Omid Jahanbin

@ZayvenKnox Claude

An Anthropic engineer paid for my espresso at Sightglass when he saw my screen I was running my Polymarket bot from the counter. He was next in line. Looked over my shoulder. Stopped scrolling. "That's not a normal trading app. What's it actually running on" I told him. Claude Code. Four repos. $25 a month. He sat down without asking. "I'm on the agent team. We stress test Claude for exactly this. You're letting it find its own edges" Not just edges. Wallets. 86 million trades. Every wallet. Every entry. Every exit. "You're feeding Claude raw wallet data and letting it identify who consistently wins. Then cloning them" He said it slowly. Like he was writing the threat model in his head. One prompt. Find every wallet with 100 plus trades and win rate above 70%. Rank by profit. Export top 50. Claude scanned 14,000 wallets in 4 minutes. Returned 47. The top 20 made more than the bottom 13,000 combined. "That's not a stat. That's a hit list" Exactly. "And you didn't write the scoring function" Claude did. I just wired it into an if-statement. Then I showed him the second repo. Official Rust CLI. No API key for reads. 500 markets, Claude scores them in minutes. Gap. Depth. Resolution window. 487 markets become 35 before a dollar moves. 93% killed before I even see them. A green fill landed on the screen. +$84. He watched it hit. "How does it decide to actually enter" Three agents. Shared wallet. No shared memory. Arbitrage, convergence, whale copy. 2 agree, full size. 1 alone, half. Disagree, no trade. Consensus filter alone killed 40% of losing trades. "And the exits?" The 47 whales never hold to settlement. 91% exit early. 73% of max profit captured. Redeploy immediately. My bot cuts at 85% of expected move or on a 3x volume spike. "You built a whale copy bot that exits before the whales" Yeah. He put his espresso down. "How often does it trade" 10 a day on average. Most of them skipped before I look up from my coffee. My setup: Claude API - $20/mo VPS in Germany - $5/mo poly_data - free polymarket-cli - free Polymarket/agents - free $200 seed. 27 days ago. $14,300 now. Copytrade here: t.me/KreoPolyBot?st… 271 trades. 74% win rate. Sharpe 2.47. I haven't touched it in 27 days. He stared at the screen for a long time. "This is literally what our red team simulates. Except you actually shipped it" He emailed me the next morning. "Any chance you'd take a call with our policy lead" I told him the article is the call. Read it twice. Too late to gatekeep. You only need Claude + laptop + 1 hour/day. Giving This Free for 24 hours. To get it: 1. Comment the word 'Claude' 2. Like and Retweet this post 3. Follow me @ZayvenKnox

@chamath AI power constraints framed as ‘hyperscalers win, model labs lose’ assumes those are separate teams. Anthropic trains on AWS and GCP. OpenAI runs on Azure and Oracle. If the labs are power-starved, hyperscaler AI revenue is power-starved with them. The constraint is upstream of everyone.

Hey @Hanes, are you the next personal garment company to pivot to AI? DM me the deets 📈🚀🌜

S&P just hit a new all-time high. Wall Street is popping champagne, calling it a “recovery” and “risk-on rebound.” Meanwhile:
CPI just spiked to +3.3% YoY (biggest jump in years, energy +10.9% in a month).
 UMich consumer sentiment crashed to 47.6 — an ALL-TIME LOW in 74 years of data. This isn’t strength. It’s the same old story: the asset economy is completely divorced from the real one. Portfolios up. Paychecks wrecked by gas, groceries, and rent. Two Americas. One’s winning. The other’s just trying to survive the month. Wake up.

3/ The companies that survive this aren't the ones hoping for a Fed pivot. They're the ones that built lean, generated real cash, and didn't bet the balance sheet on cheap money continuing forever. Boring fundamentals (and defense corps) win again.

🧵 1/3: The Iran war just did something tariffs couldn't — it made inflation a 2026 problem again. Oil at $98. Core PCE at 3.1%. GDP at 0.7%. The Fed can't cut. Growth is stalling. Stocks just closed their 3rd straight down week.

