, and other island states in the regions." ◾️ Although Beijing declined to provide military hardware at scale for Russia's war effort, the two countries have continued to celebrate a close security partnership. In 2024, they held 14 joint exercises, nearly double the number a decade earlier. ◾️ Analysts emphasize that for China, Russia's airdrop expertise is most valuable, which is important in the event of an invasion of Taiwan. Chinese planners consider deploying well-equipped units to Taiwan in the early hours of a conflict. ◾️ According to the experts, the Chinese military "have studied D-Day backward, forward and upside down [and] realized that it would have failed without an airborne component." That makes the Russian experience in Ukraine and Syria even more valuable for Beijing. ◾️ If the invasion takes place, Moscow's supply of natural resources and its defense industry could become "strategic backup for China." At the same time, for Taiwan, Russian support for China's airborne capabilities intensifies concerns that Beijing could seize infrastructure inland even as it storms ports and beaches along the coast. washingtonpost.com/world/2025/09/…

@igorsushko To invade NATO, wouldn't RU need reliable supplies of fuel, foreign currency, motivated soldiers, grain, etc?

Russia has been at war with Europe for a long time, but the Kremlin has refused to admit it until now, and Europe is in denial. Why now? Because Russian intelligence confirms European weakness and Russia feels prepared for the hot phase of war on Europe. x.com/igorsushko/sta…

🚨 RUSSIA IS AT WAR WITH EUROPE In a secret meeting of European envoys with the Russians in Moscow last week, Russian officials told the Europeans that Russia is already at war with them because Europe is helping Ukraine defend itself. archive.is/LgJIv

@igorsushko Why not encourage the orcs to burn up scarce jet fuel in symbolic gestures over the Baltic?

Russian military aircraft made dangerous low-passes on German warship Hamburg over two days on Sep 19 and 20 during NATO's Neptune Strike exercises in the Baltic Sea. Europeans did what they do best - NOTHING. They should have Trump on speed dial for permission to shoot.

@calxandr We'll know the GOP is actually sick of White House adoration of orcs when articles of impeachment are drafted. Without them, Congress has no cards.

Frustrated GOP senators blow steam on Russia: ‘Sick of’ Trump, Vance ‘love affair’ with Putin thehill.com/homenews/senat…

@GOP4Ukraine Won't you have to take decisive measures against the current US administration, e.g. removing cabinet officials, to accomplish your goals?

"As Members of Congress, united across party lines, we affirm our unwavering support for Poland, Ukraine, and all our NATO allies. We call for decisive and immediate measures to address this dangerous threat."

@rosscoulthart Have you not seen Luna's statements re Russia & Ukraine? She looks like a plausible security risk.

It’s absurd that Congress is being denied security clearances that would allow insights on UAPs. Why do politicians put up with this nonsense when the Constitution categorically authorises congressional oversight? Name and shame those doing the obstructing.

@igorsushko China OSINT analysts report that China is in severe economic contraction, and CCP will soon replace Xi, as the nation is on the brink of social & political collapse. Policy towards RU & EU will change sharply.

The fairytale of European "security guarantees" for Ukraine only after the Russian war on Ukraine ends (how? why?) reminds me of Don't Look Up. Russia won't run out of money. China will bail them out. Europeans need to stop dreaming and start fighting in the war for Europe.

@Gerashchenko_en For a better view of trends in China, pls see OSINT analysts on YouTube: Lei, Don Xiang, Ken Cao. Current reality is vastly diff than what CCP & western media report.

