Not Bill Clinton (I Feel/Your Pain)

Further discussion with @it_is_fareed On reflection it seems like ok, the geoconfirmation is solid, but do we actually know that the rocket that somehow failed caused the hospital explosion? Maybe that's not so clear? But then you have to ask: all right, so a rocket fails or is hit and then five or six seconds later there is a giant explosion underneath where the rocket was hit. What are the odds that it just happened to be ANOTHER rocket? So. (1) Guy quoted upthread has a theory that it was a "heat seeking missile" fired at rocket launchers by israel that locked onto the hospital but I'm FAIRLY confident that's not how interceptors work. I'm pretty sure they use radar or at least use it in conjunction with infrared, which would probably(?) mitigate the likelihood of hitting the ground. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Dome And I haven't seen any other reports of "oops we hit a building" with interceptors. This doesn't mean it can't happen but it does make me more skeptical. Finally, these rockets seem like they'd only just been fired afaict, which makes me think it's less likely that it was an interceptor on account of those take time to travel. Further, from Iron Dome videos i've seen I have the vague impression they tend to intercept somewhat far from the initial launch site. If all of this feels extremely fuzzy and uncertain to you: correct, i don't know what i'm talking about. (2) Maybe it was some kind of counterbattery attack by Israel that misfired: they saw the launches and struck out at the site of the launch with something other than an interceptor. Do these exist? Perhaps! I have no idea, but let's entertain it; it's not implausible. Now you have to consider two explanations for the hospital: - Israel's counterbattery is occasionally unreliable - Hamas/PJI/whatever was firing rockets from the hospital The first seems like a rare but not crazy event; the second seems plausible but now there are more questions raised. (3) Another possibility: maybe another Hamas rocket misfired or was badly aimed. If the rocket failure rate is 30-40% as claimed, sure, this isn't crazy; it was a large barrage. Overall these things seem un-parsimonious to me and I think the single missile failure remains the most likely story. But of course I can't rule them out on account of que sçay-je. x.com/eigenrobot/sta…

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