mwp

568 posts

mwp

mwp

@mwp_acm

ex- tech equity mm, electricity markets, still a baseball fan

USA Katılım Şubat 2012
566 Takip Edilen95 Takipçiler
mwp
mwp@mwp_acm·
@simongerman600 You lost me at “takes average of residential prices’. Most utilities have different tariff rates for EV.
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Simon Kuestenmacher
Simon Kuestenmacher@simongerman600·
I've been waiting for a map like this and would love to see it for more places: These are EV charging price by US state translated into gasoline prices so you get a like for like comparison of driving costs. Source: reddit.com/r/dataisbeauti…
Simon Kuestenmacher tweet media
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mwp@mwp_acm·
@Hedgeye if you "invested" $10k in CAR yesterday, you don't know the definition of invested.
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mwp@mwp_acm·
@wallstengine man, throw SiriusXM on there too. No way Earth Wind and Fire- After the Love can appear on Yacht Rock so often
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Wall St Engine
Wall St Engine@wallstengine·
Texas AG Ken Paxton said he’s investigating $SPOT Spotify, Apple Music, Pandora, Amazon Music & YouTube Music over alleged payola schemes, focusing on whether the platforms took undisclosed payments to boost songs, playlist placement, or recommendations in violation of Texas law
Wall St Engine tweet media
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mwp@mwp_acm·
@hughhewitt Every day, HBO’s Silicon Valley becomes more like a documentary
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Hugh Hewitt
Hugh Hewitt@hughhewitt·
Also from “News Items” and along the same lines (substack.news-items.com): “4. Financial Times: Senior international financial officials have warned the latest AI models from US tech companies could threaten the world banking system by exposing weaknesses in lenders’ cyber defense. As finance ministers, central bankers and regulators met this week in Washington for the IMF and World Bank spring meetings, their discussions were dominated by concern over the latest AI model developed by San Francisco-based start-up Anthropic. ‘It is a very serious challenge for all of us,’ said Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, who chairs the Financial Stability Board of global regulators. ‘It reminds us how fast the AI world moves.’ Bailey added that global regulators would need to rapidly evaluate the potential cyber security threat to the financial system from Anthropic’s new Claude Mythos Preview model. Until just over a week ago, most policymakers had expected the IMF and World Bank meetings to focus on the conflict in the Middle East, tensions in the private credit market and elevated levels of government debt. Instead, the ability of new AI models to wreak havoc in the world’s banking system was all many people wanted to talk about. (Source: ft.com)”
Hugh Hewitt@hughhewitt

I begin the news day with “News Items” from @EllisItems and his team. “News Items” does the work of a couple no dozen subscriptions. Here is the first item from this morning’s newsletter (substack.news-items.com): “1. We keep a list of stories about the stories that we think will be this decade’s most important. The list includes: The pandemic, Russia’s war on Ukraine, President Trump’s election in 2024, the third Gulf War, AlphaFold…you get the idea. There’s one “emerging” story that has the potential for becoming the most important financial and cybersecurity story of the 2020s. That story is about an AI model called Mythos: One balmy February evening in Bali, Nicholas Carlini stepped away between events at a wedding, opened his laptop, and set out to do some damage. Anthropic PBC had just made a new artificial intelligence model, called Mythos, available for internal review, and Carlini — a well-known AI researcher — intended to see what kind of trouble it could cause. Anthropic pays Carlini to stress-test its AI models to see whether hackers could leverage them for espionage, theft or sabotage. From Bali, where Carlini and his wife were attending an Indian wedding, he was staggered at what the model could do. Within hours Carlini found numerous techniques to infiltrate systems used around the world. Once Carlini was back in Anthropic’s downtown San Francisco office, he discovered Mythos was able to autonomously create powerful break-in tools, including against Linux, the open-source code that underpins most of modern computing. Mythos orchestrated the digital equivalent of a bank robbery: getting past security protocols and through the front door of networks, and breaking into digital vaults that gave it access to online treasures. AI had picked locks, but now it could pull off an entire heist. Carlini and some of his colleagues began alerting staff to what they’d found. And each day they continued to discover high-severity and critical bugs in the systems Mythos probed, the kind of flaws normally uncovered by the world’s best hackers. Meanwhile, Anthropic’s Frontier Red Team — a group of 15 “Ants,” or Anthropic employees — was experimenting in much the same way. The lab aims to ensure that Anthropic’s models can’t be used to harm humanity. They’ll ship in robotic dogs and place them in a warehouse with engineers to test whether Claude could be used to control them maliciously. Or consult with biologists to understand whether the chatbot could be used to create biological weapons. Now, they were realizing that the biggest risk Mythos posed was to cybersecurity. “Within hours of getting the model, we knew it was different,” says Logan Graham, who runs Anthropic’s Frontier Red Team. A previous model, Opus 4.6, had shown indications it could help people exploit vulnerabilities in software. Mythos could exploit the vulnerabilities on its own, Graham says. This was a national security risk, he warned Anthropic’s executives. That left Graham with the unenviable task of telling his bosses that their next major revenue generator was too hazardous to release to the public. (Read the whole thing. Italics mine. Sources: bloomberg.com, sullcrom.com)” Nothing to worry about. Nothing at all.

