@leftrestoration Surely that means Labour voters must back the Greens to stop the right? I thought that’s how this worked?
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Oli
259 posts
The cold hard proof that the green ascent means a Reform government
Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️⚧️@LeftieStats
@LordAPolls 🗳️ Projected seats based on Ashcroft survey: ➡️ Ref: 174 (+169) 🔵 Con: 168 (+47) 🟢 Grn: 119 (+115) 🟠 Lib: 62 (-10) 🟡 SNP: 47 (+38) 🔴 Lab: 31 (-380) Based on @LordAPolls, 26-30 Mar (+/- vs GE2024)
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@BareLeft @RossMcCaff Mass Psychology of Fascism by Wilhelm Reich is brilliant for this
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Think we really underestimate how much hardline conservatism is linked to psychosexual impulses, because you just know he means the photos of Mahmood inspecting a concentration camp while dressed as a Value Range Nazi.
chuck bass@THEZONEEEEEE
I’m sorry is he insane?
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@Alex_Niven It’s probably closer to 20 seats for Reform, could end up with a Lib Dem/Green administration.
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Not sure of the provenance of this, and suspect the Greens will do better in Newcastle, but it should be a wake up call
Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️⚧️@LeftieStats
‼️POLL | Reform to GAIN Newcastle Council ➡️ Ref: 45 (+45) 🟠 Lib: 14 (-9) 🔴 Lab: 10 (-35) 🟢 Grn: 6 (+4) ⚪️ Ind: 1 (-3) 🔵 Con: 0 (-1) Source: @Bombeplatform, Mar '26 (+/- vs 2023)
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@lesthecroc Polanski is Corbyn2.0 confirmed, he’s even got his own engagement farmers now
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@LabourBerry @Saffiya_Khan1 Do you only believe polls where Labour are ahead of the Greens? Because you might run out of polls to believe in soon
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I reckon we’re now only a couple of polls away from The Green Party becoming numero uno
Election Maps UK@ElectionMapsUK
Westminster Voting Intention: RFM: 25% (-2) GRN: 20% (+7) CON: 18% (-3) LAB: 15% (-3) LDM: 14% (+1) SNP: 2% (-1) Via @VerianGroup, 20-23 Mar. Changes w/ 12-15 Dec.
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@sallonsax @breadandposes The party is going to get bigger than 220k, conferences should be as big as possible. We need to get better at mass politics and fast.
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@breadandposes 220k people aren't going to turn up to conference.
There's already an access fund for people, like myself, who don't earn a lot of money.
And we've already got to the point we are now with in person conferences, I don't think that's such a massive issue.
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The greens are going to have to come up with a better answer than this for their conferences. It won't work with 220,000 like it did with 16,000. The ability for wealthy to dominate in person conferences would be overwhelming
Alexander Louis Sallons@sallonsax
Ban online conferences.
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@OdysseusLatinae @nigelbrewer1066 @ElectionMapsUK So the greens will go from 6% to 15% nationally, but 19% to 13% in this seat? I mean IOW east even voted 14% Green (notionally) in 2019.
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@oae3108 @nigelbrewer1066 @ElectionMapsUK Recent models and projections point strongly toward Reform UK gaining the seat. Electoral Calculus currently forecasts a Reform gain from CON, with Reform on ~38.6% predicted vote share, Conservatives dropping to ~27.2%, Greens at ~13.4%.
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General Election Nowcast - 15/03/26:
RFM: 288 (+283), 27.2% (37 Short)
LAB: 81 (-330), 19.2%
LDM: 81 (+9), 12.2%
CON: 60 (-61), 18.0%
GRN: 58 (+54), 15.7%
SNP: 45 (+36), 2.7%
PLC: 11 (+7), 1.3%
Oth: 7 (+2), 3.7%
electionmaps.uk/nowcast
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Reenactment group that reenacts sessions of a rubber-stamp one-party legislature
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@JakinsDyla2576 @FootballCliches Level 1: AngryGinge at the Copper Box Arena
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@FootballCliches Can you please add Baller League to Happy Hunting Grounds Adam, give the people what they want
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@OdysseusLatinae @nigelbrewer1066 @ElectionMapsUK In 2024 it was 31% tory, 21% reform, 19% green, 19% labour, 10% lib dem. It’ll be close between the Greens and Reform.
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@nigelbrewer1066 @ElectionMapsUK Greens are pretty present on IOW, have been for about a decade. Could definitely see it going Green as they’re the clear tactical voting choice over Labour/Liberals
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@ElectionMapsUK You have Isle of Wight East going Green. They're currently Conservative, I doubt very much that's going to happen!
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@breadandposes Lib Dem voters may well be so posh that they think they’re only “financially stable”
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Libdems getting lowest share of "comfortable off" just isn't credible in the slightest. Look at where they're winning seats.
Ipsos in the UK@Ipsos_in_the_UK
Voting intention by financial wellbeing segments. Labour lead with comfortably off and Reform UK with all other groups - including the financially vulnerable.
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@breadandposes What makes you think that? All the models have it at 80-100 seats or so
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It's why I think everyone is underpricing the greens winning seats in circumstances where there are genuinely 5 competitive parties in England. Their voter base is perfectly designed to win 200 seats on 20% imo.
Ipsos in the UK@Ipsos_in_the_UK
Voting intention by age group 18-24 🟢Greens lead Labour by 11 35-54 🔵Reform lead the Greens by 3 55+ 🔵Reform lead the Conservatives by 15
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@robjeffecology Luke Tryl doing everything he can to keep Labour afloat in the polls
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@_Evolutionism @AaronBastani About 7% for SNP/Plaid/Northern Ireland. So other 2% for independents and other parties.
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Jenrick really was when Reform started to lose its riz, huh.
Election Maps UK@ElectionMapsUK
Westminster Voting Intention: RFM: 27% (-5) LAB: 20% (=) CON: 18% (+1) GRN: 14% (+1) LDM: 12% (+1) Via @BMGResearch, 4-5 Mar. Changes w/ 28-29 Jan.
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@jdpon_super_fan What’s your local one? There’s always some guy in mine ranting about israel and zionists which is much appreciated.
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@oae3108 God im jealous, its sort of left-lib in mine. Might get drunk tonight and tell them about the yahud
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cant say too much for Opsec's sake but if your only connection to politics was a local Green Party group chat you'd have no idea there was a war going on
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Like why would you get a bus down to London to walk around while you KNOW that all these celebrities will have a VIP tent waiting for them at the end of it all.
Ewan Cameron@gaoblai
Someone want to tell me whether the Together Alliance march has any concrete demands or...? The website just has a list of slebs and NGOs but what exactly is the point?
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Oli retweetledi
🗳️| 🟩 The Green Party’s Top 30 target seats.
We examine 30 seats they’re likely to target at the next general election and assess their chances in each. We also add five surprise-value seats that could come into play. @brad_dylon @oae3108
politicsbettingclub.co.uk/blogs/the-gree…
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Oli retweetledi
Big thanks to @oae3108 — he’s been spot on from the start. Predicted the candidate before she was even mentioned and has been providing feedback from the ground in G&D. He’s also written two other blogs for us on the Greens/Polanski. Well worth reading.
Politics Betting Club@politicsbetclub
🗳️| NEW: The Case for a Green Victory in Gorton & Denton. “Now the path is clear for the Greens, they have a real shot at winning their first Northern constituency”🟩@oae3108 politicsbettingclub.co.uk/blogs/the-case…
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