Nirvana
1.7K posts


This doesn't matter long-term - better alternatives exist. A BTC pump over the next decade creates a massive tailwind for decentralized, private stores of value, which is the real endgame anyway as retail hunts for the next BTC.
$ZEC
Guy@Credib1eGuy
I get we want number go up But do we not want a genuinely decentralized store of wealth? Creating a death spiral mechanic doesn’t inspire confidence long term
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I will try:
Neither side trusts the other, but both see benefits in a two-week ceasefire that would allow them to import and export goods through the Strait. They'll use the time to regroup and restock before resuming the fight two weeks later (unless a certain country sabotages things by deliberately breaking the ceasefire)
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@countdraghula why is regulatory approval needed for Fed to reduce its own holdings though?
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I find the stance against the size of the balance sheet to be an interesting one.
While there is some truth to Warsh's assertion, the size of the balance sheet is a function of regulatory requirements rather than any intentional move by the Fed.
To seriously reduce the size of the Feds balance sheet regulations would have to roll back to pre GFC where prime funds could buy short term bank bills. Maybe this could happen???
Alex Krüger@krugermacro
Kevin Warsh is rumored to be the incoming Fed Chair, with Trump's announcement expected tomorrow. The spike in Polymarket odds suggests a leak. Warsh has advocated for a structural overhaul of the Federal Reserve and a "new Treasury-Fed Accord." He posits that an AI-driven productivity boom is inherently disinflationary, providing the basis for aggressive rate cuts. He also contends that the Fed's balance sheet has been used to subsidize Wall Street and should be reduced significantly, signaling a strong stance against QE.
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@nftimm @goatdsalmon You are looking at round stats, I am looking at actual mint vs burn. That one negative day was for when the buyback wallet glitched and resumed.
I would love for this not to be the case, but the trend has been inflationary for the vast majority of days.

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Q for $ORE brains: why doesn’t long-run price just converge to ‘production cost + protocol rev’? What’s the actual SoV premium thesis on top of that? Why don’t miners / short-term users eventually arb away all excess?
Is it the limited supply argument of 5 million total coins? Or staking yield maybe, but that's reflexive to the downside too?
@OREsupply @HardhatChad @goatdsalmon
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not sure if btc continues to provide diminishing returns but it is certainly possible (i choose to believe it wont for now)
but alts (on average) will continue to get more difficult and dangerous to trade imo, irreversible trend.
(1) massive competition amongst increasingly sophisticated buyers (who simultaneously believe less)
(2) primarily traded on perps/with leverage.
(3) huge dilution in coins with mkt valuing stuff high by default without justification
(4) launch FDVs always capturing 100% of optimism for the asset without respecting price/valuarion
(5) too much pre-market price discovery for (4) to be safe
the average 2017 buyer buys spot and hodls weeks/months cos they believe, add on the way up, asset was trading at low val early so works out.
average 2025 buyer is buying on perps without checking the valuation and sells whenever their PNL goes red or force sells in liquidation.
however, it will remain the best place for returns for smart ppl. skill expression and asset selection is much more important. patience much more highly rewarded over being "early" on liquid markets last few years.
and then outlier assets will continue to exist, maybe 1 every couple of years, and when they turn up you can turn brain off and 2017 it.
imo anyways (hopefully)
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@sonder_crypto This would probably happen way less if perps didn’t exist.
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but it is a good question. i thought maybe no guests but ledger has missed 3 yrs of crypto so nothing to talk about without guests lol
* jeff + shoku
* prediction mkts
* light if he will do it again
* maybe arthur hayes, never came on before
* maybe some recent founders of ok stuff
* errrrr who else fk
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@cobie @zoomerfied Genuis move by Coinbase. Perfectly timed morale boost after a large swath of CT got wiped out.
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Hear Stanley Druckenmiller @standuquesne on what makes a great trader.
1. Ultra-competitive and indomitable will to win
2. Discipline no matter what system
3. Emotional regulation/control
“I think the main thing is you have to be disciplined, you have to be unemotional and to me the really great one’s you have to have courage and be able to play big when the opportunity is there”
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