Devansh Modi

India runs $333 billion trade deficit and imports 88% of its crude, Hiking rates to widen the yield spread means defending a currency that has to buy $19 billion in oil every month Every basis point of rate hike makes borrowing costlier for Indian firms while doing nothing about the import bill The spread narrowed from 4.1% to 2.5% not because India got reckless but because the US repriced its own debt, Punishing domestic growth to attract bond tourists is a bad trade. China held the yuan weak for 15 years while building the export machine that now runs a trillion dollar surplus. India sits on the other side, importing oil, gold, fertilizers, electronics, edible oil, Strengthening the rupee when 50% of your exports need imported raw materials just inflates costs without making you competitive. RBI burned $30 billion in reserves since February defending the rupee near 96, That is not a strategy, That is running on a treadmill while the floor keeps moving. Yield spread question hides 3 deeper problems. One, India has no structural dollar earning engine like IT that scales with rupee weakness. Two, FPIs pulled Rs 2.1 lakh crore from equities in 4 months, so bond flows alone cannot plug the gap. Three, the current account deficit is heading toward 2% of GDP with Brent above 107, Raising rates to attract foreign debt capital while the economy needs cheaper credit is like fixing a leak by drilling another hole in the same wall.

Richest man of China: Zhang Yiming New ventures: Unitree Robotics, ByteDance AI Labs. Richest man of America: Elon Musk New ventures: SpaceX, Grok xAI, Neuralink. Richest man of India: Mukesh Ambani New ventures: Vantara Icecream, Campa Sure, Campa Cola. Fun fact: Vantara Premium Ice Cream starts at ₹750 per scoop + taxes! And then people question about MAKE IN INDIA 🇮🇳

China does not compete as one economy, It competes as 4, Beijing and Shanghai run at Japan and South Korea income levels Inland provinces like Yunnan and Guizhou sit at Vietnam and Mexico wage rates, When Shenzhen moves up to EVs and chips, Henan and Sichuan absorb the garment factories that would have left for Bangladesh CF40 data shows China gained export share in every product category from 2010 to 2024. Low tech, medium tech, high tech. No country has done all three at once. IMF wants China to cut industrial subsidies from 4% of GDP to 2%. CF40 says that will not change anything. China rich coastal cities pour money into AI and semiconductors while inland provinces with wages 30 to 50% lower keep making furniture, textiles, and plastic goods. This internal wage gap acts as a permanent trade advantage that no policy tweak can remove. India at $490 billion manufacturing output is one tenth of China $4.7 trillion. Gap is not about subsidies. It is about depth China Have Every country trying to replace China in manufacturing ends up importing from China to do it. Vietnam 175 Canon suppliers include just 20 local firms. The rest ship parts from Japan, China, and Taiwan. India smartphone exports crossed $30 billion in 2025 but still depend on Chinese components for displays, batteries, and chips. Moving final assembly is not the same as moving the supply chain. China went from 8.5% of global manufacturing in 2004 to 30% today. That kind of lead does not get erased in a decade. One have to Copy Chinese Playbook everything plus of korean and Japan too with Singapore ease of doing business

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Someone on twitter claimed to have discovered asarfi Then came one bad result and the same person exited the stock. Then the uncle started posting on marble city. This is like the prince of persia game where the prince keeps getting killed. Then the uncle talks about bull markets like his dog knows how to bark. Uncle doesn't get anything right but still says I told u so. My advise to this uncle is.. tere se nahi hoga. Keh ke le rahe. Investing nahi aati tumhe

🚨 SHOCKING RAID in West Bengal! TMC Leader’s House Exposed! 🤯 When police raided the home of TMC leader Shamim Ahmed in Howrah, they weren’t ready for what they found… A secret luxury bunker hidden behind a trap door, complete with a gold-panelled bed, gold sofa, high-end furniture, and reports of kilos of gold stashed away! This is the same “ordinary” leader whose house looked normal from outside. Inside? Pure kingly opulence. Leaders or gold smugglers? While common Indians struggle, some politicians live like this. West Bengal… Tamil Nadu… the pattern of “public service” turning into private treasure hunts continues. Hindus demand freebies. Some demand our temples and our end. Time to wake up, Bharat! 🇮🇳 What do you think - public servant or palace builder? #WestBengal #TMCExposed #Corruption #GoldRaid #IndiaAwake #BharatFirst (Share if this angers you too 🔥)

