nilay dalal

The scariest thing about the surge in semis is that people have totally lost touch with what's actually investable. It's already the most cyclical of cyclical industries, so even the highest quality, with decades of proven endurance, will have ugly boom-busts in their charts. Far uglier than most industries. The difference though with say, $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC, $MPWR, $ASML is that even with the boom-busts, the charts are up and to the right over the cycles. Same cannot really be said about most of the chip stocks you see X talking about lately, for those names which have been around long term. For many (most?) you would have lagged the S&P owning them last 10 to 25+ years. Take $AEHR as example. Super small-cap. Compare their long term chart to $TER. Both very boom-bust but one much worse than other, which is why - if you're going to buy Aehr Test - you need to get it super cheap. Its long term CAGR only calculates out favorably at present because of the insane vertical chart. And no, their full-wafer + high-power burn-in is not enough of a selling point. Would rather stick with Teradyne and Advantest as proven buy and hold names, because when these all go down, they should go down less. Even at last April's tariff lows, I preferred TER and broader peers for testing and metrology like KLAC, $ONTO, and Tokyo Electron. Onto was about as low as I would go in terms of quality and small size. It's also not that I'm against small cap. However, $CAMT and $NVMI higher quality, which I did buy. Though I guess their market caps are more mid-cap now. To be clear it's not that I dislike $AEHR but rather, the risk reward of buying here. You need to be thinking of downside risks, first. Not potential upside. I prefer not to own stocks where, the largest catalyst for them, is X subs pumping them hard. If my stocks happen to have that happen later, fine. Though, I want nothing to do with initiating a position during that chase. With the exception of some analog and a few others, pretty much all chips are up hundreds of percent in 12 months. First screenshot is chips stock sorted by lowest market value, first. Note that lowest $IONQ, $INFQ, $XNDU, $P all from past few weeks so lower percentages. Some also show lower percent gains due to recent adds, averaging them up. Second screenshot is opposite, from highest to lowest market value, with obvious emphasis towards quality. Fab 5 are my favorite but also some $NVDA, etc. $SNPS and $CDNS are about the only high quality still reasonably priced, because of their software categorization. As you know I added 400 $NVDA at 160s a few weeks ago, but would not buy now. That doesn't mean it's not going to $240 or $260. I'm not thinking of that. I'm thinking, what are odds it goes to $180? The other ~1/3rd of stocks in the middle are not shown, but weightings in-between. Everything way too green. Also I have some international chip stocks like $BESVF, $TOELF, and $LSRCF which I couldn't move to Robinhood but they are up hundreds of percent in just one year, too. I really like Tokyo Electron. Plus have one private company. I am intentionally writing this post on a big red day for this sector because on green day, no one wants to hear the truth. The time to buy chip stocks is when it seems like the cycle is over, or may be approaching such point earlier than expected. Not when it seems like it has a long runway ahead and there's nothing that can stop it. You've been warned.

BUY THE DIP? We added the ‘Should You Buy the Dip?’ regime indicator on the Lumida Invest app. It successfully navigated the Feb / March correction and turned risk on in early April. That is its first Forward Test. The indicator is accessible by clicking thr new Market Color feature. Then scroll down. All you really need to do is see if it says Risk On or Risk Off to keep it simple. The system has been on Risk On since early April. All of the data is point in time, as reported. I use it as a tool. I have also attached the Market Color ‘Morning Brief’ at the top… This morning it said ‘Markets Are Unambiguously Risk On’ It’s a great way to understand what is driving markets.

Here are SIX wide-MOAT businesses that I wouldn't mind owning for the next 10-years... 1. $TSM - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturer - Forward Guidance: ~32% YoY