The SCO Summit and Beijing Parade: signals of a Chinese order Beijing used the military parade and the SCO summit to cement China’s image as an alternative center of the global system. Xi Jinping declared that "the revival of the Chinese nation cannot be stopped," while standing alongside Putin and Kim Jong Un in a symbolic demonstration of authoritarian unity. ◾️Politics • China combined soft power (antifascist narratives, WWII memory) with hard power (military display). • The participation of representatives from Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, and several former European prime ministers underscored that Europe has become an arena of systemic competition. • A Kuomintang delegation from Taiwan reinforced Beijing’s message of "inevitable reunification." • India used the platform to stress the fight against terrorism and showed it acts as an independent power center, balancing between the West and China. • SCO+ expanded with Malaysia and Indonesia joining the discussions. ◾️Economy • China announced the creation of an SCO Development Bank and pledged financial assistance to partners. • The Moscow–Beijing energy axis was strengthened with confirmation of the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline and new long-term gas contracts. • The yuan’s role in international settlements is growing, alongside the development of "green energy corridors" in Central Asia. ◾️Security • The SCO continues to present itself as a counterterrorism platform, though India pressed for tougher measures. • The parade sent a strong signal of military capability, reinforcing Beijing’s diplomatic messaging. ◾️Geopolitics • China and Russia are advancing a vision of an illiberal world order. • European delegations were used as proof of China’s growing influence in the region. • The inclusion of Southeast Asian countries elevates the SCO to a pan-Eurasian scale. ◾️Reactions • United States: described the joint appearance of Xi, Putin, and Kim as an "alliance of autocracies" and pledged to strengthen support for allies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. • European Union: called for "strategic vigilance"; within Europe, opinions were split between advocates of dialogue with China and those who see the parade as a threat. • Africa: delegations welcomed calls for a "fairer order," emphasizing anti-colonialism and readiness for cooperation. • Latin America: China’s allies (Venezuela, Bolivia, Nicaragua) endorsed multipolarity; Brazil and Mexico stressed economic cooperation without political positioning. • Middle East: Iran used the summit to criticize the U.S.; Saudi Arabia and the UAE limited their comments to interest in economic cooperation. ◾️Conclusion The SCO summit and Beijing parade showcased the emergence of an alternative power center led by China and Russia, viewed differently across Europe, Asia, Africa, and Latin America. India’s participation demonstrated its intent to balance and preserve its status as one of the world’s independent centers of power.

@secretsqrl123 @ZelenskyyUa @general_ben @ZelenskaUA @WarintheFuture @BenWallace70 @DrnBmbr @UAControlMap @Tatarigami_UA @CANADA566 @LibertyUkraineF @Svyrydenko_Y can you resolve the above misunderstanding re a UK volunteer?

to @ZelenskyyUa @general_ben @ZelenskaUA @WarintheFuture @BenWallace70 @DrnBmbr @UAControlMap @Tatarigami_UA @CANADA566 @LibertyUkraineF and others please repost!!!!! please be respectful, but repost subject.. detention of a British volunteer and veteran of the AFU. sir right now FORMER armed forces of Ukraine volunteer Adam Ennis (who was legally discharged from the AFU in 2022 for combat wounds) is being held in armed forces custody over what appears to be a paperwork issue. he was arrested for being a deserter from the 117th brigade back in 2022. this appears to be a case of incomplete paperwork where his medical discharge was not put into the system. the fact is that Mr Ennis has brought millions of dollars into Ukraine in the form of 100s of donated vehicles for medical evacuation (he was bringing in more when arrested). continuing to hold this person right now is HURTING the AFU and Ukraine. 1. donations will slow. 2. many vehicles will not be imported without him. 3. this will be a HUGE political black eye to Ukraine. 4. this will give the russians something to latch onto. so please look into this sir, you have far larger issues than to deal with the political fallout of this.. thank you david D. over 1 million dollars in aid donated to the ukraine armed forces .. and counting. US army vet.

@StratcomCentre Aren't RU banks now lending to the govt money newly-printed by the Central Bank? Hasn't other lending collapsed simply due to the unaffordable interest rate?

Russia continues to drain the assets of the banking sector, which has been forced to cut lending to instead purchase government bonds. The issuance of government bonds is now up +300% compared to 2024. "Fortress Russia" is no more.

@Tatarigami_UA Ping-pong was the analogy that occurred to me this morning -- POTUS has assumed the role of ping-pong ball.

The current geopolitical standoff feels like a game of hot potato: Putin on one side, Ukraine and Europe on the other, each trying to toss it to the opponent, hoping not to be the one left holding it. The hot potato is Donald Trump.

@SavchenkoReview Chinese language OSInt analysts have been reporting Xi's quiet removal. China foreign policy expected to pivot away from RU when successor is announced by early Oct.

🇨🇳‼️ Putin’s position as Xi Jinping’s vassal fully mirrors Beijing’s strategy. Like any dictator, he must show results to his supporters — but there are none. The only “victory” that could justify a pause in the war would be the full occupation of Donbas. Only then could Putin wait for China to open a second front. For Beijing, keeping a war in Europe is essential to stretch U.S. resources. This means not only Ukraine, but a potential confrontation with NATO. Trump’s push for Europeans to spend more on defense within NATO is therefore logical. But it doesn’t guarantee that the U.S. will engage in a direct clash with China: Washington would prefer Asian allies, especially Japan, to take the lead. Chinese propaganda is already preparing the ground: new films about the Nanjing massacre frame future aggression against Japan as “revenge.”