As President Trump goes with a team consisting of every top CEO in the US, here is the explanation of why US has to go with folded hands to China. It is not insane... It is China check mating the world For a global perspective beyond the obvious, send a DM to @firstglobalsec And here is my Mint column a few days ago on China's deliberate (and successful) strategy of dominating the world

So when crude stays elevated above $100 for an extended period, don't treat it as a temporary inconvenience. Treat it as what it is - a potential breakpoint event for the Indian economy. Everything else - FII flows, fiscal math, currency stability, RBI room to manoeuvre - all of it becomes secondary to where oil settles. Hypothetical scenario :)

India forex reserves dropped $38.5 billion in 10 weeks. So the government did what it does every time the rupee is under pressure, doubled gold import duty from 6% to 15%. Domestic gold prices jumped 6% in a single day. RBI added 86 tonnes of sovereign gold in the same six months. The state wants Indians to stop buying gold so the state can keep buying gold. Different buyer, same dollar. Modi asking Indians to skip gold for a year, Hormuz is disrupted, Brent is at $107, and the rupee just hit 95.63 against the dollar. Every dollar that goes to gold is a dollar not available for crude. India imported $72 billion worth of gold in FY26 - more than a quarter of what it spent on oil. The duty hike from 6% to 15% is a rationing tool, not a tax decision. the government cut gold duty to 6% in 2024 to kill smuggling. now it's back to 15% because the rupee is falling apart. so we're going to get both - expensive legal gold and cheap smuggled gold. every time india runs into a dollar crunch they tax gold. every time smuggling spikes they cut the tax. this has happened in 2013, 2022, and now 2026. it's a pendulum and the jewellery industry just got whiplash again.

Samsung semiconductor division did ($44bn) in operating profit in Q1 alone, that is 70%+ operating margin SK hynix did ($31bn) at a 72% margin. Annualize those and add TSMC, you are looking at $500bn+ in combined profit from three companies. India entire listed corporate universe - roughly 3,200 companies - made about $200bn in PAT in FY25 at a profit-to-GDP ratio of 6.9%. One Samsung semiconductor division is outearning all of India Inc. And these numbers are still getting upgraded because HBM capacity is sold out through 2027 and memory prices keep rising. Korea at 8x after a 200% rally is not cheap because of sentiment. It is cheap because the denominator is moving that fast. The structural difference he is pointing below in video if yu watch out at is not just size of profits. It is the type of profits. Samsung and SK hynix are earning on IP they own - process technology for HBM4, 3D NAND stacking, advanced DRAM packaging. These are margins you get when you control a bottleneck in a global supply chain with only two real suppliers. India 15% earnings growth comes from banks lending more, consumer staples selling more sachets, and IT companies billing more hours. All of those are volume and GDP-linked. None of them give you a 72% operating margin or an 18-month sold-out order book. India earnings are broad but shallow. Korea are narrow but deep enough to fund the entire current account. Memory semiconductors used to be a boom-bust cycle with margins swinging between 10% and 60% every few years. This time is different because HBM and AI server DRAM have shifted the business from a spot-price commodity market to a long-term contract, order-based production model - more like TSMC foundry business than old-style DRAM. SK hynix has signed multi-year supply agreements with Nvidia and hyperscalers. If that structure holds, the cycle flattens and Korea earnings stay elevated longer than historical patterns suggest. India problem is not that it lacks a super cycle. It is that nothing in the Indian corporate earnings mix can compound at 100% a year even temporarily.

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@ANI These are scripted?

Arnab’s video going viral in Iran. For all the right reasons. Never thought I’d live to see this day. 🥲