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US Oil & Gas Association
Good evening from the Coconut Tree @KamalaHarris Ma’am, (can we call you Ma'am?) we’ll keep this factual and review your actual record, not your reboot. As a U.S. Senator (2017-2021), you were an original cosponsor of the Green New Deal resolution (S.Res. 59). It directed the US to “divest from fossil fuels,” phase out oil, gas, and coal production and remake the entire economy around subsidized green mandates. Your 2020 campaign was shorter than a Garden Gnome but managed to work in these gems: You told the CNN town hall: “There’s no question I’m in favor of banning fracking.” On Jimmy Fallon’s Tonight Show: “We will end fracking once and for all” while committing to the Green New Deal. Your $10 trillion climate plan called for no new fossil fuel leases on federal lands, phasing out all oil & gas (even if renewables weren’t ready), a carbon fee, and doubling U.S. payments to the UN Green Climate Fund. Before that, as California Attorney General (2011-2017), you built a reputation suing our industry. The lawfare you pursued laid the foundation for the collapse of the California refining industry we are witnessing right now You even sued the Obama-Biden administration to block new offshore permits off California’s coast. Remember 2022? As VP, national gas prices hit $5+/gallon (over $6 in parts of CA). You told Americans those record prices were “a price to pay for democracy” for Ukraine. But apparently the freedom of millions of Irainian citizens are not worth $3.97 a gallon now? That seems - I don't know - selective? Bottom line. California still pays the nation’s highest gas prices — thanks to the taxes, mandates, and anti-production policies you championed for years. Flying cross country (made possible by jet fuel) to North Carolina to make a video isn't going to change that. And those are the facts - unburdened by what has been.
Kamala Harris@KamalaHarris

Here in North Carolina and around the country, gas prices are too high. This is a direct result of Donald Trump's war of choice in Iran, and the American people are paying the price.

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Alix Pasquet
Alix Pasquet@alixpasquet·
Murray Stahl passes and TPL goes down $4.8B in market cap yesterday. Murray owned TPL since the 90s. I met Murray some years ago as we were on a flight going to the same conference at Blackberry Farms in Tennessee. I looked across the aisle and there was a man reading a book called “Neither Friend Nor Foe: The European Neutrals In World War II”. My grandfather had a great saying: "always meet someone whom a book or a question introduces you to". So I introduced myself and we started one of the most interesting conversations I had had in years. I learned a ton. I had lunch with Murray once and asked him “how do I improve as a portfolio manager?” and he said “you have to Pareto Optimize your portfolio.” and he proceeded to explain that you needed to analyze and use criteria to force rank the 20% of your ideas that you believed would potentially generate 80% of your profits and size those more aggressively. Then you needed to identify the 20% of your ideas that you believe were potentially 80% of your losses and get out. Murray was versatile as a value investor. Just a few examples of his calls which showed his analytical wingspan. He was talking about owning Bitcoin in 2015 when the price was ~$300. Murray begin to speak about the SBC problems in tech (must read for today's issues in certain stocks. "THE SOCIOLOGY (AND TIPPING POINTS) OF STOCK COMPENSATION" is the memo) back in December of 2020, a reality that most investors have not even woken up to TODAY. Deepest condolences to the @horizonkinetics team. Thanks for teaching a generation of us, Murray. Wherever you are, the people there are improving, as are their returns. May your memory be a blessing. I know for me it will be.
Alix Pasquet tweet media
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mwp@mwp_acm·
@ParrotCapital Back of the envelope, given the math, don’t we have roughly thirteen years until we are screwed on this?
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EndGame Macro
EndGame Macro@onechancefreedm·
Private Credit Is Facing Its First Real Liquidity Test This is not mainly a private equity problem. It is a private credit problem centered in semi liquid funds sold to wealthy investors. These vehicles offered periodic liquidity while holding loans that are hard to sell quickly. Moody’s warned last year that this retail push could create run like pressure if withdrawal promises outran asset liquidity. That mismatch is now being tested. What institutions have done Since late 2025, the big firms have all been using different versions of the same playbook. Blue Owl scrapped a merger, sold $1.4 billion of assets, and changed liquidity terms in OBDC II. Blackstone met unusually large BCRED withdrawals by lifting its cap to 7% and adding $400 million of internal capital. BlackRock paid only to HLEND’s 5% threshold after requests rose to 9.3%. Morgan Stanley is the latest example, and Cliffwater has now capped repurchases at 7% after redemption requests surged. This is no longer one troubled fund. It is a sector wide liquidity test. Why now The backdrop is weakening credit quality and a growing fight over marks. The default rate in the U.S. private credit portfolio it tracks rose to a record 9.2% in 2025. Software is a key fault line. Software and tech make up a large share of the leveraged loan market, many borrowers sit at B- or below, and AI disruption is making lenders more cautious about future cash flows and refinancing. What is happening beneath the surface The real issue is the gap between stated NAV and true exit value. The gates are not the disease. They are the tool managers use to slow price discovery, avoid forced sales, and keep one fund’s stress from resetting marks across the whole complex. That is why asset sales, insider capital, and repurchase tweaks matter so much. They are all different ways of buying time. How this can cascade If redemptions keep rising, managers have to gate, sell assets, or support funds with sponsor capital. Those transactions create cleaner market prices. Banks then get less comfortable lending against similar portfolios. JPMorgan has started marking down some loan portfolios tied to private credit groups, while Bank of America has committed $25 billion to private credit as Wall Street keeps pushing deeper into the business. That is the contradiction. Institutions still want the economics, but investors are becoming less willing to treat these vehicles like cashable yield products. My read Private credit looked safer than it really was because steady inflows, generous marks, and low defaults masked the liquidity mismatch. What we are seeing now is the start of a repricing cycle where investors stop asking what the yield is and start asking what the loan book is really worth when people want out. Once that question spreads, a liquidity problem can become a credibility problem, and credibility is the one asset this market cannot afford to lose.
GIF
Financelot@FinanceLancelot