2/ Everyone's blaming geopolitics. But the structure was already fragile. You can't run a $2T deficit, keep rates at 4%+, and expect businesses to invest. The war didn't create the risk. It just made it impossible to pretend the risk wasn't there.

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@DougMcMillon How does @Walmart, one of the largest retailers in the world, not have tap payments? Literally my next-door neighbor kid who sells 3-D prints has tap.

@F_Compounders @grok main takeaway as an individual investor, not necessarily in BRK

Berkshire 2025 Annual Report Written by Greg Abel berkshirehathaway.com/2025ar/2025ar.…

@bencera @OneManSaas @bencera any primer or guide you’d recommend… starting to reach point need to scale differently

@OneManSaas It feels like a video game at this point. To be fair i’m not alone. Claude code & codex always by my side, and a bunch of agents in production self-reporting and self-healing the system. 2026.

$100K→$500K run rate in 10 days. One founder. Zero employees. This is the entire operation.

Most people are reluctant to take in information that is inconsistent with what they have already concluded. When I ask why, a common answer is: "I want to make up my own mind." These people seem to think that considering opposing views will somehow threaten their ability to decide what they want to do. Nothing could be further from the truth. Taking in others' perspectives in order to consider them in no way reduces your freedom to think independently and make your own decisions. It will just broaden your perspective as you make them. #principleoftheday

@chamath This framework is clean but incomplete. Intelligence isn’t just p × c × a — it’s (p × c × a) × d. Data is the gradient signal that makes the other three useful. Without differentiated data, scale just converges models to the same ceiling.

I have a simplified conjecture about AI progress. Your mileage may vary but here it is. f(i) = p × c × a where i=intelligence, p=power, c=compute, a=algorithms, multiplied together. This means neglecting any variable creates a ceiling and any breakthrough compounds across all three. One caveat is that today's advances are more accurately shaped by the entire history of prior investment, not just a discrete investment or breakthrough in time. In other words, the variables have memory over time so that must be factored in. In any event, the chart below is interesting because it shows the major tech companies operationalizing this function… If f(i) accelerates quickly, there is a point in f(i) where the gap between the haves and have-nots is so stark that negotiating leverage will flip instantly. This is the bet that Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta are making. This is why they are buying as much of p, c and a as possible to make sure they own the leverage that comes from f(i). Meanwhile Apple is cutting capex. Apple's implicit assumption is: “AI capability is an input we can buy, not a moat we need to build. We own the distribution and last mile so let’s wait and license the intelligence when a winner is more clear. It’s a feature that needs distribution not a platform that reallocates winners and losers.” It's a rational bet today but it's also the kind of bet that can look obvious until the day it isn't.

Told my OpenClaw assistant: "build an interactive visualization of Ray Dalio's economic variables" 4 min later: live site w/ 9 variables, 6 countries, dynamic narratives. No IDE. Conversation → deployed code. dalio-economic-machine.netlify.app @RayDalio #AI #Agents #Productivity

@eberrywhere @DFWAirport @AmericanAir Just be honest: you (@AmericanAir) requested the ground stop at DFW due to staffing shortages.

Stuck on the tarmac at @DFWAirport after landing—7 planes ahead of us with no gates assigned. Snow on the ground but weather’s fine, this is ridiculous! @AmericanAir, light a fire and get us moving. #DFWDelays #AirTravelFail

Totally crushing w/ @FactoryAI Droids + 5.2 + Flash for some pretty sophisticated high-speed, multi-threaded use cases. Implications staggering. 🚀

@emollick Living in your personal matrix > the cold reality of AI fact checking

It is kind of shocking how little AI assistance has influenced the discourse on this site, given there is a button next to every post that lets you ask a solid AI to fact check the details. It does a pretty good job. This has made no difference at all in the spread of nonsense.

OpenAI’s Deep Research model just blew away others on Humanity’s Last Exam (3K challenging questions from top experts across hundreds of domains). These questions are insane:

And windex.

This. 👏