Have you ever wondered why??) 1.After the Congress government left, why has Mumbai not seen the rise of another Haji Mastan, Karim Lala, or Dawood Ibrahim? 2.After the BSP government ended, why was Mayawati not weighed with diamonds, crowns, and bundles of cash on her birthday anymore? 3.After Yogi Ji became CM of UP, why have mafia dons like Atiq Ahmed, Azam Khan, and Mukhtar Ansari stopped emerging? 4.After Modi came, why can’t P. Chidambaram grow cabbages worth ₹6 crores in the flowerpots of his bungalow anymore? 5.Why can’t Supriya Sule cultivate crops worth ₹670 crores on her 10-acre farmland these days? 6.After the Congress lost power in Haryana, why has Robert Vadra stopped buying land there? 7.After losing power in UP, why did Akhilesh Yadav stop organizing the Saifai Mahotsav? 8.After selling a painting to Yes Bank owner Rana Kapoor for ₹2.5 crores, why has Priyanka Gandhi never sold another painting again? 9.After A.K. Antony sold his wife’s painting to the government for ₹28 crores, why has his wife never painted again? 10.During the 10-year rule of the UPA (2004–14), Sonia Gandhi used to travel abroad every six months for treatment of her “unknown” illness. She lived in Delhi, yet her flights always departed from airports in Kerala, carrying 4–5 large trunks with her. There was never any question of security checks, since she was the “Super PM” of India at that time. But after the change of power in 2014, how did Sonia’s “mysterious illness” suddenly vanish into thin air?

Everyone in India thinks AI robocalling means a robotic voice saying "Sir, would you like a personal loan?" or maybe even "Main Arvind Kejriwal bol raha hoon" if you live in Delhi. And then you hanging up in 3 seconds. That was in the past. It is not what is happening in 2026. Let me tell you what happened when we tried it. March 2025. We decided to test AI voice calling at Skill Arbitrage. We had a sales team making calls. Good people. Trained well. But we were capped. 80 to 100 calls per person per day. We needed to reach 30,000 leads a month. The math did not work with humans alone. So we called one of the top AI calling companies. They set it up in a week. We gave them the script. The objection handling. The FAQs. The customer database. They said "leave it to us." First batch of calls went out. Disaster. The AI sounded perfect. Too perfect. Crystal clear voice. Flawless Hindi. No pauses. No breathing. No background noise. Like talking to a newsreader on Doordarshan. People hung up. Not because they thought it was a robot. Because something felt off. They could not explain it. They just did not trust the voice. Our conversion rate was worse than our worst human caller. We almost killed the project. Then someone on our team had an idea. What if we made the voice worse on purpose? We added a tiny bit of background noise. The kind you hear when someone is calling from an office with other people around. We added small pauses before answers, the way a real person takes a second to think. We made the voice slightly less polished. Not robotic. Just human. Conversion went up 40%. That was the first lesson. Humans do not trust perfection on a phone call. A voice that is too smooth triggers the same instinct as a salesperson who is too polished. You want to leave the showroom. A little imperfection signals "real person." Even when the listener probably knows it is not. Then the second surprise. We expected massive hangup rates. Everyone told us "Indians will not talk to robots." We braced for 30, maybe 40% dropping the call immediately. 6% hung up. 94% engaged normally. They answered questions. Confirmed details. Booked appointments. Made decisions. 94 out of 100 people did not care that the voice was artificial. They cared that the call was relevant and respected their time. A bored human reading the same script for the 80th time that day was actually less engaging than a well-designed AI call. Then the third discovery. This is the one that changed how I think about AI calling entirely. Our human QA team could review maybe 30 calls a day out of the thousands being made. They would catch a problem, coach a caller, and hope the fix would spread to the rest of the team by next week. With the AI, we could audit every single call. Every word. Every response. Every point where the conversation broke down. We would find a pattern. "When the lead says 'I already looked into this,' the AI gives a generic response and loses them." We would rewrite that one response. Deploy it. Within an hour it was live on every call. Five improvement cycles in a day. Our human team used to do five in a quarter. By the second month our AI caller was outperforming our best human salesperson on the metrics that mattered. Not because it started better. Because it improved 100x faster. We started with a system that was honestly embarrassing. We iterated it 50 times in 30 days. Nobody who heard it in month two would believe it was the same system. Now here is the part I wish someone had told us before we started. The technology is cheap. Bolna, Vapi, Bland, Exotel. Rs 1 to Rs 5 per minute. A 2-minute call costs less than Rs 10. Compare that to a human caller at Rs 20,000 a month making 80 calls a day. Any vendor can set it up in a week. That is not where the money is won or lost. We went through three vendors before we figured out the real problem. Every time we gave a vendor our process and said "build it," we got a technically functional system that produced mediocre results. The calls connected. The voice worked. The script played out. But nothing converted. Because the vendor did not know our business. What does the AI say when someone asks "how is this different from that other course I saw on Instagram?" That is not in any FAQ document. That is business judgment. When does the AI push and when does it back off? When someone says "call me later," do you call them later or is that a polite rejection? If they say "I need to ask my husband," do you offer to call back when he is available or do you handle the objection now? When the lead switches from Hindi to English mid-sentence, how does the AI respond? In Hindi? In English? In Hinglish? The answer depends on what that switch signals about the caller's comfort level. No vendor can figure this out for you. These are not technology problems. They are sales judgment calls that only someone inside your business can make. Every company I have seen get extraordinary results from AI calling has one thing in common. Not a better vendor. Not a more expensive platform. They have one person on their own team who owns the prompt. This person listens to 50 calls a day. Spots where conversations break. Rewrites the response. Tests it. Listens again. They are not an AI engineer. They are someone who understands the customer and knows what a good sales conversation sounds like. This person is the difference between AI calling that produces mediocre results and AI calling that makes your competitors wonder what you are doing differently. You would never hand a telemarketing agency a one-page brief and expect them to figure out your pitch. You would train them. Listen to their calls. Coach them weekly. AI calling is the same. Except the coaching is editing a prompt and the improvement deploys in seconds instead of weeks. We call over 30,000 leads a month now. We deployed AI for onboarding too. It moved our key metrics in ways I did not think were possible 18 months ago. But the reason it works is not the AI. It is the person on our team who has been shaping it every single day since we started.

