Nived Gopakumar

Dan Sundheim wouldn't go public if he ran Stripe, says: "public markets are kind of problematic at this point" and "over the long term, stocks will go to intrinsic value. It’s taken longer than I’ve expected. I still believe it. I can’t tell you I have a lot of evidence"

The public seems to misunderstand what Venture Capital is. Early in my career, I used to call it the Great Ponzi Theory of Tech until I realized all of tech highest on “Reflexivity” or the concept that: At the earliest stage, VCs substitute market belief with cash. This allows founders to hire talent & reach milestones, unlocking more capital to repeat the cycle until the co goes from “fake” to real “overnight”. The only cos that matter are ones that can do $1b+ ARR in 7-10 yrs. Anything less is useless. Based on my track record, I expect 1 in 10 companies I invest in from the fund to be worth $1b+. The rest might as well round to $0 because I will make all my money on those 5 cos. At the time of investment, I expect that if things go right, each co I invest in will return my fund at a certain valuation based on my initial ownership. Each investment is a positive Expected Value bet. However, 50% of companies fail outright, 20%-40% stick around and just become “zombies” or get acquired for small amounts, and the last 10% (in my case) become meaningful “fund returners”. This is called the “Power Law”. So YES, VCs do burn millions (billions actually) on companies that seem crazy from the outside, but that’s because we are looking to be the “Reflexive” change agent that catalyzes the birth of a billion dollar company (which is so rare, we call those companies unicorns).

$PLTR is a generational company. It’s never too late to invest in the most important software company in the world. Just sayin’

The impact of the new CBA is hilarious. No Klay in GS, PG was sacrificed, the Nuggets are dismantling their team, the Celtics owner is selling rather than being the guy to break them up. This is the NBA they wanted? Just so Tobias Harris and Jonas can make a little more?

Again, Celtics making use of the inverted dunker spot alignment on drives. Tatum gets the Luka switch, Jrue drifts to the strong-side dunker spot to make Kyrie the helper. Luka allows Tatum to blow by, Kyrie's help is negligible because he's small, Tatum layup.