BREAKING: Morgan Stanley $MS has capped redemptions, returning less than half of the 10.9% that investors sought to cash out of North Haven Private Income.

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mwp@mwp_acm·
@JG_Nuke @SullyCNBC @CNBC no, but better than Chinese destroyers along side US. Reminds me of Fred Thompson scene in Hunt for Red Oct. This business will get out control. It will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it.
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Nobody Special
Nobody Special@JG_Nuke·
@SullyCNBC @CNBC Can't say I like the idea of sending US destroyers to escort oil shipments bound for China.
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PEoperator⚡️
PEoperator⚡️@PEoperator·
Coffee shops should have a separate line for those of us who just want black coffee.
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Gerald Posner
Gerald Posner@geraldposner·
The Middle East is being reshaped before our eyes—right now, in real time. Since covering the Gulf War in 1990, I've followed one iron rule: don't let speculation outrun facts. The talking heads are already screaming catastrophe, unintended consequences, WW3. Breathe. Let events unfold. X rewards speed. History rewards accuracy. Stay tuned. I'll keep reporting what we actually know—not what we fear.
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mwp@mwp_acm·
@nut_history my favorite team is the Twins....100% option 2
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BaseballHistoryNut
BaseballHistoryNut@nut_history·
You are a free agent. You only have two offers on the table Don't consider tax implications when making your decision 1. 3-year contract from your favourite team you grew up watching - $20M 2. 3-year contract from another team - $30M Which option you choosing?
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Tim Kennedy
Tim Kennedy@TimKennedyMMA·
Yes our Director of the FBI @FBIDirectorKash LOVES America and loves hockey. You are a bunch of whiny internet trolls if you are complaining about him being there to support the U.S.A 🇺🇸
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mwp@mwp_acm·
@FedProm Stay strong. Positive thoughts.
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FedProm 💃🏻
FedProm 💃🏻@FedProm·
We now have to tell the legacies that Mom has triple positive breast cancer. Yearly mammograms. One year clear. The next year cancer.
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mwp@mwp_acm·
@MadDogUnleashed @NBA this is me hearing the 8th Chuck McDowell commercial on MadDogUnleashed an hour and a half in.
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Chris Mad Dog Russo
Chris Mad Dog Russo@MadDogUnleashed·
This is why I can’t take the @NBA seriously! Try hosting with appendicitis then tell me about load management!!!
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Richard Rusk, Engineer
Richard Rusk, Engineer@RichardRusk007·
When I say sunshine is free I get the response that you need equipment with a capital cost. When you tell me nuclear fuel is energy dense I will tell you that you need equipment, licenses, and a way to guard the waste for a long time; decades after the electricity is gone. Go ahead and build some nuclear plants. The solar people are getting it done.
Constellation Clean Energy@CEGCleanEnergy

To power 100,000 homes for an hour: ⚛️ Nuclear: a tennis ball of uranium 🚌 Coal: two school buses of fuel ☀️ Solar: thousands of football fields of solar panels – plus massive batteries at night Higher energy density means lower land usage, cost and environmental impact.

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mwp@mwp_acm·
@nut_history that's me in the middle parked under the Grand Central Pkwy at the old Shea in the late 90s. Of course I needed to leave in the fourth.
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BaseballHistoryNut
BaseballHistoryNut@nut_history·
Parking lot at Braves Field during the first game of the 1916 World Series.
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World of Statistics
World of Statistics@stats_feed·
Your brain treats million, billion, and trillion like cousins. In reality, they live in different universes. • 1 million seconds ago → Jan 9, 2026 • 1 billion seconds ago → May 14, 1994 • 1 trillion seconds ago → ~29,700 BC
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