Nobody is telling you how FUCKED this ceasefire situation actually is right now. I have a friend who works in defense intelligence analysis. He told me last week: "If Khamenei goes down, the Mosaic kicks in and nobody on Earth can turn it off with a phone call." That's when I knew this ceasefire was theater. Here's what happened in the last few hours: → Iran's new supreme leader "approved" the ceasefire from a hospital bed → US-Israeli intelligence says he's UNCONSCIOUS → The IRGC senior council used his name for legitimacy → IRGC cluster warheads were STILL hitting Israeli and Gulf cities AFTER the ceasefire The system that signed the deal and the system firing the missiles are TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS. 31 provincial commands. Each autonomous. Each with pre-delegated launch authority. Israel understood immediately. The IDF didn't pause. It struck a weapons crossing south of the Litani. It continued raids on Iranian targets. If the adversary's own architecture can't enforce the ceasefire, the ceasefire doesn't exist. The real crisis hasn't even started yet. if you're not following me you're finding out about this 48 hours late from someone who read my post.. it's only getting crazier from here..

The Iranian regime spent 47 years chanting "Death to America." It took Donald Trump one night to do the job. This is America's Suez. In 1956, Britain threatened Egypt, drew a hard line, and then folded under American pressure — retreating from a canal it had controlled for decades. The world didn't need a formal announcement to understand what had happened. The retreat itself was the announcement. Britain never recovered its imperial credibility. Within a generation, the empire was gone. Tonight, the United States threatened to erase a civilization if Iran didn't open the Strait freely. Ninety minutes before the deadline, it agreed to let Iran run the Strait — on Iran's terms, at Iran's price, in China's currency — and called it a victory. "For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran's Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations." That sentence, published by Tehran, is the tombstone. The US didn't contest it. The US didn't rebut it. The US went to bed. For 35 years, American military dominance in the Gulf rested on a single credible proposition: that no regional power could close the Strait without facing overwhelming consequences. That proposition is now gone. Iran closed it for 39 days, extracted a ceasefire on its own terms, institutionalized a toll system denominated in yuan, claimed sovereign authority over an international waterway, and watched the world's superpower declare victory on social media. Every adversary on earth watched tonight. Every ally did too.

WHAT THE ACTUAL FUCK DID I JUST DISCOVER😱😱😱😱 ACYPL allegedly linked with CIA, trains American and international leaders. Madhu Kishwar ji made this claim and I went to their official website and I literally saw Narendra Modi as alumnus 😭😭😭😭😭 MODI JI A CIA ASSET???????????? I CAN'T BELIEVE MY EYESSSSSSSS. IF THIS IS NOT TRUE, GOVT SHOULD SERIOUSLY LOOK INTO THIS MATTER, IT IS NOT A SMALL CLAIM !!!!!!!!

@sundarmail .